The FTSE 2006

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 8th March 2006

Tuesday's results:
Close: 5857, down 40pts [0.69%].
Range: 5830 - 5897.

Last 5 TD: up 65pts [1.13%].
On the month: as above.

We're still in a Yo-Yo period with the FTSE and I see no reason for it to change until after the rates decision on Thursday.

Tuesday's DOW:
10,980, up 22pts [0.20%].

Last 5 TD: down 12pts [-0.11%].
On the month: as above.

Tuesday's S&P 500
1275.88, down 2.38pts [-0.19%]

News items of note:
VIENNA (Reuters) - 'OPEC oil producers said on Tuesday they were ready to keep output close to the limit to fill supply gaps in Nigeria and Iraq and steer prices away from a $70 danger zone that could hurt the world economy.'

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Tuesday's indicated a drop. Wednesday's indicate a rise.

The PoM System: +2.25, interpretation: favours a small rise.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Axis Shield
Balfour Beatty
ITV
Johnston Press
Provident Financial
Rathbone Brothers
Savills

Economic Data:
None.

Areas to watch: Oil [may drift lower].

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: late in the afternoon the DOW lifted the FTSE off the floor and some residual effect may still be left over come morning; several news items support a minor drop in oil prices; charts and PoM support a minor rise; company results are tame; FTSE will most likely move with daily news items.

Early gut feeling: a stagnent day, but favour a rise.

Will I bet? I'm not expecting much movement with FTSE so I'll take a rain check. Also worried about oil dropping which will be an anchor to the FTSE.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[Morris]

"The PoM system is currently running @ 83% [10 out of twelve predictions correct so far this year] "

Bear in mind that the % win rate of a system is much less important than the profit to loss ratio.

If the P:L ratio is 3:1, a 50% win strategy can produce a serious return. With a 1:1 rate, it will make nowt.

 

[downbytheriver7]

Umm gone long the FTSE @ 5804 and also long the NDX @ 1653. Tight stops.

 

[dc2000]

still waiting to to jump off ideally before the US open

well next hour would be ideal

 

[downbytheriver7]

still waiting to to jump off ideally before the US open

well next hour would be ideal

Closed my FTSE long. Looking at adding to my NDX long on a retracement to 1635 and also looking to buy a small DOW long from 10950 to 10926.

 

[SirFrancis]

Umm gone long the FTSE @ 5804 and also long the NDX @ 1653. Tight stops.

I've joined you down by the river, gone long at 5797, hoping for a bit of a recovery this afternoon.

:arrowu:

 

[davidwiz]

"The PoM system is currently running @ 83% [10 out of twelve predictions correct so far this year] "

Bear in mind that the % win rate of a system is much less important than the profit to loss ratio.

If the P:L ratio is 3:1, a 50% win strategy can produce a serious return. With a 1:1 rate, it will make nowt.

Not sure what exactly this PoM system is but, judging from its explanation by UKHERO, it seems that its useage is far from certain and still requires too much of one's own judgement. Although he claims that it is 83% accurate this year - this means nothing without the overall profit calculation including the losses!

That's why we are developing our system which automates as much possible. Its results can be seen here:

http://sc.dainty.biz/ta/welcome.aspx

I personally found it very useful in the last 3 months, is anyone else finding it useful? Feedback appreciated.

David

 

[downbytheriver7]

I've joined you down by the river, gone long at 5797, hoping for a bit of a recovery this afternoon.

:arrowu:

I actually thing the best risk/reward has got to be on the DOW (support 10926) and NDX (support 1635/1650). Currently long FTSE (again), DOW and NDX.

Wonder what the odds are now on the publicised 'FTSE 6000 this week bet', its been mentioned nearly every day in the paper.

 

[SirFrancis]

I actually thing the best risk/reward has got to be on the DOW (support 10926) and NDX (support 1635/1650). Currently long FTSE (again), DOW and NDX.

I'm taking a bit of time to get into the US markets before dipping my toe in. Never really considered NDX, but will have a look. Thanks

 

[downbytheriver7]

I'm taking a bit of time to get into the US markets before dipping my toe in. Never really considered NDX, but will have a look. Thanks

I am closing half my long positions here into this bounce - prudence.

 

[ukhero]

"The PoM system is currently running @ 83% [10 out of twelve predictions correct so far this year] "

Bear in mind that the % win rate of a system is much less important than the profit to loss ratio.

If the P:L ratio is 3:1, a 50% win strategy can produce a serious return. With a 1:1 rate, it will make nowt.

Totally agree with you.

The PoM system is a tool and nothing more. I will stress, it only takes 'known factors' into account and is therefore susceptible to adverse news, company and economic results to name but a few. But a high factor [in either direction] cushions the unknown probabilities that come to light on the day, and as such, I look for a factor of at least 4.

