Stock Market Top?

[Jason Rogers]

Does anyone believe in the power of magazine covers to pick the top in markets? Reason I ask is due to the cover of the Economist this week titled "Asia's Astonishing Rebound".

Seems as though magazines and the media tend to focus on market events when it's reached the peak, and they've noticed 90%+ return in Asian markets this year. I can remember times when The Economist ran headline stories on the falling dollar and oil prices which marked the bottom. Anyone thinking the same?

 

[Jason Rogers]

Another 4.3% drop in Shanghai Composite Index overnight....

 

[cuotes]

Blue line Hong Kong HangSheng
Red line SP 500

 

[Jason Rogers]

Blue line Hong Kong HangSheng
Red line SP 500

Thanks for sharing! A very telling picture of where the recovery is taking place. We may see Asia become the dominant force in global growth and pull the US out of recession maybe?

 

[cuotes]

I'm not an expert... but i don't trust China.

China is like a world apart, infinitely more complex than our.
The society is totally different and government seems to control every aspect of the life.
An eventual revolution is a must.

Millions of citizens play in the stock exchange as another casino. Not investing, just gambling. Macao is about to be the biggest gambling center of the world, bigger than Las Vegas.

Remember the little crash of 27th february 2007. It begun in China and affected all the world. I lost money. Causes? Millions and millions of people went in panic and began to sell.

They have no control quality. Their cars can't be sell in europe because of that. And energy consume will be controled by government as well as currency.

China a dominant force?
Maybe one day, but many things have to change. They have to evolve.

China a main source of problems?
No doubt.

 

[Jason Rogers]

I'm not an expert... but i don't trust China.

China is like a world apart, infinitely more complex than our.
The society is totally different and government seems to control every aspect of the life.
An eventual revolution is a must.

Millions of citizens play in the stock exchange as another casino. Not investing, just gambling. Macao is about to be the biggest gambling center of the world, bigger than Las Vegas.

Remember the little crash of 27th february 2007. It begun in China and affected all the world. I lost money. Causes? Millions and millions of people went in panic and began to sell.

They have no control quality. Their cars can't be sell in europe because of that. And energy consume will be controled by government as well as currency.

China a dominant force?
Maybe one day, but many things have to change. They have to evolve.

China a main source of problems?
No doubt.

I believe they will evolve to become a dominant force but it won't happen overnight. Just the amount of progress made over the past 20 years is substantial in my view.

Article by Stephen Roach on Chinese growth this year. http://www.morganstanley.com/views/perspectives/files/RoachChinaPiece.pdf Maybe China is the next bubble in the making

 

[cuotes]

Maybe China is the next bubble in the making

It's more likely to be a bubble than a fact
But who knows.

I'll read that link, thanks

 

[Jason Rogers]

It's more likely to be a bubble than a fact
But who knows.

I'll read that link, thanks

A word of caution, Stephen Roach is the eternal pessimist. I remember him giving warnings about impending doom for yearsss before the eventual housing bubble. I guess if you make enough predictions one is bound to come true eventually.

China Construction Bank is talking about bubbles growing in the capital markets and the government is talking about raising capital requirements.

 

[Jason Rogers]

Well the top lasted for 12 days before continuing the uptrend. Should know better than to try calling tops

We've pushed through the 50% retracement on the Hang Seng. Next resistance is 23,375 which would mean another 7.6% higher from where we are now.