Support/Resistance & Trend Lines

[FXAJ]

GBP/USD stopped

Current Orders
EUR/USD
Sell @ 1.2455, 75 pip stop
Buy @ 1.2405, 60 pip stop
Sell @ 1.2225, 60 pip stop

USD/JPY
Sell @ 89.05, 60 pip stop
Buy @ 88.45, 60 pip stop

GBP/USD
Buy @ 1.4825, 100 pip stop
Sell @ 1.4750, 60 pip stop

 

[FXAJ]

all orders pulled until Sunday

leaving USD/JPY open over the weekend

 

[FXAJ]

Sunday Orders - 27 June 2010

Open Positions
USD/JPY half position short from 90.20 stop at BE

Open Orders (will enter these after market opens...assuming it doesn't gap hard)

EUR/USD
Buy @ 1.2530, 75 pip stop
Sell @ 1.2455, 75 pip stop
Buy @ 1.2390, 60 pip stop
Sell @ 1.2240, 60 pip stop

USD/JPY
Sell @ 89.05, 60 pip stop

GBP/USD
Buy @ 1.4825, 100 pip stop
Sell @ 1.4780, 60 pip stop

I'll wrap June's trading up on Wednesday.

 

[FXAJ]

EUR/USD Long from 1.2390 open, stop is 1.2330

 

[FXAJ]

EUR/USD stopped

 

[FXAJ]

Amendments -

Sell EUR/USD @ 1.2250 (1.2240), 60 pip stop
Sell USD/JPY @ 89.10 (89.05), 60 pip stop

 

[FXAJ]

EUR/USD short from 1.2250
USD/JPY short from 90.10 (I'm going to trail my stop on this one by 60 points to BE, lots of tails down there and we've had a good move already)

 

[FXAJ]

Stop to BE on EUR/USD.
Order to close half @ 1.2130 in.

 

[FXAJ]

I'll move my stop on USD/JPY short half position from 90.20 to 89.40

 

[FXAJ]

Didn't think the Market would fall that hard
but I'm now long USD/JPY from 88.45 with a
60 pip stop.

 

[FXAJ]

I'll take half off EUR/USD short from 1.2250 here @ 1.2198
I'll take half off USD/JPY short from 89.10 here @ 88.51

Open Positions
EUR/USD short half position from 1.2250, stop @ 1.2250
USD/JPY short half position from 90.20, stop @ 89.40
USD/JPY short half position from 89.10, stop @ 89.10
USD/JPY long from 88.45, stop @ 87.85

Open Orders
EUR/USD
Sell @ 1.2455, 75 pip stop
Buy @ 1.2380, 60 pip stop

USD/JPY
Sell @ 87.85, 60 pip stop

GBP/USD
Sell @ 1.4855, 60 pip stop
Buy @ 1.4825, 100 pip stop
Sell @ 1.4725, 100 pip stop

 

[SharkBa1t]

I'll trail my stop by 60 pips on USD/JPY long from 88.45 to BE

 

[FXAJ]

I did it again! just assume SharkBa1t is me...unless he posts something rude

 

[weakpunter]

Ive often found that trends that continue usually fail in meeting the trendline i.e lets presume youve identified a downtrend then often what will occur is that when a lower low has been formed, it wont come back up on the retrace to the down trend line itself, so If Iam convinced the downtrend is going to continue I try to go short slightly below the trend line itself with my stop being if the trendline is broken , I think you can apply the same methodology to support and resistance, as the logic will show if there enough buyers or sellers whove identified the supp and res then it will fail to reach those levels and you need to get involved slighly below or above those prices, that is if they hold , and obviously bail out if they are broken.otherwise I find you end up having identified the trend or support or resistance correctly only to have not got filled at those prices .very frustrating indeed more so then being wrong and getting stopped out. However if you are trying to trade pinpoint on the trendline or bang on the supp/ress price then you have to identify those levels very early on as if you are looking for too much confirmation then the likelyhood will be that once it gets to your prices it will bust your entry points and breakout. Just a thought.

 

[FXAJ]

weakpunter - thanks for your thoughts

You're right. I think the philosophy of trading with the trend is correct but my backtesting has been only moderately successful in attempting to trade at the trendline (reversals and breaks - with breaks being more profitable over time). If you are a "trend trader" It's better to trade with the general trend direction and use other entry techniques.

This journal is more about looking for breaks in trends, preferably short term breaks in the direction of the major trend. However, I've found that I can get into big moves if I look for breaks of trendlines that are at least 2-3 months in duration. It can be very frustrating as in a single currency pair you can experience 3 to 9 months of negligible capital growth or drawdown during a choppy or consolidating period. Trading 2% risk I've seen periods of 20% to 30% drawdown.

I also like to trade reversals and breaks at support/resistance. I generally bracket the area with an ATR range and use that for my entry/stop. As you say, price sometimes reverses before support/resistance and other times it breaks and just keeps going.

It's my exits that really count. I think we're in a choppy section and they naturally appear after good moves hence I'm being a little more aggressive. I'm trying to reduce my drawdown during choppy / directionless periods but I'm aware that it will likely reduce my PnL over time. It’ll take further divergence in fundamentals to shift the markets again. I’ve no idea when that’ll happen but hopefully I’ll be in a position and adding to it when it does!

 

[FXAJ]

Remainder of EUR/USD short stopped at BE.

 

[weakpunter]

weakpunter - thanks for your thoughts

You're right. I think the philosophy of trading with the trend is correct but my backtesting has been only moderately successful in attempting to trade at the trendline (reversals and breaks - with breaks being more profitable over time). If you are a "trend trader" It's better to trade with the general trend direction and use other entry techniques.

