Especulador96
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Many investors seek to develop trading systems with a high win rate, mistakenly associating it with high profitability. However, high profitability is often achieved through greater exposure to market trends, which inevitably reduces the win rate, as it involves taking on greater risks and operating in more variable conditions.
The strategy I present below, which I named “Hosoda Clouds” in honor of Goichi Hosoda, creator of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, is probably one of the first profitable systems that many investors will discover. This system is designed to capture trends, so it works best in markets with clear directional movements. It is not suitable for markets like Forex, which are often characterized by sideways ranges rather than marked trends.
This system is not suitable for trading on low timeframes, due to the random and emotional nature of the movements in those timeframes. For a more detailed analysis on this topic, I recommend reading my article “The Timeframe Changes Everything”, where I delve deeper into the subject.
I recommend studying and applying the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy on assets with a clear trending nature and a solid performance history.
The ideal markets and assets include Tesla (1 hour, 4 hours, and daily), BTC/USDT (daily), SPY (daily), and XAU/USD (daily), as these have demonstrated consistent directional movements over time.
Tesla (1-Hour Chart) (TradingView)
Commissions and Setup
Commissions can be adjusted in the system's parameters according to the user's needs. To evaluate the effectiveness of the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy, I have used a standard of $1 per order as a reference and a margin per operation of $1000.
These values can be modified in the code settings to adapt to different brokers or preferences.
Other interesting values that should be taken into account when studying the code are the following:
•margin_long=0: This setting is ideal for strategies where a constant position size is desired, especially useful for manual entries or for tests with fixed capital.
•margin_long=100: Recommended for high-frequency systems, where positions are closed quickly. This option simulates gradual growth based on realized profits, reflecting broker restrictions in a real trading environment.
System Rules
The strategy is designed to capture large upward fluctuations in trending markets, using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The rules are as follows:
•Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the Tenkan-sen crosses upward the Kijun-sen below the Ichimoku cloud.
•Stop Loss (SL): It is placed at the low of the candle located 12 candles behind the entry candle. This value has shown an optimal balance in my tests, but it can be adjusted in the code.
•Take Profit (TP): The position is closed when the Tenkan-sen crosses downward the lower part of the cloud (the minimum between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B).
The results of considering short entries in this type of systems yielded negative results. I will address this topic in depth in upcoming editions.
System Performance
Tesla (H1)
Number of trades: 148
Win rate: 29.05%
January 2, 2014 - January 6, 2020: +172%
Simple annual growth: +34.3%
Number of trades: 130
Win rate: 30.77%
January 2, 2020 - September 24, 2025: +858.90%
Simple annual growth: +150.7%
Tesla (H4)
Number of trades: 102
Win rate: 32.35%
June 29, 2010 - September 24, 2025: +11,356.36%
Simple annual growth: +758.5%
Tesla (Daily)
Number of trades: 56
Win rate: 35.71%
June 29, 2010 - September 24, 2025: +3,166.64%
Simple annual growth: +211.46%
BTC/USDT (Daily)
Number of trades: 44
Win rate: 31.82%
September 30, 2017 - September 24, 2025: +2,592.23%
Simple annual growth: +324.8%
SPY (Daily)
Number of trades: 81
Win rate: 37.04%
January 23, 1993 - September 24, 2025: +476.90%
Simple annual growth: +14.3%
XAU/USD (Daily)
Number of trades: 216
Win rate: 32.87%
January 6, 1833 - September 24, 2025: +5,241.73%
Simple annual growth: +27.09%
S&P 500 (Daily)
Number of trades: 217
Win rate: 38.25%
February 1, 1871 - September 24, 2025: +16,791.02%
Simple annual growth: +108.1%
Conclusions
With the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy, I demonstrate the potential of Technical Analysis to generate consistent profits in trending markets, challenging the recent doubts of some investors and disseminators about the effectiveness of the craft.
