My thoughts on USD Index / EUR/USD

Oct 24, 2018
Weekly close back below 1.15 is not too reassuring for the EUR/USD bulls, but I think knocking out the 1.15 barrier is still somewhat significant. EUR/USD never adjusted upward to the compression b/w German and US yields during the risk-off UST rally, so there is some room to move up towards 1.18 in the next week or two.

Medium-term, I don't buy into the narrative some are telling that this foretells some massive fall in the USD. Political and economic risks are still weighted against the EUR and GBP w/ hideous hard and soft data and Brexit looming. Despite the hysteria, most US data is still pretty strong- specifically surrounding the consumer, and longer-term rates and mortgages have already come down (benefiting the struggling housing market), so I don't see fed cuts or a major yield curve inversion on the medium-term horizon. Without them, there cannot be further rate differential compression, and there is still upside risk for the USD if sentiment turns on trade (or just the market's acceptance that we're not on the verge of the apocalypse).

Full write-up I did this week w/ analytics to support: