Statistical Project

[EcceHomo]

Dear all,

I have a small statistical project for my Intro to Statistics class. And I have decided to choose to interpret and compare markets in ex-Yugoslavia (Eastern Europe). That means market of Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro. Maybe this is not the best solution but now it is too late and I need to make something. All the relevant statistics I have found on the web sites of above mentioned stock markets. Now I want to see which statistical methods could I apply? I am not sure that many of them would have sense in the stock market. But anyway I was thinking to apply correlation. I think that could be done. Maybe I could make regression model. Or I could do hypothesis testing (H0: Market 1 is equal to Market 2; Ha: Market 1 is weaker < than Market 2; and than I could test a P, if it is small or high- and reject or accept the null hypothesis). I am not sure that this has a sense. But I need to show the knowledge, of applying methods to professor. I was also thinking to apply Chi square test or make a regression model, but I am also not sure if it could be applicable in this case. Anyway if there is somebody who knows some statistics, please tell me what could I do and how could I do it? I am using PH-stats (Microsoft excel macro ad) for statistical software.

I have following statistical data:
Ordinary Turnover,
Block Trading
Takeovers Reported to Stock Exchange
Stock Exchange Index of the RS (BIRS)
Ordinary Turnover
Market Capitalization


Thank you on your help!

Ecce Homo

 

[Atilla]

Dear all,

I have a small statistical project for my Intro to Statistics class. And I have decided to choose to interpret and compare markets in ex-Yugoslavia (Eastern Europe). That means market of Bosnia, Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro. Maybe this is not the best solution but now it is too late and I need to make something. All the relevant statistics I have found on the web sites of above mentioned stock markets. Now I want to see which statistical methods could I apply? I am not sure that many of them would have sense in the stock market. But anyway I was thinking to apply correlation. I think that could be done. Maybe I could make regression model. Or I could do hypothesis testing (H0: Market 1 is equal to Market 2; Ha: Market 1 is weaker < than Market 2; and than I could test a P, if it is small or high- and reject or accept the null hypothesis). I am not sure that this has a sense. But I need to show the knowledge, of applying methods to professor. I was also thinking to apply Chi square test or make a regression model, but I am also not sure if it could be applicable in this case. Anyway if there is somebody who knows some statistics, please tell me what could I do and how could I do it? I am using PH-stats (Microsoft excel macro ad) for statistical software.

I have following statistical data:
Ordinary Turnover,
Block Trading
Takeovers Reported to Stock Exchange
Stock Exchange Index of the RS (BIRS)
Ordinary Turnover
Market Capitalization


Thank you on your help!

Ecce Homo

I'm a little confused by what you are trying to do but here is my understanding or guidance to you.

1. You need to define your area of study first. Compare 4 markets of former Yugoslavia ?
a. Bosnia
b. Croatia
c. Serbia
d. Montenegro

2. Compare with what?

3. Do you mean against each other?

4. Then ask your self what are you compaaring?

a. Ordinary Turnover,
b. Block Trading
c. Takeovers Reported to Stock Exchange
d. Stock Exchange Index of the RS (BIRS)
e. Ordinary Turnover
f. Market Capitalization

Having studied your 4 markets with your 6 parameters you need to explain your observations and whether there is a positive or negative correlation?

You say you want to do hypothesis testing. Well what is it you are testing do you know? You can't test for something that you don't know?

If you want to ask a question these four markets depend on each other than test for that. But the problem you have is that all markets are related especially today in the international global village we live in. To prove your point you should also test and compare agains external markets like perhaps Australia, Brazil or Peru where you would not expect any correlation to see whether it's geographical or purely international etc etc.

You need to narrow your field and understand your question first. You are spread too far and wide apart to have any clear direction.

Ask one small significant question and test for that.

1. Croatia more closely linked to German / European economies
2. Bosnia more closely linked to Turkish / Eastern economies / markets
3. Serbia more closely linked to Russia and baltic countries
4. Montenegro more closely linked to - that's a tough one

Also you seem to be missing some important significant data like GDP, Expenditure & Income as well as popullation and land size.

In a nut shell narrow your question and make clear and decisive point.

Good luck.

 

[EcceHomo]

Thank you for your response and clarification.
My main goal is to see which market is stronger. Also to see do they affect each other.
These data that you have mentioned (“1.Croatia more closely linked to German / European economies2. Bosnia more closely linked to Turkish / Eastern economies / markets 3. Serbia more closely linked to Russia and Baltic countries 4. Montenegro more closely linked to - that's a tough one. Also you seem to be missing some important significant data like GDP, Expenditure & Income as well as population and land size.”)
I know that they are all economic indicators but how could I implement them in the project by using statistics. All these countries border to each other and I am not sure that they should be linked with 4 totally different regions.

Also GDP, Expenditure & Income as well as population and land size- how could I link them. I mean I know that I can, but how can I do it (which test) and what will I do with this data. I mean it will have significance but how could I than implant further, to further testing?

Thanks again!
Ecce Homo

 

[Atilla]

Thank you for your response and clarification.
My main goal is to see which market is stronger. Also to see do they affect each other.
These data that you have mentioned (“1.Croatia more closely linked to German / European economies2. Bosnia more closely linked to Turkish / Eastern economies / markets 3. Serbia more closely linked to Russia and Baltic countries 4. Montenegro more closely linked to - that's a tough one. Also you seem to be missing some important significant data like GDP, Expenditure & Income as well as population and land size.”)
I know that they are all economic indicators but how could I implement them in the project by using statistics. All these countries border to each other and I am not sure that they should be linked with 4 totally different regions.

Also GDP, Expenditure & Income as well as population and land size- how could I link them. I mean I know that I can, but how can I do it (which test) and what will I do with this data. I mean it will have significance but how could I than implant further, to further testing?

Thanks again!
Ecce Homo

First only pick one small question. Not four. I was only suggesting ideas and giving guidance.

Get some stats over a period of years and see what the charts show you. Is it a negative or positive correlation?

Without narrowing down your question or research field you will not be able to test or prove anything successfuly.

If these countries have stock markets than you might be able to use stock market indexes, interest rates and currencies perhaps.

Before you start you MUST narrow you field and ask one simple question to test.

Then we'll consider which parameters and data you need to collect.