The Affect of the President....

[Kingwizz]

With Obama promising America that they will be foreign oil free within 10 years (& him seeming an honest bloke) & also being the 1/2 favourite for being the next president (or in terms of true value I would say he has around a 60% chance of winning). Is it time to speculate on the price of oil in the assumption that the price will fall through the floor & send Dubai back into the stone age?

I hope I haven't missed the band wagon here & this factor of-course may already be priced into the market, still in any case I think I'm going to go ahead & sell (Well I already have). On top of the fact that the completion of these massive projects in Dubai are still completely reliant on oil, & if Obama manages to avoid assasination then the time for all things emirates has come to an end.

I know that this must be completely obvious to most traders & in-fact I have already taken my position. Still would be an interesting to see what others think of the electorial run on the markets.........

 

[0007]

With Obama promising America that they will be foreign oil free within 10 years (& him seeming an honest bloke) & also being the 1/2 favourite for being the next president (or in terms of true value I would say he has around a 60% chance of winning). Is it time to speculate on the price of oil in the assumption that the price will fall through the floor & send Dubai back into the stone age?

I hope I haven't missed the band wagon here & this factor of-course may already be priced into the market, still in any case I think I'm going to go ahead & sell (Well I already have). On top of the fact that the completion of these massive projects in Dubai are still completely reliant on oil, & if Obama manages to avoid assasination then the time for all things emirates has come to an end.

I know that this must be completely obvious to most traders & in-fact I have already taken my position. Still would be an interesting to see what others think of the electorial run on the markets.........

This is the quote from Obama's website Barack Obama | New Energy for America


# Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump
# Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.
# Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined.
# Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon -- on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America.
# Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
# Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.

Doesn't actually say how though. And he's a politician. Maybe I'm just cynical.

 

[Kingwizz]

Good point about him being a politician.

This I think is one of the reasons that the market has not fully priced in these changes that Obama will bring in. But with foreign oil from the middle east & Russia so vulnerable to price increases & with america do dependent there hasn't been a scrap of value there for decades due to the risks associated with it. So with a massive dependency withdrawal from Obama the market will just be floored.

Now after Bush, it is obviously hard for anyone in america to trust a politician. But I took my position for two reasons.

A) I think he is value to be elected (So he is more likely to be elected than his price indicates)
B) I do not mean this is in a rascist way at all; my feeling is that he feels he has a duty to represent Black America. With him being the first black president, he will surely want to prove to any skeptics that skin colour makes absolutely no difference

 

[0007]

Good point about him being a politician.

This I think is one of the reasons that the market has not fully priced in these changes that Obama will bring in. But with foreign oil from the middle east & Russia so vulnerable to price increases & with america do dependent there hasn't been a scrap of value there for decades due to the risks associated with it. So with a massive dependency withdrawal from Obama the market will just be floored.

Now after Bush, it is obviously hard for anyone in america to trust a politician. But I took my position for two reasons.

A) I think he is value to be elected (So he is more likely to be elected than his price indicates)
B) I do not mean this is in a rascist way at all; my feeling is that he feels he has a duty to represent Black America. With him being the first black president, he will surely want to prove to any skeptics that skin colour makes absolutely no difference

There are so many variables above that i think it's difficult for anyone or the market to take a considered view (of even just those factors) at this stage. Oil will always have huge political influence until the next leap in technology occurs that displaces it. But the oil states will stilll have their money / investments so the political scene will be highly volatile - whenever that occurs: next decade? next millenium?

On political personality: Obama I'm sure is a fine candidate with high ideals and as far as i'm concerned colour doesn't come into it though no doubt he will have the support of many black people. Blair was the same - new, young, fresh and ready to clean up politics. But it ain't that easy. I think you need someone who has a vision and the determination to put it into effect, and comes on the scene at the right time - all the planets need to be in conjunction. Eg Thatcher - but she certainly didn't engender universal support

As for the price of oil falling through the floor - who knows? It's not just fundamentals - there are too many vested interests who no doubt can & will manipulate the market. I think I'd watch & wait - but I'm not an oil trader / economist, so you probably wouldn't want to attach too much weight to my opinion!

 

[Kingwizz]

Remeber though Bush wasn't voted in

"Too Many Vested Interests" - Yes, that's probably the main reason that the bookmakers don't offer an assasination market

 

[Lee Shepherd]

With Obama promising America that they will be foreign oil free within 10 years (& him seeming an honest bloke) & also being the 1/2 favourite for being the next president (or in terms of true value I would say he has around a 60% chance of winning). Is it time to speculate on the price of oil in the assumption that the price will fall through the floor & send Dubai back into the stone age?

