Technical Outlook with Charts | zForex

[Z Forex]

The Yen Adds to BOJ Pressure (07.22.2026)​

US stock futures slipped ahead of earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, GE Vernova, Philip Morris, and Texas Instruments. Super Micro Computer jumped nearly 20% after strong results, while Pegasystems fell more than 13%. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq gained 1.29%, supported by strong chip export data and solid earnings from 3M and GM.

Japan's 10-year yield rose to around 2.74%, a one-week high, following higher US Treasury yields and rising oil prices. A weaker yen at a fresh 40-year low added to expectations of further BOJ tightening. Traders also looked ahead to a JPY 300 billion 40-year bond auction after June's trade balance returned to deficit.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.63% as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus. Trump played down the prospect of near-term talks with Iran, while disruptions in the Red Sea and attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline added to supply concerns. ADP data showed hiring slowed for a fourth straight month.

The US Dollar Index remained above 101, rising for a fourth straight session as higher Treasury yields continued to support the currency. Ongoing conflict involving Iran, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, and weaker ADP employment data kept expectations for a September Fed rate hike above 55%.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Waits on Frankfurt​

The euro held above $1.14 ahead of Thursday's ECB decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged after June's hike, although markets still price two more increases by year-end, starting as early as September.

Hopes for renewed US-Iran talks also remained in focus as oil prices continued to influence the inflation outlook.

The first resistance is at 1.1430, while support begins at 1.1380.

Gold’s Climb Continues​

Gold approached $4,200 as higher oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus. Trump dismissed the prospect of near-term talks with Iran and warned of further strikes, while disruptions in the Red Sea and attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline added to supply concerns.

Slower ADP hiring also left markets pricing over a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike.

First resistance is at $4,160, with initial support near $4,100.

No Relief for the Yen​

The yen weakened beyond 163 per dollar, its lowest level since October 1986, keeping markets on alert for possible intervention. Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher, weighing on Japan's import-dependent economy, while a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields widened rate gaps and encouraged carry trades.

Fiscal concerns over new spending plans and the BOJ's cautious policy approach added further pressure, as June's trade balance slipped back into deficit.

Initial resistance stands at 163.30, while the first support is at 162.80.

A New Cabinet, A New Direction​

Sterling slipped below $1.34, touching a weekly low as traders digested Andy Burnham's first cabinet appointments. His decision to name John Healey as Chancellor lifted expectations for higher defence spending, although both emphasized fiscal discipline.

June public borrowing also came in below forecasts.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3430, with support around 1.3340.

Silver Still Dependent on Macro Data​

Silver climbed toward $60 as stronger oil prices kept inflation concerns in focus. Trump's comments on Iran, disruptions in the Red Sea, attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline, and softer ADP employment data all supported expectations of over a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $60.50, while support is located around $58.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent rose above $92, hitting nearly six-week highs as supply risks widened beyond the Middle East. Trump dismissed near-term Iran talks and warned of more strikes, while a Kuwaiti tanker was struck in Hormuz.

Traders also keep an eye on attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline terminal, a key export hub for Kazakh crude.

Resistance is seen at 93.40, while the nearest support stands at 90.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq-100 trades at 29,000, rebounding roughly 1.93% after defending major support, working to reverse its multi-week correction from June's peak.

Markets await crucial Q2 earnings from AI leaders and Tesla, while semiconductor pullbacks and Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment. Momentum stays neutral-to-bearish under a broader "double top" structure.

Resistance stands at 29,200, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

USD/CNH trades stable at 6.7730, holding a tightly controlled downward trajectory as the yuan shows resilience on steady PBoC intervention.

Cooling US inflation points toward an eventual Fed pause, though hawkish warnings cap dollar losses, while the DXY remains stuck in consolidation. Momentum stays neutral-to-bearish within a broader downtrend.

Resistance stands at 6.7750 while the nearest support is located at 6.7600.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin trades near $66,300, posting modest intraday gains as it exits a descending channel, supported above its 50-day moving average.

Institutional spot ETF inflows continue offsetting geopolitical headwinds, while bullish momentum (RSI near 60 and positive MACD) keeps short-term technicals in "Strong Buy" territory, with resistance near $67,200 and upside targeting $70,000.

First resistance is seen at 67,200, with initial support near 65,300.

 

[Z Forex]

Momentum Stocks Face a Sharp Reality Check​

The strongest momentum stocks have taken the biggest hit in the latest market sell-off. Shares that had led the market for months are now seeing the heaviest selling as investors rush to reduce exposure.

According to Societe Generale data, the top 50 momentum stocks have fallen by close to 30% since late June. The weakness has not been limited to one region. Similar selling has appeared across global equities, developed markets, and markets outside China.

