Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

Markets Stay Cautious Amid Geopolitical Uncertainties (08.14.2026)​

Global markets remained caught between cooling US inflation and persistent Middle East risks. Softer US CPI and core PPI data reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike to around 35%, supporting gold despite recent profit-taking and helping risk assets.

In Europe, however, inflation expectations remained elevated at 2.4%, above the ECB's 2% target, after July CPI reached 2.9%. Combined with 0.4% Q2 GDP growth, this kept expectations for a 25-basis-point ECB hike in September intact and supported the euro near $1.153.

Geopolitics remained centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where stalled US-Iran negotiations continued to threaten energy supplies and inflation. Brent held near $87, with shipping continuing despite security risks.

Elevated energy and import costs also weighed on the Japanese yen, which traded near 159.4 per dollar. Meanwhile, softer US inflation helped the US 100 Tech Index advance, while Bitcoin remained under pressure near $63,280. The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74, driven mainly by a weaker PBOC fixing rather than geopolitical developments.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Holds Near $1.153​

The euro stabilized around $1.153 on Friday as markets evaluated Middle East geopolitical shifts, uncertain US-Iran agreement signals, and energy-driven inflation pressures. Eurozone inflation expectations held near 2.4%, surpassing the ECB's 2% target after July figures reached 2.9%.

However, underlying economic strength improved the broader outlook, supported by second-quarter GDP expansion of 0.4%. Given persistent price pressures and resilient economic activity, investors maintain expectations for a 25-basis-point European Central Bank rate increase in September.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1570 while the support starts from 1.1500.

Gold Falls Below $4,350​

Gold slipped below $4,350 per ounce on Friday, continuing its downward slide as investors locked in profits while evaluating Federal Reserve policy signals and Middle East geopolitics. Tame US producer price data supported indications of moderate inflation following a muted CPI report, dropping September rate hike probabilities to roughly 35%.

However, lingering uncertainty surrounding delayed efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz maintained market caution regarding potential energy price spikes and renewed geopolitical friction.

First resistance is seen at $4385, with initial support near $4280.

Yen Heads for Weekly Loss​

The Japanese yen hovered near 159.4 per dollar on Friday, heading toward a 1% weekly decline as the absence of additional official intervention emboldened short positions. The currency has now erased roughly half its recent gains following late July's record joint market intervention by Tokyo and Washington.

Wide interest rate differentials, fiscal uncertainties, and elevated energy and import costs continue to exert persistent pressure on the yen.

First resistance is seen at 160.00, with initial support near 158.80.

Sterling Slips Below $1.35​

The British pound pulled back below $1.35 as investors weighed solid UK economic indicators against ongoing Middle East geopolitical friction. Second-quarter UK GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, meeting forecasts, backed by a stronger 0.3% rise in June.

However, household consumption growth moderated to 0.2%, signaling persistent consumer financial pressure despite overall economic resilience.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3440.

Silver Drops Below $64​

Silver slid below $64 per ounce on Friday, continuing previous losses as investors secured profits and reevaluated Federal Reserve monetary policy. Cooler US core producer price data for July further confirmed moderating inflation following earlier soft CPI figures.

Financial markets reduced expectations for a 25-basis-point September rate hike to approximately 35%, down from 55% the previous week.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $65.00, while support is located around $63.05.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude stabilized around $87 per barrel on Friday following earlier losses, as traders carefully tracked diplomatic discussions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Although negotiations remain stalled, crude shipments continue traversing the Persian Gulf, though several tankers have disabled transponders to navigate lingering maritime security hazards across the region.

Resistance is seen at 88.20, while the nearest support stands at 85.90.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded near 29,985 on Friday, August 14, climbing 342 points or 1.15% from the prior session. The index advanced 1.64% over the past month and remains up 26.45% year-over-year. Trading Economics projects the index will ease to 29,092 by quarter-end and reach 27,281 within twelve months.

Resistance stands at 30,350, while the nearest support is located at 29,720.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan eased toward 6.74 per dollar on Thursday, surrendering earlier gains after a softer PBOC midpoint fixing weighed on sentiment. The central bank set the fixing rate at 6.7888 per dollar, falling 418 pips short of market forecasts.

While seasonal tailwinds heading into September may offer mild support, further currency strength rests heavily on future PBOC guidance.

Resistance stands at 6.7550 while the nearest support is located at 6.7400.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)​

Bitcoin traded near $63,280 on Friday, August 14, slipping 126 points or 0.20% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency registered a 2.24% drop over the past four weeks and remains down 46.11% over the last year. Trading Economics projects Bitcoin will reach $66,236 by quarter-end and $73,276 within twelve months.

First resistance is seen at 63,800, with initial support near 62.500.

