Take 10 pips or hope for breakout?

the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
The initial question was rhetorical to demonstrate that it's not all about entries,...I have no such edge - it was a ficticious example as others clearly understood judging by the rep given to the post. Doh !

Pearls before swine

On a positive note, Im reliably informed the beacon is shining brighter day by day :LOL:
 
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cablemonster

0 0
this pic is for the hare.
 

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Thermal Ebb

Active member
100 15
split the trade into 2 (or even 3)......apply different Exit strategies to each and net the best of all worlds ...:smart:.

N
NVP beat me to it. That's precisely what you do. Back testing is largely irrelevant as it does not factor in the real-time psychological element. We're all experts in retrospect and would have done this and would have done that. In reality, faced with making decision in real-time, it's obviously a lot different.

By running your models in real-time with small stakes you get to fully test them and you get to feel how they feel as you try them all on. Keep meticulous records and don't depend upon your memory for which method is optimum. The ones which net you the most pips will stick in your mind, but they may not be the ones you need to be remembering.

The only further suggestion I'll make is to bias your trading to methods which require the fewest decision points from entry to exit. Each trade isn't just a decision for entry and one for exit. It's a decision at every print along the way. Decisions, even those where you end up doing nothing take energy and that can sap you as badly as loss of capital.

If you find that you've got two or more methods that seem to have a roughly equal performance profile then you're a lucky guy as you can choose which and when to run them. That's the fun part and that's what trading should always be. Sounds like you can get to b/e quickly so shouldn't be too much of a push for you to get comfortable with leaving the rest on and just have some fun with it. Good luck.
 
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barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
........... you can't see what I can see.............

Yes, I suppose it must be the rarefied atmosphere on that 0.5% cloud (I won't ask for a statement :)) that does it. Such a shame that, with that special vision not given to the rest of us, your contributions to the boards are 99.5% (there's that percentage cropping up again :LOL:) destructive with the odd "I know something you don't know" thrown in just to keep the pot boiling. All very helpful to many, I'm sure.
 
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cablemonster

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NVP beat me to it. That's precisely what you do. Back testing is largely irrelevant as it does not factor in the real-time psychological element. We're all experts in retrospect and would have done this and would have done that. In reality, faced with making decision in real-time, it's obviously a lot different.

By running your models in real-time with small stakes you get to fully test them and you get to feel how they feel as you try them all on. Keep meticulous records and don't depend upon your memory for which method is optimum. The ones which net you the most pips will stick in your mind, but they may not be the ones you need to be remembering.

The only further suggestion I'll make is to bias your trading to methods which require the fewest decision points from entry to exit. Each trade isn't just a decision for entry and one for exit. It's a decision at every print along the way. Decisions, even those where you end up doing nothing take energy and that can sap you as badly as loss of capital.

If you find that you've got two or more methods that seem to have a roughly equal performance profile then you're a lucky guy as you can choose which and when to run them. That's the fun part and that's what trading should always be. Sounds like you can get to b/e quickly so shouldn't be too much of a push for you to get comfortable with leaving the rest on and just have some fun with it. Good luck.

a thoroughly sensible post sir.:D
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
Lol - No It's a negative expectancy because it's a negative expectancy. Period. (7.5 x 10pips/trade = +75) less (2.5 x -40pips/trade = -100) = -25 divided by total trades [= 10] = expectancy of -2.5pips/trade.

Thanks for the concern over my optical health - but I can see things very clearly for what they are, - all things, as I am sure many others can !

Two ways to make an 'edge' with a negative expectancy profitable ?

1. Martingale/dutching - ie increase the next trade stake size after each loser - stop at a winner.

and/or

2. Average the existing trade on the same or correlated (directly or inversely correlated) instrument hoping for a 'mean reversion' By the way how speaking of averaging How are your cable longs getting on a la Cablemonster's thread - ie your methodology to keep buying in a clear downtrend ?



It's only negative because you can't see what I can see. I think you are cross eyed from staring too much at all the lines in your chart to see things clearly, to see there are other possibilities.
 

jacknapier

Active member
157 2
To the OP, you made the above statement. What does this mean?

