Swing trading technical analysis

Sep 4, 2016
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#16
Daily Analysis 16-Oct

It's turn around Tuesday!

The Dow closed up over 2% whilst the Nasdaq closed over 3% up. Just now we had some earnings. Netflix beat whilst IBM missed on revenue.

Looking at the charts, the Dow had a solid bounce and held the 25k level. That was always possible with conditions being very overbought and the 200 daily moving average holding for a couple of days around 25100. The Nasdaq reclaimed the 40 weekly moving average around 7060. So where do we go from here?..
My view is that there is some more upside potential with the Dow testing the 26k level and going as high as 26100 even. This is also just above the 50% fib retracement level from the recent sell off.
The Nasdaq has a little further to run and could hit 7360 with a max potential of 7420. These are big levels so once they hit, the sellers are likely to come in or those that are long are likely to take chips off the table.

These up moves are going to be as crazy as some of the down moves because the volatility has risen therefore expect bigger day ranges and trade with caution.
 
Sep 4, 2016
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#17
The Dow closed up over 2% whilst the Nasdaq closed over 3% up. Just now we had some earnings. Netflix beat whilst IBM missed on revenue.

Looking at the charts, the Dow had a solid bounce and held the 25k level. That was always possible with conditions being very overbought and the 200 daily moving average holding for a couple of days around 25100. The Nasdaq reclaimed the 40 weekly moving average around 7060. So where do we go from here?..
My view is that there is some more upside potential with the Dow testing the 26k level and going as high as 26100 even. This is also just above the 50% fib retracement level from the recent sell off.
The Nasdaq has a little further to run and could hit 7360 with a max potential of 7420. These are big levels so once they hit, the sellers are likely to come in or those that are long are likely to take chips off the table.

These up moves are going to be as crazy as some of the down moves because the volatility has risen therefore expect bigger day ranges and trade with caution.[/QUOTE]
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#18
Daily Analysis 17-Oct

We had pretty much a nothing day as equities had a choppy session following Fed minutes showing they are on course to continue the rate hikes. The US Dollar was the real winner out of that headline.

The Dow looks on course to try and test the 26k level following the doji formation today. That will be a big test for the bulls if we get there.. to see if that resistance level holds.

I've included the daily crude chart as I posted on the 5th that crude would have a big week last week which it did. It managed to fill the gap it left around 7070 and sold off sharply on poor inventory numbers today. I expect the downside to continue with the next big support level around the 200 daily moving average at $68
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#19
Daily Analysis 19-Oct

US stocks ended the week finishing slightly lower although the Dow managed to eek out a gain. There is an underlying nervousness brewing in the equity market at the moment as it struggles to hold onto gains.

The Nasdaq weekly chart shows an inverse hammer formation and highlights weakness as it hovers just above the 40 week moving average around 7050. It is entirely possible that this level gets taken out next week because the way it closed the week suggests there is potential follow through coming next week.

The Dow similarly gave up nearly all its gains and is delicately poised above the 200 daily moving average around 25100. Technology has been on an unbelievable run over the last year or so and I feel technology is likely to lead us lower so I will be watching the Nasdaq very closely especially that 40 week moving average. If the Nasdaq breaks, the other indices will follow. Next week could be big!
Have a good weekend folks
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#20
Daily Analysis 22-Oct

It was a day of nothing for the Dow Jones whilst a day of something for the Nasdaq. The Dow and S&P500 closed relatively flat. Despite China boosting stimulus hopes, Trump talking up tax cuts in the US. and Moodys keeping Italy's credit rating stable, there wasn't much to show for it in the equity market.

The Nasdaq hung onto the 40 week moving average around 7050 as investors look ahead to earnings. I think the stage has been set for the big tech names. If one of the big FANG names miss this week it could be the catalyst for a breakdown. On the flip side we could push towards the 20 week moving average around 7280/7300 if earnings are better than expected.

The Dow looks like it wants to crawl higher but is also delicately poised near the 200 daily moving average. The MACD is beginning to turn a corner so there could be potential for some upside. However any upside is likely to be limited and constitute to inside bar action. Any longs should be tactical with a target of 25820/26000. Continue to watch the Nasdaq as that will be the trigger point for US equities.
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#21
Daily Analysis 23-Oct

Volatility strikes back!

