Sports Trading (Option Pricing) Strategy

[gooseman]

i agree with the sports idea and there are clearly mispriced odds hanging around. the beauty of betfair is you can fade the move. (i do not work for BF, I just use it lots!)

 

[shadowninja]

the beauty of betfair is you can fade the move.

Funnily, it's the only time I dare do that ie it shoots up a lot because a goal has been scored so back then lay further down.

 

[shadowninja]

One tip about Bet Angel. Don't repeatedly click blank buttons to find out what they do. Unlike me. That was a pickle to get out of that trade. Trying to work out what I'd bet and in which direction, then to reverse it to minimise losses. Luckily, I made a few quid profit out of it due to the way the market was moving but it coulda been painful.

 

[arabianights]

Done a couple more arbs today, although one of them I had to manipulate the market to get a fill...

Actually I made more out of the market manipulation (legal on BF if not very sporting) than the arb itself...

 

[shadowninja]

You must have put a fair amount on the market to get it to move? (Fair amount being > £2.)

 

[arabianights]

Not really, it was fairly illiquid and quite long prices which I just needed to shorten a tiny bit... total volume a few hundred

I have one more position to close on a different thing, which will make 6 pence. Then done for day.

 

[shadowninja]

Oh, right. Fair enough. I was watching one market. £500-1000 was matched here and there but largely the market was quite thin. Then someone dropped £20k. They lost, as far as I can tell. What's that about?

 

[Chartsy]

I know, I was just letting you know where I was coming from...

Get yerself a copy of bet angel (you can pay by the day and I think they do a trial) and have a go at scalping a game pre match. Basic vanilla DOM based scalping works.

sports bets have a DOM? amazing!

 

[arabianights]

Yup... everything on betfair does

 

[Chartsy]

awesome...tbh i don't REALLY know how a DOM works so it could be a fun exercise...even though i'm swing

 

[wackypete2]

I've never tried sports betting except a few times at the horse track and I couldn't pick a winner in a 2 horse race.. This sounds rather interesting but also looks like something I could get really addicted to. yikes.

As far as I know though, most online betting except horses is illegal in the US anyway. Probably a good thing for me.


Peter

 

[MrGecko]

on flow from the retail sector?

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/options/97518-options-trading.html

This is what I mean - equity equivalent of pork-roll punter.