The DOW this week 20/05 -25/05

[ChartMan]

The DOW this week 20/05 -24/05

Well, the breakout ocurred, but not in the expected direction.The failed 3/4 pk PD in the first hour got me thinking along the lines of TA fails in a downrend...Is this the top? 10 Min Phase is moving in a down channel and there is a tripple top at 350 ish. Most of the day floundered around the 100 MA and just went no-where, except at the close where there was a small rally, but nothing to draw me back to feeling bull....Nice to see some people did well today in difficult conditions.
Perhaps we have been trading above the 3 channels, in much the same way as the price moves outside the upper bollinger bands
before moving down...I've redrawn 4 new channel lines... This would show support at 190 ish.
100 MA: 10,258: Support: 10,206; 10,150;10,100. Resistance: 10,232;10,252;10,268;10,300.

 

[ChartMan]

Looks like spot on yesterday. The three channels are nicely formed. Support at 190 ish was there- although minimal. That privided support for a short while, then turned to resistance and down we went, to 10,080 with a small rally into the close.Phase has moved to the bottom of the channel and there are 3 bottoms on CCI. My feeling is there is more to go, but it may come later rather than sooner.The rounded top just looks like there is more to go. Not a sound basis to make a judgement.....Today there were more instances of TA failure, adding belief to the downtrend.
Fib retracement from the last major low shows 68% at 10,093 and from the low at 9811, the 50% retracement is 10,080. Maybe we get a bounce here.
100 MA:10,209. Support:10,080;10,032;10k;9932. Resistance:10,132;10,164;10,200;10,232.

 

[ChartMan]

We got the bounce, eventually. As the day went on, I was more convinced we would bounce as CCI failed to go lower, eventually providing positive divergence, making a nice breakout rally into the close, to finish above the 100 MA .More of the same tomorrow...
100 MA : 10,148. Support:10,145;10,132;10,100;10,064. Resistance: 10,164;10,200;10,232;10,264.

 

[ChartMan]

More of the same it was. CCI has continued to form a solid up trend and maintain the channel breakout.My best guess is that a re-test of 340 is easily within reach. The day didn't start too well with a drop that could have ended the rally, but found solid support at the new uptrend. Here a " gentle" bull triangle formed, in conjunction with an RS switch, leading to a 100 point rally and a close at HOD. Second slope change on the price so plenty of room for movement and a nice steady rise on CCI could lead to sustained upside. 10,225 is 23% retrace from the top , so critical value to break.
100 MA :10,141. Support: 10,180;10,150;10,132;10,100, Resistance: 10,200, 10,264;10,300;10,340.

 

[ChartMan]

The critical level at 225 dodnt even get a sniff and the whole day was spent drifting down to the 50% fib point at around 087, with a small rally into the close to finish 10 off LOD at 104.If the uptrend support/50% fib is lost on Tuesday, then we're off to 10K/62% at 10,024.There is also a downtrend resistance line that switched to support today that may well come into force.....
100 MA: 10,137. Support: 10,100;10,087;10,024. Resistance: 10,132;10,150;10,180;10,225.