Equities made a remarkable recovery considering the S&P500 and Nasdaq were both lower by more than 2% whilst the Dow was down around 550 points at the lows.
The media quote the driver being a rush into defensive and consumer staples stocks however if you look at the Dow daily chart, it was always going to bounce off that 24750 area as it hit the bottom part of the rising channel. If you look back at my post on the 11th, this was entirely possible once the 25k level was taken out.
I still believe this is minor support and the bounce we are having will most likely continue into tomorrow considering the sharp snap back we had today. We could still test 25400 and possibly 25500.

The Nasdaq also looked like it had broke the 40 week moving average only to recover above it. I believe for it to break convincingly a FANG stock will likely need to disappoint on earnings. The volatility is likely here to stay so continue to expect some crazy daily ranges on both the up and downside. Ultimately I think we go lower but there might be a few bumps along the way...
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#22
Daily Analysis 25-Oct

Equities rebounded after a tumultuous day yesterday which saw major US indices breaking their 200 daily moving averages. The Dow came back today along with the other indices to retest that 200 daily moving average. On the Dow the 200 daily moving average sits around 25100 which we are not far from at the moment.. the highs were on point at the 200 DMA.

Tomorrow will be a big test whether the 200 DMA holds...if it does then the bears continue to hold control. The Dow could sneak above it intra-day and I think we could yet see 25200/250. There are US GDP numbers out tomorrow so that could create some more volatility.

I've included the US Dollar chart today because it looks to be making a run at breaking the 200 weekly moving average. I believe we could break through the downward sloping trend line that connects from the highs from the beginning of last year and target the 9750/9800 area. Fundamentally, if the GDP numbers come in line or better it will boost the greenback. A strong US dollar however is not good news for stocks as it hurts overseas earnings growth so keep an eye on the dollar vs equity correlation.
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#23
Daily Analysis 26-Oct

Equities continued to fall as both Amazon and Alphabet missed on the bottom line in their Q3 earnings report.

The Nasdaq weekly chart closed below the 40 week moving average around 7042. Earlier in the week, I suggested one of the big names in technology could be the trigger to confirm a breakdown in the Nasdaq and it turned out to be heavyweights Amazon and Alphabet. The Nasdaq is likely to continue falling over the coming week and 6500 is likely to be the next big support level.

On the Dow, the daily chart shows it tried to retest the lower end of the rising channel around 24900. The Dow also looks like it will continue declining as it broke key technical levels, in particular the key 200 daily moving average around 25100. Expect further downside and any rallies are likely to get faded.
In terms of earnings, Apple reports next week so that could move markets substantially, worth keeping an eye on that one.

Enjoy the weekend folks
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#24
Daily Analysis 29-Oct

What a turn around we had today.. all indices finished lower after being up quite significantly. It's very much a fade the rally market at the moment as the Dow daily chart almost re-tested the 200 daily moving average again. It also closed firmly lower beneath the second rising trend line confirming a breakdown. The Dow looks destined to want to test the 24k level which was the bottom from June this year (blue support line). I ultimately believe we end up going to around 23000/23100 which was the February lows. In terms of triggers this week, we have Facebook earnings tomorrow, Apple on Thursday and non farm payrolls on Friday. Any one of these events could trigger big moves either way. Expect it to be a volatile week!
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#25
Daily Analysis 30-Oct

US stocks had a big bounce on Tuesday as there was a late surge in the trading day.
The Dow daily chart shows that we have come back to that trend line we broke out from last week. There could be a test of the 200 daily moving average again at 25100 but then it is likely to face some more selling pressure.
Facebook beat on earnings after the bell but missed on revenue and daily active user numbers. The stock is down around 2% after hours which could impact sentiment tomorrow.. keep an eye on that 200 daily moving average tomorrow as the bears are likely to be tested.
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#26
Daily Analysis 31-Oct

US stocks finished the last day of October higher after what has been a bad month for bulls in a long time. The Dow rose as expected but pushed through the 200 daily moving average intra-day, only to finish right at the 200 daily moving average at 25100. The high of the day came around the the 20 daily moving average around 25300 but got faded towards the end of the trading session. It remains to be seen whether we break above the 200 day or whether today was simply a fake out to push stops on the short side. I believe today was an opportunity for weak shorts to get kicked out but there are Apple earnings tomorrow which is likely to dictate which way the Dow ends up going. With the fade we had today there is a possibility that we remain below the 200 daily moving average unless a blowout earnings report from Apple pushes us above it.

