The FTSE 2006

All this short talk - whatever happened to the trend is your friend. Surely someone's been happily riding along since the last serious dip in October and/or consistently favouring longs on pullback?

Mind you the fund selling season is drawing to a close so I dare say the new money inflow will tail off after a final burst from those who've forgotten about their ISAs.

good trading

jon
 
Interesting extract from Nils Pratley in todays Guardian

The FTSE 100 spent much of yesterday above 6,000 points for the first time since March 8 2001. It didn't quite last, the closing level was 5,999.4. But if you bought the index on March 12 2003 you would now be enjoying an 82% return. On that day one person advised investors to ignore the general panic. Alastair Ross Goobey, who led the giant Hermes pension fund for years, told a sceptical world it was the best opportunity for buying shares for a generation. Stock market calls do not come much better than that.

So what does Ross Goobey make of 6,000? "I don't think you can say it's overstretched, but it's not cheap.The great change would happen if [companies'] profitability started to fall, if economies started to slow down in 2006 & 2007."

There's the rub. Right now, the western business world seems awash with cash, and the roots can be traced directly to the explosion of the dotcom bubble. Appetites for risk diminished, which for many companies meant reducing capital expenditure. We're preparing for tough times, they said. The lean years never really arrived. Western consumers continued to fly, shop and upgrade their mobile phones. The housing market did not collapse and banks did not stumble under the weight of bad loans. The result, for many companies, has been record profit margins. It happened because central bankers provided us with cheap money and cheap mortgages. What changes when that tap is turned off - especially in America, where the national debt is growing at $2bn a day - has yet to be seen. Conventional wisdom says profits and returns should revert to their long-term averages.

But perhaps not just yet. Cash is a potent fuel for any stock market. When it arrives in the form of takeover bids, it rarely pays to underestimate the speed at which prices move. Fifteen months ago, the LSE was braced for a bid from Deutsche Börse at 530p a share; last week it rejected a 950p offer from Nasdaq and could now face a fresh assault at up to £15. Similar stories have been seen across the market. As long as the bids keep coming, many investors will worry about missing out. We're still almost 1,000 points below the all-time high and the journey from 5,000 to 6,000 took little more than 12 months. History suggests it will take a little longer to achieve the high-water mark of the dotcom era.

Stock market historian David Schwartz argues that any bull run of 36 months is due a correction. True, 1991-1997 was a recent counter-example, but you have to go back to the 1950s to find others. "When everybody is euphoric it's usually a sign that the market is about to run out of steam," Schwartz says. He is not in the business of identifying causes, but there are plenty to choose from - such as the threat of civil war in Iraq, Iran's nuclear ambition, a weakening dollar or a crisis in those emerging markets whose gains have made the Footsie's look modest. But that's the fascination and frustration of stock markets - if the prediction game was easy, we'd all be rich
 
The FTSE, Monday 20th March 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 5999, up 6.2pts [0.10%].
Range: 5992 - 6044.

I did say it would be an interesting day.

Last 5 TD: up 91pts [1.54%].
On the month: up 207pts [3.54%].

Friday's DOW:
11,279, up 26pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: up 203pts [1.82%].
On the month: up 286pts [2.59%].

All the markets are rising but appear to be slowing down. I anticipate a drop on Tuesday, thereafter a continued rise.

Friday's S&P 500
1307.25, up 1.92pts [0.15%].

Last 5 TD: up 25.67pts [2.%].
On the month: up 26.61pts [2.07%].

News items of note:

Telegraph - 'Gordon Brown is on course to meet his borrowing forecast for the first time in more than five years in his 10th Budget this week, as revenue pours into the Treasury from North Sea oil and the booming City of London.

The public finance figures for January showed the biggest ever surplus of £12.6bn, £5bn more than forecast, and there is an optimistic atmosphere inside the Treasury as officials prepare to release bumper public finance numbers for February tomorrow.

Brown received advance notice of the figures - which are collected jointly by the Treasury and the Office for National Statistics - in the middle of last week. Well- placed sources say that public spending has been well controlled and revenue is coming in "pretty much as expected" in the pre-Budget Report in December.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's anticipated an early morning dip after open. Monday's, a rise.

The PoM System: -0.0, interpretation: recommends that you take the day off as there is no clear indication.

Note: the last time the PoM system indicated a zero the FTSE rose 80pts!

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Web site down [yet again].

Economic Data:
Web site down.

The FTSE Monday based on present news and data: So far this year, the FTSE has risen 7 out of 9 Mondays; the DOW and S&P continue to plod along and there may be a small positive residual effect come early Monday morning; charts anticipate an early rise, but the POM says no major movement.

Early gut feeling: an up down day.

Will I bet? Not without the missing data. I could trawl the internet for the additional information, but its late. I may go a small Long based on historical data and cap it at 12pts, but seeing as I've not done enough homework I'll most likely walk the dog.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Closed 1/3 of my FTSE short for some good gains and also closed my CAC short. Looking to re-enter the CAC short on any bounce.
 
The FTSE, Tuesday 21st March 2006

Monday's results:
Close: 5991, down 7pts [0.13%].
Range: 5992 - 6044.