Interesting, tomorrow has a factor of +4.25 [a rise], but as we are all aware, what will the BOE's rate decision be? Will the miners drop further? Even adverse in both cases, and with all other matters being even, according to the system, the market will either rise or finish close to where it opened.

Lets see.


UK

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Wednesday 8th March 2006

Wednesday's results:
Close: 5812, down 44pts [0.76%].
Range: 5790 - 5857.

Last 5 TD: down 31pts [0.53%].
On the month: up 21pts [0.38%].

I fancied the market rising today, not by much, and data was thin, so in all not enough for me to bet, phew!!!

Wednesday's DOW:
11.005, up 25pts [0.23%].

Last 5 TD: down 47pts [0.43%].
On the month: up 12pts [0.12%].

Wednesday's S&P 500
1278.47, up 2.59pts [0.2%]

News items of note:
VIENNA (Reuters) - 'OPEC said on Wednesday it will keep oil output close to the limit to bring prices within consumers' comfort zone and fill supply gaps, but a threat by Iran to review its oil exports cast a shadow.'

LONDON (ShareCast) - 'There will be no new additions to the FTSE 100 (news) index following the latest quarterly review, according to FTSE, the first time this has happened in 10 years.

Using Tuesday's closing prices, the calculations were confirmed after today's close.

FTSE 250 constituents looking to be admitted to the blue chip index would have to rank in the top 90 companies to qualify for automatic inclusion, while top 100 firms that slip to 111th or worse fall into the mid cap index.

The second liners will be welcoming some new additions though, with coal-fired power station owner Drax , investment company Dexion Absolute (LSE: DABE.L) and oil explorer JKX Oil & Gas (LSE: JKX.L) gaining promotion to the FTSE 250.

Photo-Me , SkyePharma (LSE: SKP.L) and Whatman (LSE: WHM.L) will be relegated to the FTSE SmallCap index.

The changes are due to come into effect at the close of business on 17 March.' - So no fresh blood then. Shame.


Charts, and nothing but the charts: Wednesday's indicated a rise! Thursday's are debatable.

The PoM System: +4.25, interpretation: favours a rise, but recommends caution.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Acambis
BAA
Catlin
Cobham
Royal and Sun Alliance

Economic Data:
09:30 UK Industrial Production for Jan
09:30 UK Trade in Goods & Services for Jan
12:00 UK Bank of England Rate Announcement [the big one, and the one everyone's been waiting for]

Areas to watch: Oil [may drift even lower]; miners, metal commodity prices have dropped dramatically of late and the question is 'are we at the bottom yet!' ...flip a coin!

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE shuffled dramatically lower prior to the rates decision tomorrow, in effect, a disagreeable result has already been factored in; the DOW and S&P shuffled a touch higher but failed to lift the FTSE; charts are unclear, PoM result is encouraging but only takes known factors into account; company results are tame; economic data and miners are the ones to watch.

Early gut feeling: neutral.

Will I bet? If I was a dedicated gambler I'd go with a rise. As it is, I'll hold back until after the rates desicion and all being well, go Long for the rest of the day and friday.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

Not sure what exactly this PoM system is but, judging from its explanation by UKHERO, it seems that its useage is far from certain and still requires too much of one's own judgement. Although he claims that it is 83% accurate this year - this means nothing without the overall profit calculation including the losses!

That's why we are developing our system which automates as much possible. Its results can be seen here:

http://sc.dainty.biz/ta/welcome.aspx

I personally found it very useful in the last 3 months, is anyone else finding it useful? Feedback appreciated.

David

All systems of prediction in there early stages of development come from someone's own judgement, whether a mathematical formula, a system, a charting analysis or a computer programme. But at the end of the day, it all boils down to 'how well can they predict the market/share.'

Here are the results, YTD, of the PoM system where the factor is at least a 4, plus or minus:

9th Mar, PoM +4.25, result?
7th Mar, PoM -7, FTSE down 44pts
1st Mar, PoM + 6.5, FTSE up 52pts

=15th Feb, PoM +4.25, FTSE down 0.8pts=
14th Feb, PoM -4.75, FTSE down 1.2pts
13th Feb, PoM +6, FTSE up 29pts
10th Feb, PoM -5.25, FTSE down 44pts
9th Feb, PoM +6, FTSE up 83pts
1st Feb, PoM +4.5 FTSE up 41pts

31st Jan, PoM -4.25, FTSE down 19pts
30th Jan, PoM -7, FTSE down 9pts
=26th Jan, PoM -5, FTSE up 18pts=
25th Jan, PoM +6, FTSE up 70pts

As we can see [in =.......=] we have only two incorrect calls, 15th Feb and 26th Jan, totalling a loss of 18.8pts. Use a calculator to add up the gainssss!

The PoM system is not infallible, it is a tool. But used sensibly, and betting with prudence, so far, return will exceed loss quite exceptionally.

Of course you could bet with a factor of less then 4, which overall is currently running at 69% which is neither good nor bad, but the system advises against it. Such is the system.

It also advises on when not to bet even if the result happens to be a factor of 4, such as tomorrow [the first factor 4 this year to do so], so tomorrow is a no bet. Sensible, isn't it! But I will use my individual astuteness tomorrow in regards to the market to decide whether to go Long at the appropriate time. As we all know, tools are to be used, entry and exit is the key and not solely up or down.

It' is a tool. It is a tool. So good I mention it twice.

It's done well of late, but even I am not overly confident. It loves an up and down market, and I wonder how well it will perform in a strong rising /strong falling market, although there are factors for this they have yet to be tested. I will continue to follow its results and post them within this forum, after which, I'll either continue or discard.

Yours

UK

 

[SirFrancis]

Morning All

I appreciate your work on the PoM system UK, for me it's essential daily reading but it is only one source of data that I use.

Thanks

 

[aspex]

ukhero,
I will use PoM as a supplement to another tool that I have just started to process.
It is too early to make anything known but for the last 3 days it has been a one way plus for both long and short indications.
I acknowledge that the market for this week has been erratic but things look good.
I would be more than happy to make an average £150 for every bet for 3 days out of every 5 free of tax. (based on £15 a point)

 

[dooby12]

hi all. how can the rate decision affect the way the market moves? thanks.

 

[downbytheriver7]

I actually thing the best risk/reward has got to be on the DOW (support 10926) and NDX (support 1635/1650). Currently long FTSE (again), DOW and NDX.

Wonder what the odds are now on the publicised 'FTSE 6000 this week bet', its been mentioned nearly every day in the paper.

Well that worked out fine - closing all my longs here and awaiting the next sign!

 

[ukhero]

The FTSE, Friday 10th March 2006

Thursday's results:
Close: 5855, up 43pts [0.74%].
Range: 5812 - 5857.

With a giant leap from its early morning bed it spent the rest of the day half asleep. Such was the FTSE today. The Bulls and Bears are playing musical chairs at the moment with neither one strong enough or bold enough to go the whole nine yards and drag the FTSE kicking and screaming one way or another. Until we hit 5780 or 5920 its going to swing back and forth for another week.

Last 5 TD: up 22pts [0.40%].
On the month: up 64pts [1.12%].

Thursday's DOW:
10.972, down 33pts [0.30%].

Last 5 TD: down 53pts [0.48%].
On the month: down 21pts [0.18%].

Wednesday's S&P 500
1278.47, finished at evens.

News items of note:
None at time of writing.

Charts, and nothing but the charts: Thursday's were debatable. Friday's anticipate a rise.

The PoM System: -0.25, interpretation: a weak possibility of a fall.

[The PoM system is a mathematical formula that determines the markets direction. A plus or minus indicates the likelihood and strength of the market going up or down.]

Companies reporting:
Amlin
Centaur Holdings

Economic Data:
None.

Areas to watch: Miners. Commodity metels are bouching back which should lift this segment.

The FTSE tomorrow based on present news and data: the FTSE is set to open down early morning as the late fall with the American markets has yet to take effect; no major company results and no economic news; charts anticipate a rise but conflicts with the PoM result which predicts a weak possibility of a fall.

Early gut feeling: a rise by end of play.

Will I bet? I like Fridays. Historically, 2005 had 31 up and 15 down; this year 6 up 2 down. Thats good odds for a rise come tomorrow. I'll wait until the market settles and look for a bounce.

If you are betting: make your own decision, watch the markets open and do read the news for clues as to which way the FTSE may go.

Yours

UK

 

[ukhero]

ukhero,
I will use PoM as a supplement to another tool that I have just started to process.
It is too early to make anything known but for the last 3 days it has been a one way plus for both long and short indications.
I acknowledge that the market for this week has been erratic but things look good.
I would be more than happy to make an average £150 for every bet for 3 days out of every 5 free of tax. (based on £15 a point)

The PoM system is a tool, use it as a tool.

£15 per point! Wanna swap bank accounts?

Yours

UK

 

[aspex]

The PoM system is a tool, use it as a tool.

£15 per point! Wanna swap bank accounts?

Yours

UK

£15 is my upper limit but the start is just the £3.00 minimum that CityIndex allow on FT100 CFDs.
The aim would be to have up to 50% days active including run-ons into second or third days.
Success/failure rate of 3:1 (maybe too high?) and clear average 20 points long or short.
The risk is not too high, I believe but carrying cost is about £900 on a £3.00/point contract .
Carrying a tight stop of say 12 points limits losses to £36 per failure.
I do have the benefit of living outside the CGT capture of the British tax system, so CFDs are better for me than SB.

All of this is subject to successful pre-testing and since I am on holiday for a period this month, I will not start until at least mid-April. Previous tests with the NDX were not satisfactory because of greater volatility and a higher margin requirement.