spreadbetting the dow strategy

[jayjay121]

hi all,

following on from grey's webinar I was wondering if the following strategy could work in spreadbetting the cash dow. I'm going to open a IB account too and learn to trade grey's swing and day trading methods but i got thinking of a way to swing trade the cash dow for 1-3 days also, anyway let me know if this is gonna be viable or not please as you all have more knowledge than me and the advantage of this strategy is that it is of course 'tax free'.......This strategy will be using the rolling cash bet by the way...............Also going by grey's 'bear' stance at the moment we are only looking to short the market.

1.Have 4 dow charts open, a 10min, 5min, 1min and 'daily' indu charts all with the
macci 5,6 or cci 6(if not got the macci).
2.When 10min dow chart is overbought and daily dow chart at the same time is
overbought, go short.........also use 5min and 1min for fine tuning if you wish but
not vital as frank said in the webinar.
3.Exit when 'daily' dow indu chart is oversold


so would this work?, basically market is still first like grey says, we still have the fundamentals on our side (short) thanks to grey, the only thing that we are changing is we are not using a stock, we are using the dow again aginst its self and not really diversifiying, anyway this is a tax free investment so maybe this could make up for the extra bit of risk we are taking.


anyway would this be viable and would it work?


jason

 

[jayjay121]

also on my daily dow chart at the moment it is in overbought territory..........interesting, im hoping it starts turning just in time for thursday as im likely to take a short position that day.

Is everyone else's daily macci in overbought territory +100?, im using cc1 6 and it's currently at 115.38 but im using IT Finance charts, does this matter or should i use tradestation charts?.

im very tempted to take a short position on the dow now, but i must stick to the rules and wait for the turn, also we are probably very much non techical from my understand until the news is out in the open.

jason

 

[Trader333]

In my view this strategy cannot be anywhere near as successful as the way that it was originally intended for use with stocks. The key reason being that INDU cannot be weak (or strong) relative to itself. The whole reason why this works with stocks is because you are loading weakness (or strength) relative to the index in your favour. You are also trading a basket of instruments some of which will not do as expected but they will be overshadowed by those that do. As such you have a bias that is hugely to your advantage and that is not possible with a single instrument in the same way. I am sure the idea has merit but I would be surprised if it yields success at the same level as using it in its original intended way.


Paul

 

[jayjay121]

In my view this strategy cannot be anywhere near as successful as the way that it was originally intended for use with stocks. The key reason being that INDU cannot be weak (or strong) relative to itself. The whole reason why this works with stocks is because you are loading weakness (or strength) relative to the index in your favour. You are also trading a basket of instruments some of which will not do as expected but they will be overshadowed by those that do. As such you have a bias that is hugely to your advantage and that is not possible with a single instrument in the same way. I am sure the idea has merit but I would be surprised if it yields success at the same level as using it in its original intended way.


Paul

thanks paul,

i too had the same concerns.............. I thought of it as grey does mention somewhere that he believes spreadbetting the cash dow could yield some good profits this year.



jason



jason

 

[Grey1]

In my view this strategy cannot be anywhere near as successful as the way that it was originally intended for use with stocks. The key reason being that INDU cannot be weak (or strong) relative to itself. The whole reason why this works with stocks is because you are loading weakness (or strength) relative to the index in your favour. You are also trading a basket of instruments some of which will not do as expected but they will be overshadowed by those that do. As such you have a bias that is hugely to your advantage and that is not possible with a single instrument in the same way. I am sure the idea has merit but I would be surprised if it yields success at the same level as using it in its original intended way.


Paul

Paul is correct,, SB trading is not as good as IB but i do it for TAX reasons and TAX reasons only ,,, SB is very very difficult for new bies. really difficult in fact it is a mission impossible

This is my today's SB trades,, I shorted the market right at the begining and longed it on reversal so as youi can see up around £2500 for the day after all costssssssss

I insist traders not to SB trade if they can avoid it unless u are good at TA and trading in genral.

We traded ANR to day with 1 $ run and also few more scalp all wins ,, much much easier than SB trading


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

Paul is correct,, SB trading is not as good as IB but i do it for TAX reasons and TAX reasons only ,,, SB is very very difficult for new bies. really difficult in fact it is a mission impossible

This is my today's SB trades,, I shorted the market right at the begining and longed it on reversal so as youi can see up around £2500 for the day after all costssssssss

I insist traders not to SB trade if they can avoid it unless u are good at TA and trading in genral.

