Spreadbetting Update

  • Thread starter Carnivore
  • Start date
  • Watchers 9

iq200

Well-known member
368 23
JonnyT, Have you just visually concluded that or have you
coded the strategy and actually backtested it?

Regards,

Imran
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
Hi Imran,

It's easy to backtest as there are only around 6 signals per market per year.

My results were done manually and were very very impressive for this market. Something like a 1000 points per year...

JonnyT
 
C

Carnivore

0 0
Hi Del,

the manual is around 140 pages and does spend a lot pages on money mgmt and pyramiding. I agree with JohnnyT that it is easy to 'see' the backtesting results and big profits available on any market within a few moments because there are only a few trades in each market each year.

Support continues to be good from the author. Always returns emails promptly and adds value in other ways also.
 

cassiopeia

Active member
138 3
<i>the more people that use the same system, the more likely it will work</i>

I know what you mean reactor, perhaps in the short term, but what happens when others try to take advantage of the people using it? For example forcing the price of a security below a stop when it is known many must have set that stop. Ultimately any highly specific, publicised and well used system must eventually be doomed to failure. I am thinking of Turtle trading specifically.

Perhaps these systems are useful providing your use your own variation of them, however, then it simply reduces to another form of money management.
 

ianp

Active member
179 7
Hi,Carnvore / JonnyT

what was the the drawdown like in backtesting ?

ianp
 
C

Carnivore

0 0
Ianp,

on any given single market it varies but is seldom more than 5%. Across a broad range of markets it was quite a bit higher but not more than 20% in the markets that I looked at. I have had to test manually but it reaffirmed my initial thoughts that the information supplied makes sense and more importantly makes profits!
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
The system uses Elders risk of no more than 2% of equity per trade.

Therefor if the system does indeed work well the drawdowns per market will be low.

I should state that this like any EOD system designed to capture large trends does need some serious cash to do it properly.

Buy the course, it's well worth it IMHO.

JonnyT
 

darrenf

Well-known member
481 3
Carnivor (plus JonnyT and Trader333 as you also seem to have purchased the spread trading secrets book).

I am considering buying this myself as it would appear to offer a complete strategy to longer term trading which is what I am after. Or at least, a very solid starting point from which to develop my own personal system over time.

However, I bought the Vince Stanzione workbook a year or so ago which seemed to promise the same thing, had a very similar sales pitch (almost uncannily), cost much more and was dissapointing.

From what I have read, this seems to offer specific methods for a complete strategy. ie exit/entry/stop loss and majoring on money management. Can you confirm if this is the case and if you would recommend it.

If so, I'll let the moths out of my wallet and buy it!

Cheers
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
Some Backtesting

Hi folks,

Here are the trades carried out by the system on the Dow since 1998.

The results are not as good as I hoped.

Short 01/09/1998 -355.454239
Short 15/01/1998 -112.0784768
Long 02/02/1998 726.85794
Short 06/04/1998 -148.5590368
Short 06/11/1998 -199.7096252
Long 07/08/1998 -155.2031398
Short 08/03/1998 1034.660294
Short 09/09/1998 -428.4328007
Long 16/10/1998 4061.212009
Short 22/09/1999 -36.75143425
Long 11/12/1999 142.51446
Short 25/01/2000 -185.1665208
Long 23/03/2000 -398.4150397
Short 05/10/2000 -344.1697677
Short 23/05/2000 -301.6649438
Short 16/06/2000 -306.312035
Long 08/04/2000 -39.1438475
Short 26/09/2000 -342.9601697
Long 12/05/2000 -325.8368458
Short 20/12/2000 -411.5533731
Long 28/12/2000 -393.6040643
Short 28/02/2001 -405.9999966
Short 03/12/2001 -224.4751247
Short 28/03/2001 -435.0208122
Long 18/04/2001 -99.3008565
Short 27/06/2001 2980.536725
Short 10/01/2001 -332.5978389
Long 11/06/2001 -620.8864007
Short 30/01/2002 -248.6689613
Long 26/02/2002 -23.313618
Short 22/04/2002 -207.8421658
Short 29/05/2002 3338.869443
Short 25/07/2002 -379.4692993
Short 08/05/2002 -366.5108032
Short 18/09/2002 -160.935149
Long 11/01/2002 -188.7386163
Short 30/12/2002 -205.4562225
Long 01/06/2003 -211.7636716
Short 22/01/2003 137.5749892
Long 18/03/2003 -158.8629837
Long 04/02/2003 1335.603529 Ongoing

Total 5358.425747

This doesn't allow for commissions/spreads slippage.

It shows the system is profitable (not as much as I would like!)but could you trade it? You would need £30000 equity per pound per point following the rules of 2% max loss per trade.

However it is designed to be used over a basket of futures and might have better performance elsewhere.

JonnyT
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,658 984
JonnyT,

In my view it was not designed for index futures trading but more along the lines of commodities and currencies which are known to trend better.


Paul
 

JonnyT

Senior member
2,560 22
Anyone got any continuous contract data and I'll run it through my backtest engine?

I thought indices trend pretty damned well...

JonnyT
 
 
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