I would vote for Euro till the end of the year . I think this is technical because Germany wants a strong Euro and the US wanta to lower the value of the $ quietly. My bet would be on the Australian dollar .
Ps based on gut feeling . I will check some charts to see whats happening but i believe EUR/USD is politics and not money markets .
well here we are about halfway in the contest .....and we started polling a month into Q4 as well
so congrats to the AUD team (Captain currency) and the USD
dudes .....nice guys
but look at my Yen Horse.......look back at the first posts here and it was in the bottom position..... it was way way behind the pack and nowhere .....and I still backed it to win as the 8/1 outsider .....
even if you laid that bet now you would be in profit as Yen is the best performer in November so far creaming all currencies in its path ...and look at the bashing its given the euro on the chart below in November ......Yeoch
jees i'm good :innocent: .......but good enough to take the crown on 31/12 ?
time will tell....time will tell....for different reasons the AUD and the USD are going to be tough nuts to crack so I am already thinking second at best .......unless I have a lead into December .....hmmmmm :cheesy:
well i'm back in sunny England.......thanks again to the pilot who put us down safely last night in high winds and torrential rain (after leaving a perfect 25 degrees and sunny canaries)
Can someone please ask my wife why we are still continuing to live in this country ? (tee hee)
anyway I am unimpressed with my currency protege the Yen ....jees I leave for a few days of sun and tell Team Yen to just keep slowly moving up and it then proceeds to dump dump dump ......
the Yen is now some 7% off of the leader board of AUD,CHF and Euro
Now what would Mourhenio say to the seemingly defeated yen team with just about a month left ?
Well what about this
1) tell the Owners (Boj) to stop interefering and selling Stuff.....
2) Tell the Dow to fall now and reflect the fiscal cliff looming
3) and lets chuck a rock in AUD and EUR's next few games to get them off the Boil !
well Nov ends and heres a 1ma setting on my FXcorrelator MONTHLY.....X-men setting
Yen is being destroyed !
In truth I backed Yen to win the Q4 strongest currency competition........
I figured the Dow would cool and I was correct on that so far in Q4 Oct and Nov show falls.....
BUT........I never figured the yen would get so abused by the BoJ......so we see the unusual position of Dow falling and Yen falling.........
lets see if December fares better.....i will need more pressure on the Dow and that means 3 from 3 months in the Quarter........something that may not be possible unless the Fiscal cliff goes over the edge
well well well...we are in the final week of real action and then things will lock down
so what has happened in the last week or 2 ?
Well more woe from Japan (yellow x) ...........I hold my hand high as making a very risky play/call and having to now sit through the consequences and embarassment of actually having the WEAKEST currency in Q4 by a mile !....in fact the nearest currency (green USD) is still some 6-7% above Yens "Quartus Horriblus !"
hey it all fell apart after my call and if you follow forex you will know the scenario that actually made Yen THE sell in Q4 for most of the proceedings (hey I've been selling it mostly myself as well - but you know that if you read my thread !)
else where we see the dark blue x EURO leading the pack .............let me repeat that for those of you reading.......the EURO could win the strongest Currency in Q4 competion !
Jees i didnt see that coming .......the euro has taken nearly 10% off of the Yen in Q4...........10% !!!
and look at the Turquoise NZD.........this is the rank outsider.....came from nowhere and is in with a shout ........
I salute the members who tipped these guys ....if nothing else you will have made a lot of money chasing these and dumping the others
and the Green USD ?........struggling along behind the others .....another casualty of Global events in Q4.........but only 3-4% off the leading pack - unlike the Disasterous Yen !
so here we go......heads down to xmas and thanks to all for playing !