The size of the decline makes more sense when looking at the rally that came before it. Some of the strongest names had gained between 80% and 140% in only three months. Many were linked to popular themes such as artificial intelligence, technology, defence, and high-growth sectors.

This is a common risk with crowded trades. When too many investors own the same stocks, even a small disappointment can trigger heavy selling. Profit-taking begins, stop-losses are activated, and the decline can quickly gain speed.

The main lesson is not that momentum investing has stopped working. It is that entry price and position size still matter. Stocks that rise too far and too fast can become vulnerable, even when the long-term story remains attractive.

 

[Z Forex]

Conflict Fuels Inflation Fears (07.23.2026)​

Global markets weakened as the Middle East conflict kept Brent crude above $95, its highest level in six weeks, on concerns over oil supplies.

Trump warned of strikes on Iranian infrastructure if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is targeted, after Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.

Higher energy prices strengthened expectations that inflation could remain persistent, with markets now pricing a 61% chance of a September Fed rate hike, while both the Fed and ECB are expected to leave rates unchanged at their upcoming meetings.

Risk assets also lost ground, with the US 100 Tech Index down 0.54% and Bitcoin falling 0.66%, as higher oil prices and interest rate expectations continued to weigh on sentiment.

Economic Calendar​

Oil Clouds the Euro Outlook​

The euro traded near $1.14, close to a one-year low, before Thursday's ECB decision as traders also tracked Middle East developments. After June's hike, the ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing incoming data and geopolitical risks. Even so, markets still price in around two more rate hikes this year, with September seen as the most likely timing.

Concerns that rising tensions could disrupt oil supplies have kept eurozone inflation risks high. Brent crude climbed to a recent high after Trump ruled out near-term talks with Iran, warned of further strikes, and pledged retaliation if Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis target Red Sea shipping.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1450 while the support starts from 1.1380.

Fed Week Casts Shadow Over Gold​

Gold slipped from a two-week high to around $4,120 per ounce as rising Middle East tensions drove oil to a six-week high. Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, while Trump warned of strikes on Iranian infrastructure if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is targeted.

The Fed is expected to hold rates next week, though markets still assign a 61% chance of a September hike. The ECB is also expected to leave rates unchanged while keeping September open.

First resistance is seen at $4160, with initial support near $4100.

Intervention Talk Falls Flat​

USDJPY traded around 163 per dollar after hitting a four-decade low of 163.24 earlier this week. Reports that the BOJ could tighten policy sooner lifted the probability of an October rate hike to 80%, from 70% a day earlier. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama repeated that authorities are prepared to intervene if necessary.

The yen still remains under pressure from the strong dollar, Japan's low interest rates, and uncertainty over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policy direction. Rising oil prices are also adding pressure to Japan's import-dependent economy.

Initial resistance stands at 163.30, while the first support is at 162.80.

Cooling CPI Weighs on the Pound​

Sterling remained below $1.34, its lowest level in more than a week, after UK inflation slowed more than expected, reducing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate hike this month. Annual inflation eased to 2.6% in June, below the 2.7% forecast, helped by lower transport and food prices.

Core inflation (2.6%) and services inflation (3.6%) both exceeded expectations. CBI economist Martin Sartorius warned inflation could pick up again, while Chancellor John Healey announced measures including lower VAT on electricity bills and a £2 cap on single bus fares across England from January. Middle East tensions also remained in focus after Trump warned of further strikes on Iran.

Resistance stands at 1.3430, while support is 1.3340.

Supply Issues Support Silver​

Silver traded around $59 per ounce, remaining below its nearly two-week high as rising Middle East tensions lifted oil prices. Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, while Trump warned of strikes on Iranian infrastructure if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is targeted.

Meanwhile, India's silver imports have slowed sharply after a new licensing regime disrupted shipments, lifting local premiums to multi-month highs.

Resistance stands at $60.50, while support is $58.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent rose above $92 per barrel, reaching a six-week high and extending gains for a fifth straight session. Trump's warning of strikes on Iranian infrastructure, threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, and a 12th consecutive day of US strikes on Iran all kept supply concerns in focus.

Resistance is seen at 93.40, while the nearest support stands at 90.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded near 28,749, down 0.54% on the day. The index has declined 1.61% over the past four weeks but remains 23.81% higher over the last year.

Trading Economics forecasts the index at 27,992 by quarter-end and 26,265 over the next year.

Resistance stands at 29,200, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened toward 6.77 per dollar as Hong Kong's offshore yuan deposits reached a record 1.13 trillion yuan and clearing volume rose to 53.2 trillion yuan in June.

