Swing Trading

[robertbanking]

Hello you very wonderful and intelligent individuals that make up these forums. I sincerely hope everything is going well for you.

I have been spending alot of time trying to find the best Swing Trading setup, i find using a few indicators like MACD, with support and resistance works the best. Using too many indicators overly complicates things and does not improve the trading experience. I kindly wondered please how you go about initially finding stocks to trade, do you use a stock screener and look for stocks that for instance might be trading at a 6 monthly high or any other criteria please? I find i am spending too long reviewing individual stocks from investing articles but alot are not very good for trading. If anyone kindly had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and it would mean the world to me.

Sending you lots of good wishes and i truly hope you achieve massive success in the stock market. Very best wishes to you and hope you enjoy this festive period. All the very best.

 

[1nvest]

Best Indicators

Hello you very wonderful and amazing individuals that make up this forum. I sincerely hope you are having a nice weekend. I please wondered i have been taking a short course on swing trading stocks over a few weeks and months. I know there is lots of indicators that can be used to gauge whether...

www.trade2win.com

Robert, you've asked the exact same question on this thread. Were the comments i made not helpful?
The last thing i want to do is waste your and my time in which case just tell me to jog on in future i'll not be offended. my ideas and opinions are mine and they work remarkably well for me. Doesnt mean everyone can get the same pleasure.
If on the other hand, you couldnt put into practice, then you you are always welcome to drop me a note
happy and festive greetings to you too

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your response 1nvest that is very kind of you. I very much hope you are having a pleasant week.

My sincere apologies 1nvest, i should probably have explained myself. You have been exceptionally helpful in the past and your help has been amazing. You are a wonderful human being, your previous comments have been very helpful. I have been refining my strategy, working with Moving Averages and a few oscillators, trading support and resistance lines. This is easier when a stock is trading in a channel such as sideways.

I was just wondering the best way to find these stocks on a screener, that are possibly going to be good trades for the support and resistance lines please? I know previously we spoke about trading the all time high, which is quite easy to find on a stock screener. However, i was wondering how i could find lucrative stocks that would be good to trade the support and resistance please without simply manually selecting random stocks to review the charts? If you kindly had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would be highly appreciated and mean the world to me.

Sending you lots of good wishes 1nvest and thank you very much for your wonderful happy and festive greetings. Good luck with your future endeavours and hope you achieve massive success in the stock market. Very best wishes.

 

[1nvest]

trading support and resistance lines

You know what Robert, im not offended that you haven't taken on board my suggestion, which as you say is very easy to scan for which is very much the point. 52 week highs and 52 week lows have been around longer than i have. I'm glad you've been able to refine it and make it your own. Alas, in doing so, you've hit a problem, and its a common one.
Just my opinion, but i cant trade off support and resistance, or trend lines mainly because they are completely subjective. my trend line, or my support often encompasses a range, rather a neatly drawn line with absolutely no roof for forgiveness. and often i can only ever know them in hindsight. thats just me. perhaps i lack that skill.

nevertheless
so my question, before i might be able to help you, is..
how are you determining support and resistance? Are these lines you have drawn yourself?
Or, are these lines based on a previous high/low for example? and can you define what that high or low is (ie lookback period..the last 6 month high/low)
what im getting at, is how would you quantify it?

you also mention a channel...can you define this channel? again, could this channel be something like the price has been trading between its high for the last 3 months and low for the last 3 months..again just an example?

as you can imagine, this screener, wont know what you have defined as a channel, it wont know what you have defined as support/resistance unless you tell it. so how have you defined it and that may determine the tool you need to achieve what you want?
If you havent defined it, then show me, perhaps. what does it look like and again i may be able to help both define it, and how to screen for it

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your detailed message 1nvest that is very kind of you. I really appreciate your detailed response, thank you very much.

The 52 week highs are very easy to screen for, i often find it very volatile for trading, hence me trading support and resistance levels. You can often get a rapid pullback and sometimes you get a 52 week high and this continues the uptrend further. I have never really mastered this, even with lots of different indicators and reviewing the chart structure unfortunately.

