Special Situations

[Hook Shot]

EMI ~ 264

Apparently rebuffed one of the private equity boys before xmas...... but we know that Warner Music are interested and may still be in the background. Volume has been picking up last few days and... price is not moving much. Signs of accumulation ?

We also know that European courts may have something to say on SonyBMG in not too distant future and this will impact on potential Emi-Warner deal. But other PE boys might be lurking...

 

[Hook Shot]

Photo - Me PHTM @ 88

Price is sliding and shorter trend is down but don't forget last fall quite a few smarties started camping on their share register.... Smart investors and declining share price makes me curious.

 

[Hook Shot]

Hook Shot puts accumulate rating on Emi

EMI ~ 264

Apparently rebuffed one of the private equity boys before xmas...... but we know that Warner Music are interested and may still be in the background. Volume has been picking up last few days and... price is not moving much. Signs of accumulation ?

We also know that European courts may have something to say on SonyBMG in not too distant future and this will impact on potential Emi-Warner deal. But other PE boys might be lurking...

Emi slapped below 240 on restructuring news....... in addition to Private Equity ... Do not forget Bronfmann @Warner Music would be a strategic buyer and assuming EU regulators soften their stance - times like today could be seen as an opportunity.... :idea:

 

[Hook Shot]

Two Top City Managers lurv oil stox .....

Andy Brough(Schroders) & Anthony Bolton (Fidelity) are apparently two top dogs who like the oil sector.....

I found out Schroders have been adding to Dana and the last time I remember them getting into mid cap oils was around October with Premier.... it went ballistic... don't expect the same but ................ you never know. Bolton loves Bp. which is one of his biggest holdings in his special sits fund. Mr Bough also likes Bp. and thinks there is potential for "improvement".

Dana Petroleum 1124+24
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DNX.L&t=6m


Premier Oil 1145+49
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PMO.L&t=6m

 

[Hook Shot]

Those Oil stocks have been a bit of a money graveyard last few months - but life can be like that...........

Currently looking at Redrow - probably the smallest of the mid cap housebuilders. With all the consolidation in the sector - difficult to see RDW being left out.... Chart is clean with sppt at 600 and 550 with first hurdle at 650.... also semblance of pennant formation.. I'll leave you to check that out. Rate decision this week hopefully will drag the price nearer 600p or below.....

Also looking to pick up some 3i(iii).. on anticipation of good news this week. Chart saying a move to 1200p is on so used early morning weakness to get into it for a run into Thurs full year results.... It should blow away 1200 by the looks of things but I am not looking beyond 1200 for now....

Property stocks looks interesting as a sector - some m+a around but again the rate decision could cause some "volatility". Prices seem to be coming to me but I know the prospect for commercial property cannot go on like this so I'm looking for another driver - yep potential M+a.... Great Portland Est (gpor) is possibility and perhaps Slough Est.(slou) too. These are "not investments" 4yrs too late for that... they are purely speculative and hopefully will yield some reward as both are in trading range of sorts..
I hope Gpor will rally toward 750 (poss even 800) in near future.. Slough could breakout at 800 ... I thought I saw an inverted h/s but my eyes are not the best....

Sorry no charts but I have given tickers!!

 

[Hook Shot]

Emi slapped below 240 on restructuring news....... in addition to Private Equity ... Do not forget Bronfmann @Warner Music would be a strategic buyer and assuming EU regulators soften their stance - times like today could be seen as an opportunity.... :idea:

Another sobering experience - what would we do with out stops ?
Rumours are back in force but I'll let this one go ..... I'm psychologically scarred :cheesy: We eventually travelled to near 200p! Price now 248p

I'm actually flat on the trades but considering the risks taken and time elapsed ...feels like a loss ......... Sod's Law says it gets taken out at a good premium - without me....

 

[Hook Shot]

Timing is Everything..

Photo - Me PHTM @ 88

Price is sliding and shorter trend is down but don't forget last fall quite a few smarties started camping on their share register.... Smart investors and declining share price makes me curious.

24th June Sunday press announces that Principal Capital (one of the smart investors) now wants to shake things up...
Thanks for that lads - what kept you ?

Ps. Funny things happen when certain Activist investors start jumping up and down...

Atticus wants Barclays to forget about their bid for Abn....
Will Barclays obey ? If Barclays change their mind their share price will benefit!

Hedgies.. Atticus and TCI had been on Abn's back before any bids materialised.... then hey presto everyone wanted a piece of them . They also told Deutsche Boerse not to bid for LSE last year and they got their way... Deutsche Boerse stock went through the roof.........

Worth keeping an eye on these 2 funds they appear quite powerful - despite only taking relatively small stakes........

 

[Hook Shot]

Will Barclays walk away.......... ?

24th June Sunday press announces that Principal Capital (one of the smart investors) now wants to shake things up...
Thanks for that lads - what kept you ?

Ps. Funny things happen when certain Activist investors start jumping up and down...

Atticus wants Barclays to forget about their bid for Abn....
Will Barclays obey ? If Barclays change their mind their share price will benefit!

Hedgies.. Atticus and TCI had been on Abn's back before any bids materialised.... then hey presto everyone wanted a piece of them . They also told Deutsche Boerse not to bid for LSE last year and they got their way... Deutsche Boerse stock went through the roof.........

Worth keeping an eye on these 2 funds they appear quite powerful - despite only taking relatively small stakes........

For those watching the battle for AbnAmro .... if any - they have decided not to recommend the barclays recently improved bid.... Barclays have vowed to plough on regardless........

So what ?
Well the activist Atticus told Barclays to leeeve it.... Barclays "ignored" them and put in a higher offer for Abn... Now Abn has withdrawn recommendation making it easier for Barclays to walk away just as Atticus had wanted...

Still So what ?
If Barclays walks away their share price will get a significant lift...... now around 683...
670 has been support for 8m and today rebounded off 670 so we have a big move on our hands this week.... up if barclays announce they will abandon the bid - lets see...markets are weak after all..............

 

[Hook Shot]

Summer 2007 post

Atticus wants Barclays to forget about their bid for Abn....
Will Barclays obey ? If Barclays change their mind their share price will benefit!

Hedgies.. Atticus and TCI had been on Abn's back before any bids materialised.... then hey presto everyone wanted a piece of them . They also told Deutsche Boerse not to bid for LSE last year and they got their way... Deutsche Boerse stock went through the roof.........

Worth keeping an eye on these 2 funds they appear quite powerful - despite only taking relatively small stakes........

Barclays did walk away and Royal Bank won the hand of Abn..........Atticus/TCI win again ..pretty good track record those two have

How did I know that was going to happen ...... ? I connected the dots using Google!
Worth watching them if you play special sits ...in the blue chip sector...