Strongest G8 Currency in Q4 ? - COMPETITION !

what will be the Strongest G8 Currency Q4 2012 ?


  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
so the big banks are calling the mighty Greenback ?

thats brave
N

(research thanks to Forest Gump)

From the table, it seems that most big banks think that the safe haven dollar will be the currency that will dominate Q4. For the European currencies, the dollar is expected to climb 0.008% versus the euro, 0.004% versus the pound, and 1.65% versus the franc.

Meanwhile, against the Japanese yen, the dollar is predicted to post a whopping 27.27% rise. The outlook for the major commodity-based currencies is also negative. All of them (the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and New Zealand dollar) are expected to fall lower from their current levels.

The forecasts are quite intriguing especially since the Fed is currently implementing an open-ended quantitative easing program. Moreover, the Fed has also indicated that they would probably keep rates at "exceptionally low" levels all the way until mid-2015. Normally, bond-buying activities of central banks and a loose monetary policy stance are considered bearish for the domestic currency.

Do the banks know something that we don't? Or do they think that the macroeconomic situation of other countries is worse than the U.S.? Or do they simply think that risk aversion will be the dominating market theme? Ah, these are questions that only they can answer.

Now, before I end this piece, let me just give out a few words of caution. One thing you should remember is that these forecasts are merely educated guesses, which means they will change as data changes.

In the forex market nothing is ever certain and even the most well-funded, smartest researchers in the world cannot accurately predict where price will be three months from now.

What this implies is that do not base your trades solely on the figures. Instead, use the forecasts as a guide to the big market players' sentiment to supplement to your own analysis.

That's it for today folks! Let's all hope for a good Q4 2012! Cheers!
 

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NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
thanks Cap...Aussie D eh ?............yep it could surprise us all (y)
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
hey all

with no US Equity market why not take a bet here and leave your thoughts !

N
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
keep em coming all......you sure about that USD ?

i'm happy with Yen ...just moving up above cad now and in 7th place .....I've told him I dont need him in the top 3 until December ;)

N
 

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NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
heres my gameplan......

this is the Weekly FXcorrelator...20ma default settings

Remember I am just talking here about my opinions and why I feel the Yen will be probably a buy
in Q4.....its not a trade call....

My Trades are made based on decisions made at that moment and with all dynamics and supporting evidence in place .....this is just fun !

I figure Q4 will be Generally a sub 13,000 experience for the Dow - and that means my USD and YEN team will rise up and hopefully win the Q4 race......

generally Yen has more pace and speed than USD so I am banking on that for it to beat its partner**...plus I figure USD will not be the 10000% safe haven we like until all the dust has cleared on the Election hangover and the Fiscal Cliff.....

now if that 13,000 resistance holds (Or the BOJ funpolice sell Yen) and I am proved wrong....then I'm eating humble pie for xmas dinner !

C'mon - please vote now....Cap's on board so looking for everyone to play !
N
 

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Jason Rogers

Senior member
2,772 93
Hey there T2W land !

heres a fun challenge to get us to Xmas ! :drunk:

Everyone is invited to play and the name of the game is calling the top gun currency for Q4 (1st October to end Dec 2012)

It will be judged using my FXCorrelator and can also be independently agreed (taking a lot longer though:whistling !) by looking at all the currency pairs to show the strongest Currency on 31/12/12

You can have up to 2 guesses gang if you want - or just the 1 if you are confident in your selection !

the Prize ?...........Respect .......:cool:

we have so many experts on T2W now it hurts ! .....so lets see who can REALLY call the shots and make money for people if they had been followed

If you want to say why please post freely - I dont care what you say .....but boy there could be some Lutz in january when we look back here !

so theres the challenge .........I want everyone on parade at T2W and lets have some fun ! :party:

in the next Post I will show you the runners and riders (jees I miss my horseracing days)

NVP

Hi N,

I see Q4 as transitionary. A lot of event risk to plow through:
US Election
US Debt Ceiling
US Fiscal Cliff
and now the economic impact of Hurricane Sandy

It appears that the worse case scenario is not being accounted for. Therefore, a potential for negative surprise exists. A negative surprise is likely to benefit the USDollar.

I do think there is the possibility of significant stimulus coming soon…perhaps after the election…perhaps after the markets roil for a bit.

Inflation from China and Australia is low. Stimulus tends to occur in low inflationary environments so the back drop is coming into focus. If stimulus happens (from US, China or possibly Europe), then reversing and selling the USD. If the stimulus comes from China, then I like buying AUD or NZD.

Jason
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
thanks Jason

October Closed below

Euro walked it
CHF 2nd (gasp !)
Yen was 4% off Euro at the back ........(thats my horse? :eek:)

c'mon all - vote vote vote ....dont stay part of the grey masses lurking on T2W

Hey it might get you out of that comfort zone finally - and towards the first steps needed to becoming a Trader ! (why are you here otherwise ?)

we dont bite ! ;)
N
 

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NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
Dear BoJ

leave my horse alone and let it roam free in Q4...sure I know you need to stimulate the Economy and Billions of Yen are on the line here, but I really need a winner badly at T2W ....so let it wait till 2013

thanks and love to all the gang
NVP
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
Interesting Psychology here !

Euro is ahead and we are already a 3rd into the race .........but still people refuse to acknowledge this as a potential winner of Q4

sound familiar all this year ?
N
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
another interesting reflection on this poll is that the USD is rarely the highest or lowest performer of the G8......sure it will present a bias over whatever period we chose but normally its not the biggest dog in the pack.....

the more recent prevelant outliers appear to be (monthly) AUD and Yen .....

heres the USD delivering just 1 outlier signal for a month in 18months !

N
 

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NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
Hello,

I selected Euro, What do you think about it ?.

Hey M

Given it won October comfortably I see it as a very good choice.....dont worry
to much about November as It will probably retrace a little.... ;)

N
 

NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
Hey all

heres Early November......CAD kicking Butt

and NZD showing well in second place (see next post for NZD)

C'mon vote Vote Vote - have some fun here with me

N
 

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NVP

Legendary member
37,760 2,100
heres the Position now for the Q4 race (Oct & Nov to date combined)

NZD to YEN gap is around 3%.....

Wow its tightening as the race settles down...Euro falls back into the pack after early front running ...now the NZD takes the lead after a nice opening November week .....

and Yen is well at the rear .....My horse ?

C'mon Yen ......anytime you want please ...dont make me wait till December dammit .....and dont give them all to much Gap ......

sure- I know you are fast in the sprints ....but dont give the leader more that 4-5% lead Pleeeease ....!!

N
 

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thunderstruck

Junior member
36 0
I would vote for Euro till the end of the year . I think this is technical because Germany wants a strong Euro and the US wanta to lower the value of the $ quietly. My bet would be on the Australian dollar .

Ps based on gut feeling . I will check some charts to see whats happening but i believe EUR/USD is politics and not money markets .
 
 
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