Strong demand for yuan financing continued to support offshore lending and bond issuance, while attention shifted to this month's Politburo meeting for signals on China's second-half policy plans.

Resistance stands at 6.7750 while the nearest support is located at 6.7600.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near 65,668, down 0.66% on the day. The cryptocurrency has lost 7.66% over the past four weeks and 44.52% over the last year.

Trading Economics forecasts Bitcoin at 65,848 by the end of the quarter and 72,281 over the next 12 months.

First resistance is seen at 67,200, with initial support near 65,300.

 

[Z Forex]

ECB Keeps September Guessing (07.24.2026)​

Brent crude traded above $100 per barrel, its highest since May, after Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, continued US strikes on Iran, and fresh supply disruptions from Kazakhstan.

Higher oil prices strengthened inflation concerns, lifting the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 78%. Gold fell below $4,100, silver slipped under $59, the US 100 Tech Index lost 1.87%, and Bitcoin declined 1.47% as higher rate expectations weighed on sentiment.

The euro fell after the ECB kept rates unchanged, sterling weakened as markets priced further BOE tightening, and the yen dropped to a four-decade low despite rising BOJ hike expectations. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan outperformed, supported by record Hong Kong yuan deposits and the PBOC's strongest daily fixing since February 2023.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Awaits the Next Move​

The euro fell below $1.139 after the ECB left interest rates unchanged, as expected. Policymakers maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance, noting that softer inflation, slower wage growth, weaker activity, and lower inflation expectations have reduced the need for further tightening.

However, the recent oil rally driven by Middle East tensions has revived inflation concerns. Even so, markets continue to price in at least two ECB rate cuts by year-end, with September fully priced.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1450 while the support starts from 1.1360.

Oil Clouds Gold's Shine​

Gold slipped below $4,100 an ounce, retreating from two-week highs as higher oil prices strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep rates elevated for longer.

Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers, while a 12th straight night of US strikes on Iran raised concerns over prolonged disruptions to Gulf oil exports. Markets now see a 78% chance of a September Fed rate hike.

First resistance is seen at $4100, with initial support near $4050.

Yen Ignores Intervention Talk​

The yen weakened to around 163.3 per dollar, its lowest level in four decades, despite growing expectations of faster BOJ tightening and repeated intervention warnings.

Reports pointed to rising inflation risks in Japan, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that authorities stand ready to act if needed. A strong dollar, Japan's low interest rates, uncertainty over government policy, and rising oil prices continue to pressure the currency.

Initial resistance stands at 164.00, while the first support is at 163.30.

Pound Feels the Oil Pressure​

Sterling slipped to $1.336, its lowest level in ten days, as investors weighed new UK fiscal measures against persistent inflation risks. Finance Minister John Healey warned of rising business costs, while Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs, and live music venues from April. With oil near two-month highs, markets now price in almost two BOE rate hikes by year-end.

Resistance stands at 1.3340, while support is 1.3300.

Silver Retreats with Gold​

Silver eased below $59 an ounce after reaching a two-week high as rising oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and expectations for tighter Fed policy. Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers and continued US strikes on Iran added to fears of prolonged supply disruptions.

Markets currently assign a 78% probability to a September Fed rate hike.

Resistance stands at $58.50, while support is $57.20.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude surged more than 6% above $96 per barrel, extending gains for a fifth session to its highest level since May.

Prices rose after Trump warned Iran of "major military punishment" following Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Kazakhstan's suspension of exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal after drone attacks added to supply concerns. Brent has now gained more than 30% since the conflict began.

Resistance is seen at 96.50, while the nearest support stands at 94.80.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 28,472, down 1.87% on the session. The index has declined 2.56% over the past four weeks but remains 22.62% higher than a year ago.

Analyst projections point to 27,992 by quarter-end and 26,265 over the next 12 months.

Resistance stands at 28,850, while the nearest support is located at 28,570.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.77 per dollar as Hong Kong's growing yuan liquidity highlighted continued progress in China's currency internationalization. Offshore yuan deposits reached a record 1.13 trillion yuan in May, while June settlement volume climbed to 53.2 trillion yuan.

The PBOC also set its strongest daily fixing since February 2023, signaling greater tolerance for a firmer currency. Attention now turns to this month's Politburo meeting for guidance on China's economic priorities.

Resistance stands at 6.7750 while the nearest support is located at 6.7600.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $65,132, down 1.47% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has fallen 6.78% over the past four weeks and is down 44.98% over the last 12 months.

Analyst estimates place Bitcoin at $65,848 by quarter-end and $72,281 within a year.

The first resistance is 65,300, while initial support is 63,700.