System cheats??

[misssnp]

anyone know anything about this system? any thoughts would be appreciated.
here: https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/automated-trading-strategy-00-the

 

[1nvest]

anyone know anything about this system? any thoughts would be appreciated.
here: https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/automated-trading-strategy-00-the

my thoughts are, that they would have to pay me to trade a system that loses 75% of the time, not the other way around

 

[Rufus_Leakey]

https://automatedtradingstrategies.substack.com/p/automated-trading-strategy-00-the

"This can’t be real. Spoiler Alert: It isn’t."

 

[misssnp]

my thoughts are, that they would have to pay me to trade a system that loses 75% of the time, not the other way around

its not about the percentage accuracy of 25% winners, its about expectancy, 25% winners coupled with a profit to loss ratio of 10 to 1 creates an enormous edge... as is the converse, 75% accuracy with 1 to 2 ratio. True psychologically its harder to trade a system that loses predominantly in terms of accuracy, but in the end its all about performance.

 

[1nvest]

its not about the percentage accuracy of 25% winners, its about expectancy, 25% winners coupled with a profit to loss ratio of 10 to 1 creates an enormous edge... as is the converse, 75% accuracy with 1 to 2 ratio. True psychologically its harder to trade a system that loses predominantly in terms of accuracy, but in the end its all about performance.

I would agree, in part. Its not JUST about % winners however it forms a large part (for me at least)
but again, I'd want to be paid to trade 2000 times in a year on the chance that i hadn't given up on the strategy the 76th out of 100 times for that 1:10 profit factor. Not only pay me, but give me the seed money to trade it in the first place. My expectations are higher regardless of the gorgeous looking equity curve that as has been stated already, is merely fiction

 

[Trader333]

Looking at the "supposed performance" of this stratgey it is showing 1944 trades over a 12 month time frame. Taking into consideration that there are around 20 trading days a month then the average number of trades per day is 1944/(12 x 20) = 8 per day which is significant. Many years ago I posted the formula that allows you to determine the maximum consecutive winning and losing trades based on lose percentage and amount of trades taken which is:

C = Ln(X)/-Ln(Y)

Where C = Consecutive Losing trades
X = Number of trades made
Y = Losing percentage of trades

So in this case we have: Consecutive losses = Ln(1944)/-Ln(75) = 26 and also shows consecutive wins = 5.

From all the traders that I have known, the liklihood that any of them could handle that many losses in a row and stick to their trading plan is almost zero and as such this strategy is not viable. If you wanted to follow something similar that gives a high return then the Turtles strategy (which is freely available) would, in my view, be as good if not better than this.