My goal is for this system to not only be a practical tool for obtaining results, but also a source of inspiration for the creation of new strategies and methods.
The strategy I present below, which I named “Hosoda Clouds” in honor of Goichi Hosoda, creator of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, is probably one of the first profitable systems that many investors will discover. This system is designed to capture trends, so it works best in markets with clear directional movements. It is not suitable for markets like Forex, which are often characterized by sideways ranges rather than marked trends.
This system is not suitable for trading on low timeframes, due to the random and emotional nature of the movements in those timeframes. For a more detailed analysis on this topic, I recommend reading my article “The Timeframe Changes Everything”, where I delve deeper into the subject.
I recommend studying and applying the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy on assets with a clear trending nature and a solid performance history.
The ideal markets and assets include Tesla (1 hour, 4 hours, and daily), BTC/USDT (daily), SPY (daily), and XAU/USD (daily), as these have demonstrated consistent directional movements over time.
Tesla (1-Hour Chart) (TradingView)
Commissions and Setup
Commissions can be adjusted in the system's parameters according to the user's needs. To evaluate the effectiveness of the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy, I have used a standard of $1 per order as a reference and a margin per operation of $1000.
These values can be modified in the code settings to adapt to different brokers or preferences.
Other interesting values that should be taken into account when studying the code are the following:
•margin_long=0: This setting is ideal for strategies where a constant position size is desired, especially useful for manual entries or for tests with fixed capital.
•margin_long=100: Recommended for high-frequency systems, where positions are closed quickly. This option simulates gradual growth based on realized profits, reflecting broker restrictions in a real trading environment.
System Rules
The strategy is designed to capture large upward fluctuations in trending markets, using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator. The rules are as follows:
•Long Entry: A long position is triggered when the Tenkan-sen crosses upward the Kijun-sen below the Ichimoku cloud.
•Stop Loss (SL): It is placed at the low of the candle located 12 candles behind the entry candle. This value has shown an optimal balance in my tests, but it can be adjusted in the code.
•Take Profit (TP): The position is closed when the Tenkan-sen crosses downward the lower part of the cloud (the minimum between Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B).
The results of considering short entries in this type of systems yielded negative results. I will address this topic in depth in upcoming editions.
System Performance
Tesla (H1)
Number of trades: 148
Win rate: 29.05%
January 2, 2014 - January 6, 2020: +172%
Simple annual growth: +34.3%
Number of trades: 130
Win rate: 30.77%
January 2, 2020 - September 24, 2025: +858.90%
Simple annual growth: +150.7%
Tesla (H4)
Number of trades: 102
Win rate: 32.35%
June 29, 2010 - September 24, 2025: +11,356.36%
Simple annual growth: +758.5%
Tesla (Daily)
Number of trades: 56
Win rate: 35.71%
June 29, 2010 - September 24, 2025: +3,166.64%
Simple annual growth: +211.46%
BTC/USDT (Daily)
Number of trades: 44
Win rate: 31.82%
September 30, 2017 - September 24, 2025: +2,592.23%
Simple annual growth: +324.8%
SPY (Daily)
Number of trades: 81
Win rate: 37.04%
January 23, 1993 - September 24, 2025: +476.90%
Simple annual growth: +14.3%
XAU/USD (Daily)
Number of trades: 216
Win rate: 32.87%
January 6, 1833 - September 24, 2025: +5,241.73%
Simple annual growth: +27.09%
S&P 500 (Daily)
Number of trades: 217
Win rate: 38.25%
February 1, 1871 - September 24, 2025: +16,791.02%
Simple annual growth: +108.1%
Conclusions
With the “Hosoda Clouds” strategy, I demonstrate the potential of Technical Analysis to generate consistent profits in trending markets, challenging the recent doubts of some investors and disseminators about the effectiveness of the craft.
My goal is for this system to not only be a practical tool for obtaining results, but also a source of inspiration for the creation of new strategies and methods.
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