We traded ANR to day with 1 $ run and also few more scalp all wins ,, much much easier than SB trading


Grey1

oopssssss the trades

 

[Grey1]

oopssssss the trades

By looking at the entry times above you can see I went short when market cycle had come to end ,,, if you decided to SB Trade then use the exhaustion engine code which is available on this BB,, The signals are Technical enough to give you that edge provided you realise that MARKET MOVES BASED ON DAILY CATALYSTS AS WELL AS TECHNICAL ,, You must accept and remember this ,, so if you got couple of daft signals then don't throw the strategy out that IT DOES NOT WORK lol


Grey1

 

[Trader333]

Grey1,

Do you mind me asking which SB company you use ?


Paul

 

[Grey1]

Grey1,

Do you mind me asking which SB company you use ?


Paul

CMC

grey1

 

[Trader333]

Thank you


Paul

 

[jayjay121]

grey,

Thanks for posting your trades, i've checked the times of these trades and yes it does appear to follow my 10 min cci 6, so i think you must be watching your 10min chart at least................interesting how you start with one trade at £10 a point then increase to £30 a point at times, .............anyway thankyou and could you tell me what else you are using when SB, im gonna try your exhaustion code. Is there anything else?, like are you using a 'daily' indu chart and 10 min chart as i mentioned above?


jason

 

[brutusdog]

grey,

Thanks for posting your trades, i've checked the times of these trades and yes it does appear to follow my 10 min cci 6, so i think you must be watching your 10min chart at least................interesting how you start with one trade at £10 a point then increase to £30 a point at times, .............anyway thankyou and could you tell me what else you are using when SB, im gonna try your exhaustion code. Is there anything else?, like are you using a 'daily' indu chart and 10 min chart as i mentioned above?


jason

if you are serious about this you need cci 6 with a 5 sma and not alot else.

read the cycles and trend thread which explains in depth the concept of finding the node.

as said before the 10 min chart is the lead.

if you annotate a chart with Grey's entrys you can see all that is required to implement this. (entrys can be seen to the min from the screen shot)

the point he makes about the factors that move the market is paramount imo. some days (those that are news driven) will not work due to the fact that all tecnicals go out the window and the market is operating differently. this is why you need cnbc and some logic, avoid the dodgy times around news that will throw everything out.

Iraj, a question if you get the time...i notice there were two other possible oppertuintys to trade the turn in the 10 min. did you leave these due to time of day or was there another reason?

THANKS

aj.

 

[Grey1]

if you are serious about this you need cci 6 with a 5 sma and not alot else.

read the cycles and trend thread which explains in depth the concept of finding the node.

as said before the 10 min chart is the lead.

if you annotate a chart with Grey's entrys you can see all that is required to implement this. (entrys can be seen to the min from the screen shot)

the point he makes about the factors that move the market is paramount imo. some days (those that are news driven) will not work due to the fact that all tecnicals go out the window and the market is operating differently. this is why you need cnbc and some logic, avoid the dodgy times around news that will throw everything out.

Iraj, a question if you get the time...i notice there were two other possible oppertuintys to trade the turn in the 10 min. did you leave these due to time of day or was there another reason?

THANKS

aj.

A very a clear and informative post buddy ,, Well done,

There was few other opportunties but I was in the middle of managing 3 trades ( AAPL, EMKR ,ANR ) so I could not handle it .

What you wrote above was SPOT ON ,,


Grey1

 

[Grey1]

grey,

Thanks for posting your trades, i've checked the times of these trades and yes it does appear to follow my 10 min cci 6, so i think you must be watching your 10min chart at least................interesting how you start with one trade at £10 a point then increase to £30 a point at times, .............anyway thankyou and could you tell me what else you are using when SB, im gonna try your exhaustion code. Is there anything else?, like are you using a 'daily' indu chart and 10 min chart as i mentioned above?


jason

I am using what I have explained before as STRATEGY 3 which if you do a search you can find all about it. Poeple have a habit of using a strategy for couple of days and then walk away from it because as they put it "" IT DOES NOT WORK " lol

The reward for those who insist on getting to the bottom of this game is huge ,,, DONOT GIVE UP ,,


Grey1

 

[jayjay121]

I am using what I have explained before as STRATEGY 3 which if you do a search you can find all about it. Poeple have a habit of using a strategy for couple of days and then walk away from it because as they put it "" IT DOES NOT WORK " lol