I hope I haven't missed the band wagon here & this factor of-course may already be priced into the market, still in any case I think I'm going to go ahead & sell (Well I already have). On top of the fact that the completion of these massive projects in Dubai are still completely reliant on oil, & if Obama manages to avoid assasination then the time for all things emirates has come to an end.

I know that this must be completely obvious to most traders & in-fact I have already taken my position. Still would be an interesting to see what others think of the electorial run on the markets.........

Nice one,

There is some very possible truth here in what you say. The U.S have been going on about oil dependancy for decades so its not like everyone hasn't been warned.

You could be on to something here.

 

[nghislainf]

Hello everyone!
What upsets me the most is mainly the 'skin color factor' everytime we talk about Obama!

Maybe nobody noticed it, but Obama if elected is not gonna favour in anyway the black community for many reasons!
I mainly supported Hillary Clinton because of the most evident reason amongst all:
"Obama would rather be tougher on african americans in all his policies than to risk to be accused of favourism to his community"...It has always happen where a minority is to rule and it is no different...
Apart from that I think Obama is the best America could ever have dreamed of!!!
Have you had a chance to watch interviews held by McCain?If you thought 'Bush' was the worst president of this century, wait and see! 'McCain + Palin' are more likely to transform America into the third world!!!!
G

 

[wildkactus]

If anyone will turn America third world it will be the Obama / Dem's with there protectionist views.

Even though McCain would not be my choice for president I Can not see him been any worst then the present.

Obama will be held to his race, if he wins office he will have every African-American looking for a hand out or favour from their president, and They possibly deserve some but this will put all his change ideas on the back burner.

Out of this bunch of candidates there was really only one that would have made sense and she is no longer in the race.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

If anyone will turn America third world it will be the Obama / Dem's with there protectionist views.

Even though McCain would not be my choice for president I Can not see him been any worst then the present.

Obama will be held to his race, if he wins office he will have every African-American looking for a hand out or favour from their president, and They possibly deserve some but this will put all his change ideas on the back burner.

Out of this bunch of candidates there was really only one that would have made sense and she is no longer in the race.

Dude,

They're all the same people, just different faces. Who do you think really elects the presidents and premiers of the world, it's not us. I didn't ask for several guys to run the country I live in but that's all I could vote for (other than the raving looney party).

Until we have decent law abiding citizens standing up and saying...'I'll give it a go and actually listen to the very people that elected me to do the job they ask of', we will end up with the same people with the same adgenda's.

This is the world over, democratic or not.

 

[JTrader]

The President is nothing but a soulless whore, the puppet frontman, doing the dirty work for the New World Order bankers that really run things.

 

[Lee Shepherd]

JTrader,

I'm here with ya.

 

[nghislainf]

Hello everyone,
I'm affraid I don't agree with both of ya Jtrader+Shepherd!
Of course LOBBIES DO EXIST!!!!! The JEWS, the bankers, Wall street, 7 big OIL companies and so forth....
Nevertheless, the commander in chief DOES MAKE THE DIFFERENCE....

 

[nghislainf]

The puppets are third world president that then find their selves accused of crime against humanity once the refuse to continue serving the interests of the BIGS!!!!

 

[nghislainf]

By the way JTrader, I like the thought at the end of your comments...!!!!

 

[ron44]

Obama is not a black African American
He is Arab Muslim. and they will be the ones he will support.
how can you support someone that won't even salute the American Flag?????
and your crazy if you support him!!!
Hell i'd support Jessie Jackson before i would support him!!!!!
and we know that would be a big mistake.
but Colin Powell, maybe.

 

[JTrader]

Obama is not a black African American
He is Arab Muslim. and they will be the ones he will support.
how can you support someone that won't even salute the American Flag?????
and your crazy if you support him!!!
Hell i'd support Jessie Jackson before i would support him!!!!!
and we know that would be a big mistake.
but Colin Powell, maybe.

Obama, McCain, potatos, potatoes, whats the difference???

They're both bought and paid for by the same private banks and corporations that own you and your country.

They are no different, they're opposite sides of the same coin, two departments within the same company bidding for the same no bid contract. The idea that they are different, and will offer any beneficial change is an illusion.

The only real chance for change you have is Ron Paul.

 

[Kingwizz]

This bet has made me an absolute bomb shell & Obama hasn't even been elected yet! Only Joshin' fair play that my reasoning above probably isn't the reason for the price crumble. I think I am going to take my profits on crude & leave my bet rolling on Obama which I was going to hedge earlier. When I started this thread he was 1/2. Now he's 1/10 - a bit short maybe but I'll see all other backers in the winners enclosure! (Which will be as far away from the States as physically possible!).