Well... I suppose it's subjective since it seems to work a lot better than what I was doing before. ie: gambling... It seems to work, since the only real draw down I've had since I started doing it are when I don't follow my rules. You know, gamble type trades or impulsive trades.

I'll have to read the rest of the posts tonight as I'm busy atm.
 
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cablemonster

0 0
By the way how speaking of averaging How are your cable longs getting on a la Cablemonster's thread - ie your methodology to keep buying in a clear downtrend ?[/I]

lol I think he got his ar5e handed to him. I did try to tell him the bottom of the monthly range was on balance of probabilities the most likely outcome. I think he was busy 'manipulating the manipulators'. :LOL:
 
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the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
Yes, I suppose it must be the rarefied atmosphere on that 0.5% cloud (I won't ask for a statement :)) that does it. Such a shame that, with that special vision not given to the rest of us, your contributions to the boards are 99.5% (there's that percentage cropping up again :LOL:) destructive with the odd "I know something you don't know" thrown in just to keep the pot boiling. All very helpful to many, I'm sure.

That's a bit unfair. As a fellow poster of absolute drivel (and worse, according to your content management team) I have to show a bit of solidarity with Joe. We provide a useful function, allowing others to highlight the error of our ways.

Some of the brightest shining contributions recently at the beacon have been made in direct response to Joes posts.

You might well argue that if it wasn't Joe posting garbage someone else (such as my good self) would. You may be right, but not all members are as resilient in the face of criticism and ridicule as Joe and I.

I presume your criticism of Joe was a personal opinion rather than an official t2w perspective on his contribution ?
 

wackypete2

Legendary member
10,229 2,055
lol I think he got his ar5e handed to him. I did try to tell him the bottom of the monthly range was on balance of probabilities the most likely outcome. I think he was busy 'manipulating the manipulators'. :LOL:



Peter
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
.............I presume your criticism of Joe was a personal opinion rather than an official t2w perspective on his contribution ?.............

Indeedy :LOL:

And as for you, you naughty lulz merchant :), there's been many a shining diamond amidst the lulz even if it may have pained you to make such insightful contributions.
 

Shakone

Senior member
2,458 665
Well... I suppose it's subjective since it seems to work a lot better than what I was doing before. ie: gambling... It seems to work, since the only real draw down I've had since I started doing it are when I don't follow my rules. You know, gamble type trades or impulsive trades.

I'll have to read the rest of the posts tonight as I'm busy atm.

I was trying to highlight the fact that the statement is meaningless.

I was hoping that if you can see why it is meaningless, then that would resolve the issue.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
How are your cable longs getting on a la Cablemonster's thread - ie your methodology to keep buying in a clear downtrend ?

That was exited in the pro-scalping thread owing to superior psychology in there, when the cable thread got decidedly chilly in a loosing streak. I was up and down 150. I was looking for 1000-2000, but it wasn't happening this time. There's always next time, you know.

I have several methods. What you saw was just one. Here's another method. It's a clear down trend too.

156630d1361386718-take-10-pips-hope-breakout-method.jpg
 

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BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
Yes, I suppose it must be the rarefied atmosphere on that 0.5% cloud that does it. Such a shame that, with that special vision not given to the rest of us, your contributions to the boards are 99.5% (there's that percentage cropping up again :LOL:) destructive with the odd "I know something you don't know" thrown in just to keep the pot boiling. All very helpful to many, I'm sure.

As the official statements checker/verifier, my contributions can only be described as unparalleled. My rendering of statement checking 24/7 really should earn me a sizeable share options allocation from the CEO.


I won't ask for a statement

That only saves the reciprocality. I know how sensitive the statement can be from the last time we discussed about it. But never fear, I stated I wouldn't ask you again. I am a man of my words. Here's my current statement. The manipulators only allowed me to take home 20 out of the 50 pips available on the long. So I want them to pay me some more on the short before I am done.

156634d1361391409-take-10-pips-hope-breakout-statement.jpg
 

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ZEN archer

Experienced member
1,528 241
I have a strategy that I can get about 5-20 pips or so pretty easy.

Try to be realistic - it won't help you if you make decisions according to what may be pleasing to imagine instead of reality (unless you believe that positive thinking may positively affect your behaviour and bring better results)
 
 
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