Sterling 2017

[forker]

Here we go again...

This time we have complications in the mix with brexit but nonetheless we have a developing framework for rate increases with inflation forecast to be 2.7% by the end of 2017. The data in the uk has shown to be resilient and we have seen a huge depreciation in sterling which opens up opportunity. As ever timing is going to need to be ballpark but doesn't need to be precise and pairing this trade (long sterling) is going to be key to avoid high rollover costs on holding time. I have yet to do analysis on pairing but will do that over the course of this month. So here is a heads up for another long term trade in planning.

 

[Chalky_trader]

Here we go again...

This time we have complications in the mix with brexit but nonetheless we have a developing framework for rate increases with inflation forecast to be 2.7% by the end of 2017. The data in the uk has shown to be resilient and we have seen a huge depreciation in sterling which opens up opportunity. As ever timing is going to need to be ballpark but doesn't need to be precise and pairing this trade (long sterling) is going to be key to avoid high rollover costs on holding time. I have yet to do analysis on pairing but will do that over the course of this month. So here is a heads up for another long term trade in planning.

i hope you are right, Looking at GBP/USD is depressing

needs to clear 1.28 on that pair to have based out i would have thought.

Donald Trump effect could well shake things up towards the end of the month!

 

[NVP]

Here we go again...

This time we have complications in the mix with brexit but nonetheless we have a developing framework for rate increases with inflation forecast to be 2.7% by the end of 2017. The data in the uk has shown to be resilient and we have seen a huge depreciation in sterling which opens up opportunity. As ever timing is going to need to be ballpark but doesn't need to be precise and pairing this trade (long sterling) is going to be key to avoid high rollover costs on holding time. I have yet to do analysis on pairing but will do that over the course of this month. So here is a heads up for another long term trade in planning.

I think we will have a mixed bag in 2017 for GBP ........i'll certainly go bull when i feel it merits buying ..........last month or so is not the time yet though......:whistling

N

 

[Atilla]

I think we will have a mixed bag in 2017 for GBP ........i'll certainly go bull when i feel it merits buying ..........last month or so is not the time yet though......:whistling

N

Looks like you're quite an emotional trader


:cheesy:



PS you could put that chart in the ART thread too imo.

 

[tar]

1.15

 

[forker]

1.15

That's against? € or $

 

[Atilla]

Sterling and Euro's fate linked to Brexit.

1.15 is very pessimistic so I'm guessing ($) that's a hard Brexit.

I can't see a hard Brexit serving neither UK or EU and sense (money) should prevail over emotions. One hopes at least anyhow. :whistling


I'd hazard a guess with

1.18
1.20
1.22 as major three levels of support for now.

1.15 is nightmare-ish...

 

[tar]

Aside from Brexit .. etc , a strong dollar and a weak Euro will take cable down few % easily , 1.15 isnt that far , i expect it to fluctuate in the teens and 20s .

 

[forker]

Dollar strength is Overrated

 

[Atilla]

Dollar strength is Overrated

Not if Trump makes USA great again :whistling


Agree it could take time. Their BoP defecits widening too so can't help sell their goods coupled with rising home produced costs. But who can say???

 

[forker]

He will have to magic up better numbers consistently going forward. A big feat even for a billionaire

 

[kalott]

long term

 

[forker]

long term

So yours is parity. You have any trades planned?

 

[gerryg]

1.15

Same here... its pressure from Brexit, although I still can't determine is it uncertainty or really adverse effects on the economy looming after breakup??
Any opinions?

 

[forker]

Same here... its pressure from Brexit, although I still can't determine is it uncertainty or really adverse effects on the economy looming after breakup??
Any opinions?

It's all speculation at this point. UK is still in the EU and growing well making the valuation as it stands heavily deviated from where it should be.

 

[counter_violent]

It's all speculation at this point. UK is still in the EU and growing well making the valuation as it stands heavily deviated from where it should be.

Sure but this was my point on the EURUSD thread, fear and greed trump even the fundamentals some of the time. Irrational markets.

 

[forker]

Sure but this was my point on the EURUSD thread, fear and greed trump even the fundamentals some of the time. Irrational markets.

Sure but these are never lasting influences.

 

[counter_violent]

Sure but these are never lasting influences.

Yep sure, and my comments are not directed at traders who know what they are doing. More directed at those who don't understand and run out of money before the penny drops.

 

[Atilla]

Markets always calculate forward potential earning and factor into current prices.

Markets could be wrong I guess. It's full of experts init?

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Hello Forker, saw this thread and thought i would share the charting i have been doing for a group of swedes, cant say more than that but can share chart progress as have no NDA.
They have asked the big question ( brexiit- soft or hard -- cut now or hold. so far ive helped them get out of some holdings at 11,70, but the crystal ball that was once shouting the obvious is now somewhat translucent. Any opinions would be good. Also attached Eur /gbp wyckoff schematic for Eur gbp if that helps anyone. Happy for the resident Wyckoff expert to tear it apart constructively if needs be.
Also included a pic of Dwayne Dibley