The support and resistance trading, are ones i have drawn on the chart manually. As an example, on the stock Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT), if you look at the YTD chart, you will see the stock has been in a long term downtrend. Since October to December 23 this stock has been trading sideways in a channel and i have made some profit from trading the support and resistance lines each week. There is a range between 1.85 and 2.54 plus a long term downtrend, the range is quite wide 30% ie 0.70 USD, so it has been good for trading.

I kindly wondered please how i would find stocks that are trading in a channel, rather than a breakout, as it appears more stable for trading. If you could please kindly help or how i could screen for stocks like this it would be highly appreciated please? It really would mean the world to me for any help you could give.

Sending you lots of good wishes 1nvest and i very much hope you continue to achieve massive success with your trading strategy. Very best wishes to you and thanks again for being a kind and wonderful person. You are a credit to these forums here at Trade2win. Hope you have a lovely weekend.

 

[1nvest]

No problem, we're talking about this clearly very recently..

so that i understand...
1) you want a very strong trending stock, which has "paused" in its downtrend and gone nowhere for about 8 weeks
2) what timeframe are you looking at? Daily, as i've drawn it?
3) lastly, when did you actually start trading this particular setup, as you could not have known it was in a range until the last 4 weeks or so?

if there are any other criteria, let me know

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your reply 1nvest, i truly hope everything is going well for you and i appreciate your help with this very much.

I agree i am looking for a stock which has paused its downtrend and then trading sideways in a channel. I am looking at the daily timeframe. I did start trading this in the last 4 weeks when i could clearly see the trade and it was trading in a range. If you kindly had any ideas on how to screen for this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would mean the world to me please?

Hope you are continuing to enjoy your weekend 1nvest and i truly hope you achieve massive success in the stock market and have a wonderful life. All the very best.

 

[1nvest]

Hi Robert, if you recall in the other post about which indicators to use, i suggested the Aroon Indicator
In order to identify strong uptrends, the aroon up would be at 100. Ie new highs are being made
For downtrends the Aroon down is at 100, suggesting new lows are being made

conversely, when the Aroon up (blue below) is less than 100 and when the Aroon down (red below) is less than 100 no new highs or lows are taking place
ie price is in a pullback or in a range. I've highlighted below when this is taking place. switch to the daily chart when this happens and you are getting what you are after
That could be one way of identifying a range..no new highs or lows. the problem with this is obvious, it may only be short lived. the ideal would be to have a tool that allows you to screen on whether this has been the case for x days.

Trading view allows you to screen for Aroon above or below values, equally most other screeners will do this also
Finviz allows you to screen for %above or below highs or lows.

Another suggestion and this is just from my own experience. keep your watchlist to a minimum.
I dont use screeners, it simply takes a second to scroll through each symbol and immediately identify i need to buy, scale in, scale out, or get out completely
The watchlist needs to have 1 symbol for the market I'm looking at, a dozen or so symbols for each sector within that market, and then my favourite 2 or 3 stocks/ETFs from each sector.
Immediately I can identify the top performing market, which sectors from that market are outperforming, and then look through the stocks from those sectors. if those 2 or 3 arent doing what you want, the chances are high the others arent.

Again, just a suggestion. my method may not be suitable for yourself

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your very helpful response 1nvest that was really kind of you to reply in so much detail, i am extremely grateful for your response.

I really like what you said about the Aroon indicator, when the blue is below 100 and red is less than 100, no new highs or lows are confirmed, so this could help identify a range. Thank you so much, that is the information i have been trying to figure out i really appreciate your support with this.

Can i kindly please ask what is your favourite sector of the market that you believe is outperforming at the moment, or you have done best with your trading strategy please? Further what stocks or ETFs you have had the most success with please? If you please had any thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful.

I appreciate all your support 1nvest, you have been a wonderful help. You are definitely the best member on this forum and i wish you continue success with your trading strategy. All the very best to you.

 

[1nvest]

Glad to help..another metric that you could use, which i saw somewhere, was where the rate of change for say 20 days was close to zero, suggesting no growth over that period. I thought that was quite a good one, which you can get from almost any screener

As for leading sectors and stocks..
Sectors by Annualised Rate of Change
clear favourites being Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Communications..top 3 sectors
I rotate into top 3 based on ROC

My top 10 stocks again which i rotate into based on ROC

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much again for your wonderful and very helpful post, it really means alot. I am very grateful for your time and support.