I've included the USD weekly chart as I mentioned in a post last week that the USD is looking to make a move to the upside...that looks to be materialising this week as we see it break above the 200 weekly moving average. I believe the USD has room to run and 9750 is likely to be the next level of resistance.
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#27
Daily Analysis 01-Nov

US stocks continued rising for a third straight day as Trump revived hopes of US and China resolving their trade dispute. I am less optimistic anything will come from this but it created a feel good factor which boosted stocks.
The Dow daily chart shows that the 200 daily moving average (25100) has been breached and it looks like the Dow is heading for the 40 day moving average around 25550/25600.This will be a big test as it is a big level to overcome.
Apple just reported earnings with poor forward guidance for the rest of the year disappointing investors. The stock is down over 4% in after hours trading. This could weigh on the market tomorrow. There is also non farm payrolls tomorrow so that could dictate where we end the week.

The USD has come back to retest the 200 weekly moving average around 9560/9580. This was on the back of upbeat news that the UK is close to sealing a financial services deal with the EU. Again, the payrolls report will have a big say on where the USD finishes the week. Keep an eye on that number along with how the market reacts to Apple's weak guidance...if it continues to stay under pressure, it could well drag indices down with it!
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#28
Daily Analysis 02-Nov

Three things weighed on the equity market today:
- Apple's forward guidance in its Q3 earnings report
- Higher yields on the back of a strong jobs report
- The white house playing games on a China deal

Apple remained under pressure all day and this certainly weighed on the Nasdaq and Dow. The non farm payrolls report came in at +250k which was better than expected and hourly earnings came in line which boosted the argument for further rate hikes.
However the biggest driver in my opinion was when Larry Kudlow rubbished claims that Trump had asked for a draft deal to be drawn up on China. We rallied for the last couple of days on this news but today we gave back some gains because it looks like fake news...
The Dow nonetheless did follow through initially and even surpassed my target of the 40 day moving average around 25550/600 with the highs coming in around 25720. The spike above was clearly a bull trap as it faded into the close finishing the day with a doji. Note, the lows of the day touched the 200 daily moving average so that continues to be key support. We need to break that for further downside.
The Nasdaq closed the week below the 40 week moving average around 7050 which is also significant because it maintains the bearish view since the price confirmed the break below the 40 week moving average. The Nasdaq daily attached shows we kissed the 200 daily moving average to the point at 7129.9. This will be key resistance and it looks like the downside is likely to continue next week. Keep an eye on the 200 daily moving averages on both charts as it will lead to big moves either way.
Have a good weekend folks
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#29
Daily Analysis 05-Nov

We've got a bit of a divergence going on between the Dow & S&P500 versus the Nasdaq. Nasdaq was pretty much flat on the day with the main driver being Apple whilst the other major indices finished up.
You've got the Dow daily chart pretty much negating the negative close we had at the end of last week whilst the Nasdaq continued where it left off and finished with a doji. The Nasdaq recovery does have a bullish undertone to it and I wouldn't be surprised if all indices start on the front foot tomorrow. However the Nasdaq for example will have to overcome some big resistance levels in order to progress further. First hurdle is 7030 followed by the 200 day at 7128. Even if it gets past the first one it will most likely struggle to breach the 200 day.
With the Dow, the obvious target will be the 40 day moving average at 25530 with the next level of resistance around 25620. The biggest level for the Dow is around 25800. This is probably where it will struggle should it get to that level. On the downside 25300 and 25100 are key support areas.
 

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Sep 4, 2016
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#30
Daily Analysis 07-Nov

The mid-term elections went as expected which the equity market cheered.
All major indices surged and even breached 200 daily moving averages.
The Dow broke through the 61.8% retracement level around 25900. The next level on the upside would be 26400. It could potentially go as high at the top of the rising trend line around 26800.

The S&P500 looks set to test the rising trend line it recently broke out of around 2845. It should be said that we are approaching overbought territory on the Dow daily chart therefore a pull back is also likely. Tomorrow is also Fed day, although no rate hike is expected. The key will be whether the Fed signals a hike is coming in December.. as it could make the equity market jittery again with sellers coming in.
 

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