Turtle Forex
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The strength meter shows that this latest up move on the EUR/USD is more the USD selling off than money flowing into the EUR:
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Strong EUR or weak USD?
- Thread starter Turtle Forex
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You could be right there.
For us traders it doesn't really matter, we buy it on the way up and sell it on the way down....
wackypete2
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Turtle Forex
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Hi Guys...I really wasn't talking about todays "FOMC" move...I think that was priced in already..Money has been flowing out of USD and JPY since mid December. The commodity currencies are up because they are strong AND money is flowing out of USD and JPY....EUR is up for one reason...That was the point I was making
I'm new here...maybe this board is comprised of macro-economists...sorry about insulting your intelligence...hehehe
Oh, and I wanted to pimp my site....
I'm new here...maybe this board is comprised of macro-economists...sorry about insulting your intelligence...hehehe
Oh, and I wanted to pimp my site....
which is?
Turtle Forex
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I guess I should say the reason the EUR is up is NOT because of a demand for EUR.
I really don't care which way it goes as long as it goes somewhere..I'm curious by nature and like to have an idea of what the underlying reason for the move is...
I'd be careful being long EUR/USD if it gets to 1.3250..I think this move is more of a correction than a reversal...Just my opinion...
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Turtle Forex
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Money's been going into the higher yielding currencies for months. I think 1.0750 will be tested from what I can see with a boat load of USD bulls set to short at that level...Whether 0750 holds or not I can't say but I think that level will be tested...
To put it another way...I wont be shorting AUD any time soon...
To put it another way...I wont be shorting AUD any time soon...
Ok thanks Joe, I think it went up too quickly so it should pull back a bit but who knows? It will depend on what the EUR does
Martinghoul
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No, it wasn't...
Turtle Forex
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You mean it depends on what USD does, right?...
. I attached an 8 hour chart of my "Strength Meter" Its and indicator I built that compares the RS of each currency pair and averages them out then compares them to each other. ( I Can only use 6 colors so the NZD and CAD are represented by the thin green and thin blue lines).If you take a look you see in the last 24 hours that the USD and JPY (Red and Purple) have sold off and that the AUD, NZD and CHF have the stongest inflows. Notice the EUR remained flat and the GBP actually is selling off as well. Without looking at the chart (I just woke up) I'll but the EUR was up overnight against the USD and down against the AUD. My shorter term charts are showing me the AUD is pulling back a bit right now.
I use this "Meter" so that I can pair the strongest currency against the weakest. Its not some magical indicator, it just saves me from having to look at 26 different charts to see what's doing what. Basically the meter is saying sell USD (except maybe GBP/USD) and Buy AUD (I wouldnt buy AUD/CHF and I usually dont trade commodity currencies against each other)
You really think so? I think all we saw was a continuation of what has been happening...maybe some money was on the sidelines just making sure there were no suprises yesterday, but I think "no change" was priced in already...just my opinion...
Have a great day and Happy Trading!
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Martinghoul
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"No change"? What does "no change" have to do with anything? Nobody cares about the actual headline rate, 'cause there's zero uncertainty around that. What was unexpected is the longer guidance period and an extremely dovish tone. If everything were priced in, the Eurodollar contracts wouldn't have rallied as much as they did (nearly 20bps in the blues).
You have a g'day as well!
Turtle Forex
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You do make a valid point there. With a flip-flop fed and a media that tells us how we are supposed react to the news nothing that comes out of either of them surprise me.
I think we may see a correction from what I think was an overreaction but still look for USD weakness and AUD strength over the next couple days. Right now I personally wouldn't touch EUR/USD either way...this coming from a short term trader looking for 25-50 pip moves.
Have a great day!
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Turtle Forex
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BillV,
A little more insight into AUD/USD...just something to consider...I have a couple of AUD/USD daily charts, one showing the last 9 months and 1 showing the last 3 years.
The 3 year chart has my strength meter attached to it I went back and looked at what happened when the USD(red) and AUD(black) had a divergence of more than 25 and AUD was above 60 and USD was below 40, similar to what we have now.
Each time this occured up to April 2011 it was followed by a pullback of less than 500 pips before it resumed the uptrend it was in during this period.
However, when the AUD failed to make a new high, signaling a possible end to the trend, the next occurence resulted in a drop over over 1000 pips. Previous trendline support is also starting to look like it may be resistance now. There is also a little divergence in AUD strength from the high made on Jan 3 to this new high.
Just something to consider if were looking to test .0750....we got close....
A little more insight into AUD/USD...just something to consider...I have a couple of AUD/USD daily charts, one showing the last 9 months and 1 showing the last 3 years.
The 3 year chart has my strength meter attached to it I went back and looked at what happened when the USD(red) and AUD(black) had a divergence of more than 25 and AUD was above 60 and USD was below 40, similar to what we have now.
Each time this occured up to April 2011 it was followed by a pullback of less than 500 pips before it resumed the uptrend it was in during this period.
However, when the AUD failed to make a new high, signaling a possible end to the trend, the next occurence resulted in a drop over over 1000 pips. Previous trendline support is also starting to look like it may be resistance now. There is also a little divergence in AUD strength from the high made on Jan 3 to this new high.
Just something to consider if were looking to test .0750....we got close....
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Joe
What do you mean?
At some point of the last 3 year the AUD reached parity and the AUD/USD is now trading at around 1.06. Did your chart capture the reversal?
Turtle Forex
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Sorry...test of 1.0750..the 3 yr shows the move from about .6500 up through parity.