 

[Z Forex]

Weak U.S. Data Supports Metals and Currencies (08.17.2026)​

The US 10-year yield held near 4.69% after rising about 5bps Friday. Michigan one-year inflation expectations climbed above 4% for a fifth month, while the US-Iran ceasefire expires today with Hormuz talks still stalled. Despite softer inflation, consumer sentiment, and retail sales data, the probability of a September Fed hold has risen to 67% from below 50% a month ago.

The Dollar Index fell for a third session to around 99.5 as softer US data reduced Fed hike expectations. The probability of a September hold now stands near 67%, compared with below 50% a month ago. Focus turns to the FOMC minutes, Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and Empire State and NAHB data, with the dollar weakest against the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and pound.

US stock futures edged higher as attention shifted to earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart. Wednesday’s Fed minutes are also in focus after softer inflation reduced September hike expectations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained for three straight weeks, helped by strong earnings despite Middle East and AI concerns.

Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to 2.93%, its highest since 1996, as expectations for a BOJ hike grew. Q2 GDP expanded 1.1% annualized, below the 2% forecast, as weak domestic demand offset strong exports. The BOJ recently raised its FY2026 growth forecast to 0.6%, while yen weakness and inflation support calls for tighter policy.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Nears 1.1600​

The euro strengthened toward 1.1570, approaching resistance at 1.1600 as US dollar momentum wanes. Weak July US retail sales alongside muted inflation figures reduced September Fed rate hike odds to nearly 33%. Eurozone inflation at 2.9% supports continued ECB tightening expectations, though Middle East geopolitical tensions and rising European gas prices pose ongoing risks.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1590 while the support starts from 1.1520.

Gold Breaks Above $4,400​

Gold advanced beyond $4,400 per ounce on Monday, building on momentum as muted US inflation, softening retail sales, and weakening consumer confidence lowered September Federal Reserve rate hike odds to nearly 33%. While traders await the upcoming FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address, persistent geopolitical friction from fresh Middle East strikes and new Iranian sanctions supported bullion's safe-haven appeal.

First resistance is seen at $4420, with initial support near $4360.

Yen Recovers to 159​

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 159 per dollar on Monday, regaining ground lost last week as a softening US dollar reflected weaker economic data. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady in September rose to roughly 67%. The yen gained despite Japan's second-quarter annualized GDP growth slowing to 1.1% due to sluggish domestic consumption, while traders remained vigilant for intervention and prospective Bank of Japan rate increases.

First resistance is seen at 160.00, with initial support near 158.60.

Sterling Consolidates Near 1.35​

GBP/USD trades near 1.35, maintaining a steady consolidation pattern. Technical levels show firm support at 1.3400 and strong resistance at 1.3600 as the market awaits a clear breakout catalyst. With cautious trading volumes preceding critical employment and inflation reports, traders continue balancing Federal Reserve rate expectations against Bank of England monetary policy, while broader market risk sentiment drives short-term direction.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3510.

Silver Climbs Near $66​

Silver climbed toward $66 per ounce on Monday, extending recent gains as soft US economic reports, including muted inflation, declining retail sales, and weakening consumer sentiment, reduced September Fed rate hike probabilities to roughly one-in-three. While investors await the FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole address for monetary policy guidance, geopolitical friction in the Middle East sustained safe-haven demand, even as ongoing regional oil shipments helped moderate broader energy inflation concerns.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $66.20, while support is located around $64.40.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude held above $88/barrel, extending last week's gains as Middle East tensions stayed elevated after Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed 11 people, including a senior Hezbollah commander.

Trump is preparing fresh sanctions to pressure Iran as the interim US-Iran ceasefire nears expiry with Hormuz talks deadlocked, though covert crude flows through the strait capped price gains, while Iran and Oman appeared to near a separate arrangement on the waterway without US involvement.

Resistance is seen at 89.20, while the nearest support stands at 86.90.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 closed under mild pressure at 30,046.14, down 0.13%, as technical profit-taking offset optimism around a cooling macro backdrop.

The tech-heavy index saw distribution near its all-time high of 30,762.20, with soft US inflation data bolstering Fed rate cut expectations, even as megacap tech adjusted to normalized growth and stabilizing Treasury yields kept a lid on breakout moves.

Resistance stands at 30,450, while the nearest support is located at 29,720.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded under moderate pressure near $62,777, showing mild intraday stabilization above local support at $62,500.

The cryptocurrency remained locked in a range-bound corrective cycle since pulling back from early-year highs near $93,000, weighed down by muted institutional inflows, cautious ETF demand, and thin weekend liquidity, even as soft US inflation data supported broader risk assets.

First resistance is seen at 63,800, with initial support near 62.500.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The USD/CNH pair traded tight near 6.7412, holding a narrow range between 6.7401 and 6.7461 amid low volatility across Asian and early European sessions.

The offshore yuan saw modest monthly appreciation as steady PBoC fixings discouraged one-way depreciation bets, while muted US data kept the dollar subdued and mixed Chinese indicators balanced trade flows, leaving the pair range-bound near multi-month lows.

Resistance stands at 6.7550 while the nearest support is located at 6.7380.