Last 5 TD: up 31pts [0.65%].
On the month: up 200pts [3.41%].

Monday's DOW:
11,274, down 5pts [0.05%].

Last 5 TD: up 198pts [1.77%].
On the month: up 281pts [2.54%].

Monday's S&P 500
1305.08, down 2.17pts [0.17%].

Last 5 TD: up 20.95pts [1.63%].
On the month: up 24.44pts [1.97%].

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Monday's anticipated a rise. Tuesday's, an early rise.

The PoM System: +0.5, interpretation: favours the small rise. Also recommends a 'no bet.'

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Charter Pan-European Trust
Dignity
HSBC Holdings
John Menzies
Kensington
Kingfisher
Osmetech
Weir
Wolseley

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Bank of England Minutes
12:30 UK Budget Report

The FTSE Monday based on present news and data: the DOW and SP struggled to make any headway and so the FTSE give up all of its early gains; FTSE may open up flat tomorrow; charts and PoM favour a small rise. Economic data and companies are the ones to watch.

Early gut feeling: same as today.

Will I bet? Nope. I can see tomorrow being a volitile day with a large swing prior to close, but up or down by end of play I don't really know as there are no strong signals.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
downbytheriver7 said:
Closed 1/3 of my FTSE short for some good gains and also closed my CAC short. Looking to re-enter the CAC short on any bounce.
Click to expand...

Closed my FTSE and CAC shorts into the early morning dip and now on the sidelines. Inclined to re-enter short positions on the FTSE and go long NDX.
 
The FTSE, Wednesday 21st March 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5991, down 0.04pts [0.01%].
Range: 5956 - 5992.

Last 5 TD: up 0.68%.
On the month: up 3.41%.

Tuesday's DOW:
11,235, down 40pts [0.36%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.38%.
On the month: up 1.95%.

Tuesday's S&P 500
1297.23, down 0.60%.

Last 5 TD: down 0.02%.
On the month: up 1.30%.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's anticipated an early rise. Wednesday's have no clear indication but favour a rise.

The PoM System: +2.0, interpretation: favours the small rise. Also recommends a 'no bet.'

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Evolution
Imperial Tobacco
Kesa Electricals
Ted Baker
Vernalis

Economic Data:
[apologies for the wrong data posted yesterday]
09:30 UK Bank of England Minutes
12:30 UK Budget Report

Areas to watch: Miners and Oil.

The FTSE based on present news and data: another day where the FTSE wandered around drunk on news and company results not knowing which way was home; the DOW and S&P shuffled south after the FTSE closed so anticipate a 8-15pt drop early morning; the big question is, has the FTSE's position been factored in prior to Mr Browns Budget? look to economic results for the FTSE's direction tomorrow; company results: all but Imperial Tobacco should be tame; charts are unclear but PoM has a factor of +2 with a recommendation of a 'no bet' due to the economic data.

Early gut feeling: another volitile day, but I favour a rise by end of play.

Will I bet? Have a feeling the miners will bounce back, that the market will respond positivly to the budget report, and as such, will wait until the market settles and go a small Long. The FTSE has been marking time for the past three days, and I think it's about to make a decision one way or another. I'm confident its headed North. Lets see.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Umm it's all looking abit toppy out there FTSE and CAC specifically. Short the FTSE from 5990. Still hankering after a long on the NDX at a good entry point though. Sure we will see 5950 tested again and possibly 5900. Anyone looking at the long side from here?
 
6k is holding on the futures at the moment.


FTSE seems to have completely decoupled from the SPX.

Futures just hit new intraday high.
 
Last edited:
Morris said:
6k is holding on the futures at the moment.


FTSE seems to have completely decoupled from the SPX.

Futures just hit new intraday high.
Click to expand...

Maybe there will be a Gordon effect later on...
 
The FTSE, Thursday 23rd March 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 6007, up 16pts [0.27%].
Range: 6012 - 5957.

Last 5 TD: up 0.71%.
On the month: up 3.69%.

Wednesday's DOW:
11,317, up 82pts [0.73%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.96%.
On the month: up 2.92%.

Wednesday's S&P 500
1305.04, up 0.60%.

Last 5 TD: up 0.16%.
On the month: up 1.91%.

As we can see, the FTSE is well up on the month compared to our American counterparts, yet well behind on the day. Expect some positive shuffling tomorrow.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's had no clear indication but favoured the rise. Thursday's a rise.

The PoM System: +5.53, interpretation: favours a strong rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
First Choice Holidays
Friends Provident [should be interesting]
Investec [high hopes for this one]
M&C Saatchi
Next [the one to watch, may disappoint]
Prostrakan
Sanctuary


Economic Data:
11:00 UK CBI Industrial results Mar.

Areas to watch: Miners are still shuffling.

The FTSE based on present news and data: the FTSE has yet to react to the American markets decent rise, therfore expect the FTSE to open up between 12-22pts; charts and PoM favour a rise; company reports are mixed and economic news is tame.

Early gut feeling: a rise.