This journal is more about looking for breaks in trends, preferably short term breaks in the direction of the major trend. However, I've found that I can get into big moves if I look for breaks of trendlines that are at least 2-3 months in duration. It can be very frustrating as in a single currency pair you can experience 3 to 9 months of negligible capital growth or drawdown during a choppy or consolidating period. Trading 2% risk I've seen periods of 20% to 30% drawdown.

I also like to trade reversals and breaks at support/resistance. I generally bracket the area with an ATR range and use that for my entry/stop. As you say, price sometimes reverses before support/resistance and other times it breaks and just keeps going.

It's my exits that really count. I think we're in a choppy section and they naturally appear after good moves hence I'm being a little more aggressive. I'm trying to reduce my drawdown during choppy / directionless periods but I'm aware that it will likely reduce my PnL over time. It’ll take further divergence in fundamentals to shift the markets again. I’ve no idea when that’ll happen but hopefully I’ll be in a position and adding to it when it does!

@FXAJ,

My pleasure , it took for me to have some serious losses before I clued onto that years ago. Good luck in your endeavours!!

 

[FXAJ]

Open Positions
USD/JPY short half position from 90.20, stop @ 89.40
USD/JPY short half position from 89.10, stop @ 89.10
USD/JPY long from 88.45, stop @ 87.85


Open Orders
EUR/USD
Sell @ 1.2455, 75 pip stop
Buy @ 1.2365, 60 pip stop

USD/JPY
Sell @ 87.85, 60 pip stop

GBP/USD
Sell @ 1.4885, 60 pip stop
Buy @ 1.4825, 100 pip stop
Sell @ 1.4725, 100 pip stop

 

[FXAJ]

June 2010 Trades

Overall
Down about 1.3R with stops in place. Roughly breakeven with open trade profit.

Reflections
Far too many trades reflecting choppy times for this month.
The middle of June was costly with 6 losses in a row followed by a couple of 2R trades then 4 more losses. I adjusted my trading to become a little more aggresive, which brought me back from the brink
I moved my stop a little tight on EUR/USD long from 1.1885, which was a result of my bias to short EUR and I didn't take any profit on the short from 1.2070, which I let stop out for a loss. My fundamental bias is still influencing my trading a little too much.

Date Instrument Strategy Signal Direction Entry Price Stop Exit Exit Date Risk RR
31/05/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Long 91.42 91.02 91.02 31/05/2010 100% -1.00
01/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.2156 1.2216 1.2216 01/06/2010 100% -1.00
01/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Long 1.4556 1.4496 1.465 01/06/2010 50% 0.78
01/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Long 1.4556 1.4496 1.467 01/06/2010 50% 0.95
02/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Long 91.5 91.1 92.3 03/06/2010 50% 1.00
02/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Long 91.5 91.1 91.5 06/06/2010 50% 0.00
02/06/2010 GBP/USD SupRes Reversal Short 1.4725 1.4825 1.4725 03/06/2010 100% 0.00
02/06/2010 USD/JPY SupRes Reversal Short 91.9 92.5 92.5 03/06/2010 100% -1.00
03/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Long 1.231 1.2255 1.2255 03/06/2010 100% -1.00
03/06/2010 USD/JPY SupRes Break Long 92.5 91.9 91.9 04/06/2010 100% -1.00
04/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.2075 1.213 1.213 10/06/2010 100% -1.00
04/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.4496 1.4556 1.4556 07/06/2010 100% -1.00
07/06/2010 EUR/USD SupRes Reversal Long 1.1885 1.181 1.205 11/06/2010 100% 2.20
07/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 91.55 91.95 91.95 07/06/2010 100% -1.00
11/06/2010 GBP/USD SupRes Reversal Short 1.4725 1.4825 1.4525 11/06/2010 100% 2.00
14/06/2010 USD/JPY SupRes Reversal Short 91.9 92.5 91.3 21/06/2010 100% 1.00
14/06/2010 GBP/USD SupRes Reversal Short 1.4725 1.4825 1.4825 15/06/2010 100% -1.00
15/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 91.15 91.55 91.55 15/06/2010 100% -1.00
15/06/2010 GBP/USD SupRes Break Long 1.4825 1.4725 1.4725 16/06/2010 100% -1.00
16/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.467 1.473 1.473 16/06/2010 100% -1.00
21/06/2010 EUR/USD SupRes Reversal Short 1.2455 1.253 1.2305 21/06/2010 50% 1.00
21/06/2010 EUR/USD SupRes Reversal Short 1.2455 1.253 1.2355 24/06/2010 50% 0.67
22/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.474 1.48 1.4705 22/06/2010 50% 0.29
22/06/2010 GBP/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.474 1.48 1.4775 22/06/2010 50% -0.29
22/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.234 1.24 1.2272 22/06/2010 50% 0.57
22/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.234 1.24 1.2355 24/06/2010 50% -0.13
23/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 90.2 90.6 89.6 24/06/2010 50% 0.75
23/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 90.2 90.6 89.4 50% 1.00
24/06/2010 GBP/USD Trend Break Long 1.4985 1.4885 1.4885 25/06/2010 100% -1.00
28/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Long 1.239 1.233 1.233 28/06/2010 100% -1.00
29/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 89.1 89.7 88.51 29/06/2010 50% 0.49
29/06/2010 USD/JPY Short Term Trend Break Short 89.1 89.7 89.1 50% 0.00
29/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.225 1.231 1.2198 29/06/2010 50% 0.43
29/06/2010 EUR/USD Short Term Trend Break Short 1.225 1.231 1.225 30/06/2010 50% 0.00

 

[FXAJ]

GBP/USD opened and stopped. News a little mixed today.

USD/JPY Long from 88.45 stopped @ 88.17.