sugar futures

[rainerg]

Hi everybody, I have a question. Can anybody tell me why sugarfutures March contract which was on the up until the evening of the 3rd FEB ( 3.3% from two days earlier) tanked after the announcement that the worlds 3 biggest sugar exporter lost between half a billion and a billion dollars worth of plant due to the huge cyclone which hit Queensland.Particularly since I believe Brazil has problems and India is not sure if they will export or not.
Manipulation on a grand scale?
I have lost faith.

 

[meanreversion]

The cyclone strike was not nearly as bad as feared, thus sparing much of the crop. I trade sugar #11 but in up to 2 lots only, due to extreme volatility. The range yesterday was 12%, high to low. This is nothing new, it had a 15% range day in November. Treat this one with extreme caution.

 

[crude_lover]

The cyclone strike was not nearly as bad as feared, thus sparing much of the crop. I trade sugar #11 but in up to 2 lots only, due to extreme volatility. The range yesterday was 12%, high to low. This is nothing new, it had a 15% range day in November. Treat this one with extreme caution.

sounds like a "sweet" deal........thank you i'm here all week.

 

[rainerg]

The cyclone strike was not nearly as bad as feared, thus sparing much of the crop. I trade sugar #11 but in up to 2 lots only, due to extreme volatility. The range yesterday was 12%, high to low. This is nothing new, it had a 15% range day in November. Treat this one with extreme caution.

Thanks for that, appreciated.
Cheers
Rainerg

 

[meanreversion]

Rainer, how do you trade sugar, I presume it's longer term, not scalping?

 

[rainerg]

Rainer, how do you trade sugar, I presume it's longer term, not scalping?

Hi, you can trade full futures contracts as a swing or position trade usually 2 -4 days or you can take smaller positions with less risk on a CFD.
I think, with fundamentals seemingly more and more irrelevant, it might be better to stick to forex but I think one needs to look at that also on the bit longer term. I feel it is all hard at the moment with so many things going on.
You haven't got far to Go!
Your appraisal of the current market would be appreciated
Cheers
Rainer

 

[meanreversion]

I trade breakouts and look for a larger move to develop, i.e. systematic trend following. What I've found with sugar in the last three months is there are some astonishing moves higher, but with some even more astonishing moves lower. The overall trend is clearly higher, but the moves now are much less smooth.. 20 to 30 was fairly clean but now it's all over the map.

 

[safvan]

Well I do not trade sugar at this time but just by looking at the price action of the monthly and the weekly chart there was an indication of a reversal just by looking at the candle sticks. Buying at all time highs until resistance is broken is dangerous regardless of the news (which is already factored in).

At this time its a sell until the next support comes into play..I would short till 30 and if it breaks below take it all the way to 25.

Just my unwanted two and half cents.

 

[BlackBison]

meanreversion is right- speaking from experience (mostly bad ones) be careful trading these wild commodities, especially on news, unless you really know what you are doing..

 

[meanreversion]

Commodities made my year in 2010. Gold and copper particular highlights. The only FX cross which was profitable for me was EUR/USD, a couple of nice big moves there.

Going forward, 10yr t-note is at a critical level, if you're looking to be short bonds that's not a bad place to start. As for commodities, there is some divergence now with copper making all time highs but gold looking subdued.

 

[rainerg]

Well I do not trade sugar at this time but just by looking at the price action of the monthly and the weekly chart there was an indication of a reversal just by looking at the candle sticks. Buying at all time highs until resistance is broken is dangerous regardless of the news (which is already factored in).

At this time its a sell until the next support comes into play..I would short till 30 and if it breaks below take it all the way to 25.

Just my unwanted two and half cents.

Appreciated! Thanks, You are dead right except nobody knew the size of the damage on reversal,
Cheers
Rainer

 

[LiveTradingZone]

I trade sugar every single day. It is one of my biggest money makers. I do love that market.

 

[rainerg]

I trade sugar every single day. It is one of my biggest money makers. I do love that market.

Hi, I would be interested as to what indicators you do use as sugar has been up and down a lot. I take it you are a day trader? Where are you located? I think we are a bit disadvantaged in that regard here in OZ.
cheers
Rainer

 

[LiveTradingZone]

Hi, I would be interested as to what indicators you do use as sugar has been up and down a lot. I take it you are a day trader? Where are you located? I think we are a bit disadvantaged in that regard here in OZ.
cheers
Rainer

I am a day trader and I use a combination of tick charts with trendlines, and a few technical indicators. But afterall it is what I do to make money, so I am not so willing to give out info on this thinner market on a public forum ha ha. If you want to see me trade it you can. My website is on my member profile. I don't think I am allowed to post it in this thread.