The reward for those who insist on getting to the bottom of this game is huge ,,, DONOT GIVE UP ,,


Grey1

ok yes i know all about strategy 3 and this is what im basing this spreadbetting strategy on just without the stocks..................just wanted to know if it can be done and from the sounds of it yes it can................i have cnbc on about 1pm but my question to you is this.....can can we forsee the day being a non techical day?.......is there anyway to predict this before we start using techinal analysis which of course will be no good on a non techical day?.............how do you personally predict whether its non techical or not?, just watching cnbc to see if market is gonna be news driven?, is this how you do it?, as there is news out everyday almost it seems so from what your saying there will be alot of non techical days but i need to know how i can foresee this, is there a difference between indu news like feds and individual stock news like earnings?.............can you help?


jason

 

[Grey1]

ok yes i know all about strategy 3 and this is what im basing this spreadbetting strategy on just without the stocks..................just wanted to know if it can be done and from the sounds of it yes it can................i have cnbc on about 1pm but my question to you is this.....can can we forsee the day being a non techical day?.......is there anyway to predict this before we start using techinal analysis which of course will be no good on a non techical day?.............how do you personally predict whether its non techical or not?, just watching cnbc to see if market is gonna be news driven?, is this how you do it?, as there is news out everyday almost it seems so from what your saying there will be alot of non techical days but i need to know how i can foresee this, is there a difference between indu news like feds and individual stock news like earnings?.............can you help?


jason

FED announcement , Earning reports of big cap stocks such as IBM,INTC, WALLMART are good enough to turn the table around from a techncial day to non technical day ..
That is all I can say at this stage as it is heuristic ( rule of thumb ) and you have to learn this ,, Most days the market is techncial

Grey1

 

[jayjay121]

FED announcement , Earning reports of big cap stocks such as IBM,INTC, WALLMART are good enough to turn the table around from a techncial day to non technical day ..
That is all I can say at this stage as it is heuristic ( rule of thumb ) and you have to learn this ,, Most days the market is techncial

Grey1

thank you very much ill bear this in mind from now on.......................well the fed cut rates as predicted and market is heading north which of course is good news for us..................... what do we do now?, wait till the sell off tonight? or just wait until tommorrow to give enough room for it to settle down to technical again? Looking at my cci 6 it is nicely overbought and im very tempted to short it soon for a long term swing trade


jason

 

[brutusdog]

thank you very much ill bear this in mind from now on.......................well the fed cut rates as predicted and market is heading north which of course is good news for us..................... what do we do now?, wait till the sell off tonight? or just wait until tommorrow to give enough room for it to settle down to technical again? Looking at my cci 6 it is nicely overbought and im very tempted to short it soon for a long term swing trade


jason

the cci 6 is to fast and needs smoothing.
multiple time frames are essential 10, 5 and 1min.
you cannot do a jigsaw without the pieces.

remember Iraj has said many times perfect entry.....
note the down turn from just after 8 pm tonight.

 

[Grey1]

thank you very much ill bear this in mind from now on.......................well the fed cut rates as predicted and market is heading north which of course is good news for us..................... what do we do now?, wait till the sell off tonight? or just wait until tommorrow to give enough room for it to settle down to technical again? Looking at my cci 6 it is nicely overbought and im very tempted to short it soon for a long term swing trade


jason

WE ALL WENT SHORT THE MARKET AS WE KNEW THERE WOULD BE A SELL OFF YOU ALWAYS AND ALWAYS AND ALWAYS SELL THE NEWS ,,,,, YOU SELL THE NEWS,, YOU SELL THE NEWS

The only strong day ahead of us is Friday as the job reports is out ( and I expect a better than average report ) but apart from that the next few weeks we should be going downnnnnnnnnnn


Both FIBBO AND VEGAS went short with an handsome return for the day

we are full force short

Grey1

 

[jayjay121]

the cci 6 is to fast and needs smoothing.
multiple time frames are essential 10, 5 and 1min.
you cannot do a jigsaw without the pieces.

remember Iraj has said many times perfect entry.....
note the down turn from just after 8 pm tonight.

yes at 8pm came the sell off.....................i read the trend and cycle thread, thanks for highlighting it...............i'm now trying more timeframes to find that perfect entry, 5, 10, 15, 60 and daily to help see the birth of the trend and also using the cci 6 with all the timeframes.

How can i smooth cci 6?...................should i just subscribe to tradestation 8.3 to get the macci and correct tools?


jason