Will I bet? Yup. Although the PoM result is strong I'm not expecting a big leap, assuming its correct. Going a small Long. Anticipating that market will open up strong so the entry level will be the problem.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
Since March 2003 there has been no significant pull back and lately the chart is turning parabolic, you could almost say it's gone banana(s)

In July 98 the ftse reached 6187 and the sky was the limit. By October it went as low as 4640, that's a drop of 1547 points or exactly 25%.

If history were to repeat (and I have every confidence that it will, sooner or later) a drop of 25% from the current level would amount to a drop of approx. 1500 points from say 6000 to 4500.

Last time it only took from July to October to achieve this. With the derivatives markets being out of control (so says Warren Buffet, and he should know one when he sees one) the drop could be even faster this time round.

Not long ago dc2000 (where are you mate?) was confident of a drop in the dow of 1000 points in two days happening at some point in the not too distant future, that's the magnitude of falls that one would encounter.

Until such time though, it's party time. Let's drink, be merry and think that indices can only go up.
 

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Nice chart! Wonder if we have another 100-200 pts upside first though. I am at these levels bearish on the CAC and FTSE and will take the trades as they come but I am looking at the short side with more conviction.
 
I'm with you on this Mark, a few more weeks before things turn south. I'm waiting until then for the most part, took a heavy wack a few days ago and need time to lick my wounds!

(Though a 100 pip score would do it for me!)
 
The FTSE, Friday 24th March 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5990, down 17pts [0.29%].
Range: 6029 - 5974.

Last 5 TD: down 0.05%.
On the month: up 3.40%.

Thursday's DOW:
11,270, down 46pts [0.41%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.16%.
On the month: up 2.51%.

Tuesday's S&P 500
1301.67, down 0.26%.

Last 5 TD: down 0.28%.
On the month: up 1.65%.

News items of note:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - 'The pace of home resales in the United States picked up by 5.2 percent in February, defying forecasts for a slowdown, as warm weather boosted single-family and condo sales, according to trade group data on Thursday that showed a pause in the market's cool-down.

Sales of existing U.S. homes rose to a 6.91 million unit annual rate in February, halting a string of monthly declines, after January's upwardly revised 6.57 million unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said.

Analysts had expected sales to slow to a 6.50 million unit pace in February, and the surprising increase sent the dollar rallying against the euro. It pushed U.S. Treasury debt prices lower, and stock prices for major U.S. homebuilders climbed.' - Lets hope for a knock-on effect here in the UK.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's stated a rise. Friday's, a rise by end of play.

The PoM System: +0.75, interpretation: favours a rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
House of Fraser [the one to watch]
Intl Quamtum Epitaxy

Economic Data:
None.

The FTSE based on present news and data: the American markets moved decisivly South with the FTSE hobbling close behind and so their movement has, by a degree, already been factored in; charts and PoM favour a rise, but if HoF's results are dire expect a nervous market.

Early gut feeling: neutral edging towards a rise.

Will I bet? Carrying over yesterdays battered Long. Stop gap ammended.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
The FTSE, Monday 27th March 2006

Friday's results:
Close: 6036, up 46pts [0.77%].
Range: 6037 - 5990.

It did better then I anticipated, which was nice :D

Last 5 TD: up 0.62%.
On the month: up 4.17%.

Friday's DOW:
11,279, up 9pts [0.08%].

Last 5 TD: up 0.01%.
On the month: up 2.59%.

Friday's S&P 500
1301.71, up 0.10%.

Last 5 TD: down 0.33%.
On the month: up 1.75%.

News items of note:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - 'U.S. stocks could advance this week if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as anticipated, while major indexes continue to flirt with five-year highs.

Investors also will get more data on the closely watched housing market when No. 3 U.S. home builder Lennar Corp. posts its quarterly results on Tuesday.

On Friday, investors pushed stocks higher after a surprisingly sharp drop in new U.S. home sales in February suggested the Federal Reserve may stop raising rates sooner than expected. Shares of home builders, however, initially fell on the news before recovering later in the day.'

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'London is tipped for mild declines when the bell sounds following a weak close on Wall Street on oil price and interest rate worries.

Tesco could buck the trend on a report this morning that it is considering placing its £12bn freehold property portfolio into a Real Estate Investment Trust.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Friday's stated a rise by end of play. Monday's indicate a potential early dip, no indication thereafter.

The PoM System: -0.7, interpretation: favours a weak dip.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Allergy Therapeutics
MTL Instruments
Temple Bar

Economic Data:
None till Wednesday.

The FTSE based on present news and data: the FTSE may open down between 5-8pts, even so, it's still looking much stronger then its American counterparts; charts and PoM have no strong indication; no economic news and company results are tame. The FTSE will most likeky move with early morning business news.

Early gut feeling: neutral

Will I bet? Nope. Too close to evens.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK
 
- 'U.S. stocks could advance this week if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as anticipated"
- 'London is tipped for mild declines when the bell sounds following a weak close on Wall Street on oil price and interest rate worries."

Hmm, that is a bit, uh, well, uh conflicting?
 
footsie needed dow to help it rise friday. will be watching dow futures for hints monday. i expect 20point fall in first hour. all imo. dyor.
 
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