Take 10 pips or hope for breakout?

ffsear

Senior member
2,250 495
Thats nice!.. it does make you look like you have a bit of a chip on your shoulder though! :S
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
If you can - back test a good sample of the trades you have taken (say a 100 sample for eg) and see what the strike rate (emplying your usual trade management rules) was of a risk reward of 1;1, 1:1.5, and 1:2 for eg...then woork out the strike arte and expectancy/trade from those stats and decide which one may be better for you. Do the same exercise on another separate 100 trade sample and compare results .

Was this question prompted by the Gbpusd reaction to that 6-3 MPC vote in the minutes released this morning and strong downside sell off of £ ?

G/L

I have a strategy that I can get about 5-20 pips or so pretty easy. Sometimes I take profit there and it goes on to do 50-100-200+ pips and that annoys me or I'll move stop up to break even when it's ~5 pips profit and it stops out even after hitting 10+ pips or so.

The problem or conundrum I'm having is whether to just take the 5-20 pips when it's there or just move my stop to break even and hope for 100+ pips? I know that you know nothing about the setup I use, it's sort of a combo of a trend following and a band trading strategy.

Just mentioning two trades(I made almost 10 trades so far this week, all break even and one stopped out at a loss), I went long USDCAD and took profit at about 12 pips, but then it went on for another 50. I also went long EURUSD, I could have taken profit at about 10 pips, but then just moved my stop to break even and got stopped out. Just judging from these two trades, it seems move the stop up and hope for more is a better bet, but I just wanted to hear from someone more experienced.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
I have a strat that makes 10 pips on 75% of the entries, but it loses 100 pips on the other 25% - can you make me rich ?

I may be able to. But I will have to see the characteristics of the strat. Call out 10 trades will suffice.
 
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NVP

Legendary member
37,767 2,101
I have a strategy that I can get about 5-20 pips or so pretty easy. Sometimes I take profit there and it goes on to do 50-100-200+ pips and that annoys me or I'll move stop up to break even when it's ~5 pips profit and it stops out even after hitting 10+ pips or so.

The problem or conundrum I'm having is whether to just take the 5-20 pips when it's there or just move my stop to break even and hope for 100+ pips? I know that you know nothing about the setup I use, it's sort of a combo of a trend following and a band trading strategy.

Just mentioning two trades(I made almost 10 trades so far this week, all break even and one stopped out at a loss), I went long USDCAD and took profit at about 12 pips, but then it went on for another 50. I also went long EURUSD, I could have taken profit at about 10 pips, but then just moved my stop to break even and got stopped out. Just judging from these two trades, it seems move the stop up and hope for more is a better bet, but I just wanted to hear from someone more experienced.

split the trade into 2 (or even 3)......apply different Exit strategies to each and net the best of all worlds ...:smart:.

N
 
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the hare

Senior member
2,949 1,283
I have a strat that makes 10 pips on 75% of the entries, but it loses 100 pips on the other 25% - can you make me rich ?

It would be very rare indeed to find a system with such a large negative edge ! If you find one, let me know :)
 
N

neil324

0 0
Just set it up mechanically. Take 2/3 off leave 1/3 to run.

Job done.
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
So a 'sample size' of 10 trades is sufficient for you to determine whether a long term viable edge exists is it ?

Lets say it is, and that the 75% strike rate stands up (ie 75% winning trades as a % of total trades,) and I win 10 pips on each of the winning trades but lose 40 pips on each of the remaining losing trades...so I win 75pips (7.5 x 10) on the winners and lose 100pips on the losers (2.5 x 40)....to make this an overal winning strategy you would need to increase stake size with each losing trade (dutching/martingale)...what size bank in units should I consider using if I am starting with 1 unit as the 1st trade of the sequence ?



G/L


I may be able to. But I will have to see the characteristics of the strat. Call out 10 trades will suffice.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
So a 'sample size' of 10 trades is sufficient for you to determine whether a long term viable edge exists is it ?

Lets say it is, and that the 75% strike rate stands up (ie 75% winning trades as a % of total trades,) and I win 10 pips on each of the winning trades but lose 40 pips on each of the remaining losing trades...so I win 75pips (7.5 x 10) on the winners and lose 100pips on the losers (2.5 x 40)....to make this an overal winning strategy you would need to increase stake size with each losing trade (dutching/martingale)...what size bank in units should I consider using if I am starting with 1 unit as the 1st trade of the sequence ?



G/L

As you already know my belief about the market, 10 trades is plenty, assuming you don't get kicked in the b*lls much sooner than that.

Who said anything about martingale ? We can get into the details once you have demonstrated you can produce what you claim. As for the sample size, I have my own ways of assessing it and make allowances where reasonable.

If you succeed with the test call outs, then I will trade 10 more call outs using micro size to ensure the market is given an opportunity to react to real trades, and see how you do then. If you still succeed, then we are in a position to talk about bank sizes.
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
The initial question was rhetorical to demonstrate that it's not all about entries,...I have no such edge - it was a ficticious example as others clearly understood judging by the rep given to the post. Doh !

As you already know my belief about the market, 10 trades is plenty, assuming you don't get kicked in the b*lls much sooner than that.

Who said anything about martingale ? We can get into the details once you have demonstrated you can produce what you claim. As for the sample size, I have my own ways of assessing it and make allowances where reasonable.

If you succeed with the test call outs, then I will trade 10 more call outs using micro size to ensure the market is given an opportunity to react to real trades, and see how you do then. If you still succeed, then we are in a position to talk about bank sizes.
 
C

cablemonster

0 0
oh darn it.
 

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BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
The initial question was rhetorical to demonstrate that it's not all about entries,...I have no such edge - it was a ficticious example as others clearly understood judging by the rep given to the post. Doh !

It's unsurprising to me you have no such edge. You'd be rich if you did. But I always give people a chance to prove their claim. Now I hope split can see the utility of my asking for statements. Otherwise all the newbs will start grasping at any straw going.
 

bbmac

Veteren member
3,584 788
No I am not surprised either - any edge with a negative expectancy which this one as I have described it - has - is no edge I am interested in - but you clearly were and that too is unsurprising to me lol!

It's unsurprising to me you have no such edge. You'd be rich if you did. But I always give people a chance to prove their claim. Now I hope split can see the utility of me asking for statements. Otherwise all the newbs will start grasping at any straw going.
 

BeginnerJoe

Senior member
3,329 350
No I am not surprised either - any edge with a negative expectancy which this one as I have described it - has - is no edge I am interested in - but you clearly were and that too is unsurprising to me lol!

It's only negative because you can't see what I can see. I think you are cross eyed from staring too much at all the lines in your chart to see things clearly, to see there are other possibilities.
 
 
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