Sound Familiar?

[barjon]

John Kay - The parable of the ox

 

[Lord Flasheart]

so based on that,if 1000 of us guess where the ftse will be at the end of the day,thast where it will be.Would be an interesting experiment

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If it were true, 99.5% would be winners. Since 99.5% are not winners, therefore it ain't true.

 

[tomorton]

This parable's to do with guessing what the weight of the ox is now, not what it will be at some later moment in time.

My guess is that most of us, if trying to guess what its wight will be later today, will want to look back at what its weight was yesterday, to see if it's going up or down. Aha, a trend. Hey presto, TA is born.

 

[Shakone]

If it were true, 99.5% would be winners. Since 99.5% are not winners, therefore it ain't true.

Can you explain the logic behind that?