The rate of change for 20 days if this was zero this is an indicator there is no growth, i appreciate you mentioning this, that is wonderful, i have kindly made a note of this. The data you provided with your favourite sectors being Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communications, i appreciate you providing that. Can i kindly please ask what software you have used to pull up that data you have provided in your screenshots with US Sector UK ETFs? I would be forever grateful and thankful for your help with this please.

Thanks again for your support it really is highly appreciated. Hope you have a wonderful rest of the week and everything continues to go well for you 1nvest. I am very grateful for your replies, you are amazing.

 

[1nvest]

Can i kindly please ask what software you have used to pull up that data you have provided in your screenshots with US Sector UK ETFs? I would be forever grateful and thankful for your help with this please.

Of course, its Sharescope

 

[cara2]

Handy link : https://www.cnbc.com/sector-etfs/ (There's a sideways scroll bar)

 

[robertbanking]

Of course, its Sharescope

Thank you very much for all your support 1nvest that has been fabulous. You are a very amazing person. I really do appreciate your time. I have made some notes on what you have said and i am going to have a play around with things.

Can i kindly please ask if you had some time lastly, if you had any thoughts on whether the downtrend on Theratechnologies Inc (TSE: TH) may reverse please? I was thinking of building up a small position here as there is the potential for an FDA approval of a new drug in January 2024, ready for use on patients and there has been alot of insider buying by directors. It is a tricky chart to understand, i please kindly wondered do you feel there is strength to shift this back up to an uptrend please, as there is hardly any short interest in this stock, but dont understand why it has fallen so much? If you kindly had time to leave your thoughts on this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would mean the world to me.

Sending you lots of good wishes 1nvest and i truly hope everything continues to go well for you. You are a wonderful and amazing person, thanks for your help, you are exceptional. Very best wishes to you.

 

[1nvest]

Theratechnologies Inc (TSE: TH) may reverse

You really do look at the worst possible stocks Robert
The chart is not tricky at all.
It may well reverse, however I personally wouldnt waste my time waiting for it to happen. I never buy on the hope it will recover, i buy when it is recovering and showing strength across all timeframes, and then i buy more as its strength increases. TH is showing no signs of that whatsoever.
Just my view of course, it may rocket over the next couple of days..i just have better places to put my hard earned money in the mean time

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much for your very helpful response 1nvest, i appreciate your help, you have been exceptional.

I appreciate your view on the strategy you use, which is to wait for the stock to show strength and then buying more as the strength increases. Can i kindly please ask lastly, have you an example trade you have made for a stock recently using your strategy and the chart please? Further what were the Technical Indicators you used to complete the trade please? If you kindly had time to answer this i would be forever grateful and thankful it would mean the world to me and be highly appreciated.

Thanks very much for being so helpful and kind you are amazing. As we get nearer to Christmas i want to wish you a fantastic and peaceful Christmas and hope next year is amazing for you, hope your success continues. Very best wishes to you.

 

[1nvest]

have you an example trade you have made for a stock recently using your strategy and the chart please?

Hi Robert, I've already mentioned about the rotation into the Sector ETFs. This was done recently and reflected in one of the accounts i use

Additionally, the 10 stocks in another account both of these using an annualised Rate of Change. I prefer to keep strategies segregated. They are both momentum based strategies. they both perform very well
I have another account where i look at longer term trends, and this one stock Novo Nordisk which is the most recent i've had now since August. Novo Nordisk reached its 52week highs after a small pullback. Its up 19% since August and this month it has failed to make a new high. I will add more to this one, as soon as it does. and will keep on adding more after every fresh new high

The chart..

Equally i have other accounts where i use mutual funds, and these again are based on 52 week highs
I use both momentum and trend based strategies, when the broader market is in an uptrend.
I also hedge equity with a holding of government bonds, or cash, as can be seen above
and lastly commodities and precious metals, using trend following only
so, in summary I diversify the strategies i use across diversified instruments, and those instruments are limited to no more than 40 symbols. I dont need screeners. If they are not trending, i go to cash. Very very simple yet very effective and requires very little maintenance

Hope this helps Robert..good luck and festive greetings to you

 

[cara2]

NovoNordisk, if I have the right stock, was doing well because it had a weight loss drug newly out.

Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy slashes risk of serious heart events

The findings could expand use of Wegovy and help Novo maintain its lead over Eli Lilly, whose competing weight-loss drug Zepbound was just approved in the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

but then not doing so well because of more side effects.... I'm, not following it so I didn't record where.

I'm attracted to the idea of buying by sector rathher than single stocks. Even that, though, upsets my wife who is happer getting 5% p.a.in a savings account.
20% p.a. is better and achievable atthe moment so I'll aim for that with pensions.
It's so far off the realisable profits of Day Trading though, swapping between stocks, that I'm not enthusiastic. I'm posting a new thread "Earning day and night" whoe purpose is to ask a question about Asian stocks. I'll post a link here

 

[robertbanking]

Thank you very much again for another exceptional post 1nvest, thank you from the bottom of my heart for your kindness. Your last post really gave me a few ideas and i am really thankful for your help with this.

I suppose my strategy trading the support and resistance lines in a channel, is alot more work and i suppose the margins trading the support and resistance are not as large for instance as the Momentum trading, that you are carrying out. I think i over complicate things, where your strategy seems perfect and its very easy to understand.

Sorry to bother you again, i appreciate you must be very busy with your investing, if you kindly had time to answer these last 2 questions, it would mean the world to me. Can i kindly ask regarding your annualised Rate of Change strategy for sectors, what does the annualised Rate of Change need to be for a momentum trade please and is there any other variables you look at before confirmation of a trade please? I love your longer term trends strategy i feel this is excellent, Novo Nordisk is an excellent example. Can i kindly ask please ask with your 52 week high strategy, with Novo Nordisk what are you kindly looking for at the confirmation of your long term strategy, i always worry after a pullback, the stock may trade sideways or even enter a reversal period? My heart goes out to you for your help, you are a star.

I am sincerely sorry maybe i should have not tried to create my own strategy and followed your guidance previously, i think i was too overwhelmed with everything. Your screenshots and guidance has been really valuable, thanks again for your kindness and help, thank you really doesn't say enough for all your support. Very best wishes to you.

 

[1nvest]

I am sincerely sorry maybe i should have not tried to create my own strategy and followed your guidance previously, i think i was too overwhelmed with everything. Your screenshots and guidance has been really valuable, thanks again for your kindness and help, thank you really doesn't say enough for all your support. Very best wishes to you.

In March 2022 you were looking at Swing Trading..

Technical Analysis / Swing Trading

Hello you wonderful people, i do hope that you are having a great week and are staying happy. I have been doing alot of research on technical analysis of stocks and swing trading. I find this a very exciting area and have been practising with a few demo accounts, doing various trades. In...

www.trade2win.com

It was only a few months ago that you were asking questions on Momentum Investing...

Momentum Investing

Hello you very wonderful and intelligent people that make up this forum. I sincerely hope you are doing well and you are happy. I have been reading alot of books and did a course on Momentum Trading / Investing, which looks for certain trends or popular sectors in the market. I kindly wondered...

www.trade2win.com

Not interested in Momentum, and we're back to swing again with this thread and your last one. You said you even went on a course.
and then when i give advice, you ignore it, and you are once again looking at momentum and trend following.
Its no wonder you feel overwhelmed. Every post sends you in a different direction. What happened to the course? surely there was a reason you went down swing trading
My advice is stick to one disciple, and master it. Just one.

Why not start a thread where you tell me what indicators you have tried, and what worked or didnt work for you?
what discipline (swing, momentum) did you try, how long did you try it for so that you can confidently say it doesnt work?
what was it about the discipline that did or didnt work?
You've got to at least try these things for yourself. asking for indicators will burn another year and 9 months of wasted opportunities

make a new years resolution to learn one discipline. read everything you can on that discipline. what white papers have been written, what strategies already exist around your chosen discipline. what books have you read on the subject and which ones have you tried?
you dont need courses, you dont need you-tube. you just need an idea that gives an element of positive expectancy and give it a go...with conviction

i look forward to your new endeavours in 2024 Robert