Some of my trades, forecasts

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/aud & eur/usd

Euro--My thread is too deep to go back and research this orignal forecast, but a temporary peak at 1.2722 has been formed and a move to 1.2384 is on the radar. It could go deeper. The top of the daily cloud, though has not been hit, so I'm still looking for another reversal, before we are back into the longer term DOWN.

Aussie--This pair is proving why my high risk tolerance is justified. I entered at .8640. Not ideal, but we are on our way as .8626 is on the radar, officially. As long as we got a false spike out of the daily lcoud, then order has been restored as we head to .7827. Not confirmed yet. There still could be some volatile action, but at least I'm getting out of this thing with a gain, and if voaltile action ensues, then I'll jump back in at a much higher level.

I also took a cursory glance at the USD index. It also loks like it is in a for a big reversal , so the bodes well for the above forecasts.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold

The top of the daily cloud along with the tenkenand the weekly tenken has held up in the circa 1,215 area. With divergent condition on the weekly, it could be headed back to 1154, which is the weekly kijun. 1158 is alos the 61.8% of YR1 back to the YP.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I was hoping you were long aftrer catching the bounce off the monthly kijun.
Your post reminded me of my signals posting days. I told this guy to follow my forecasts on a demo, and he took me up on it. I issued a long on the USD/JPY while we were chatting, but meant short. It took off against me, and he gets a gain on his demo. We continued talking and I was talking about how I was DOWN a little. Once we continued to talk, we understood the gaffe. He jumps out of the long, enters the short, and it takes off the other direction. For him it was only a demo gain, but still a nice memory.

I should have said that I'm short, so used to not talking about my trades. lol

 

[rgsharp]

I was hoping you were long aftrer catching the bounce off the monthly kijun.
Your post reminded me of my signals posting days. I told this guy to follow my forecasts on a demo, and he took me up on it. I issued a long on the USD/JPY while we were chatting, but meant short. It took off against me, and he gets a gain on his demo. We continued talking and I was talking about how I was DOWN a little. Once we continued to talk, we understood the gaffe. He jumps out of the long, enters the short, and it takes off the other direction. For him it was only a demo gain, but still a nice memory.

Ummmm. Thinking that I must learn IC . Anway got out on b.e.
Another day, another £ hopefully.

Why did you stop posting signals?

 

[4xpipcounter]

Many currencies have longer term implications to them. Many of the pairs have had some choppy volatility to them. Still, nothing has changed. As an example, cable is still stuck in between 1.5005 and 1.5278. Nothing has changed with the 1.3847 forecast.
The EUR/GBP is still up as a trade, and we did have the pullback after the bounce off the bottom of the hourly cloud, as expected, and the move into the .8365--.8385 area. The peak, so far was .8386, and still expecting a fall to at least .8283.
The NZD/CHF is also behaving as forecasted .
Nothing has changed concerning the aussie and the kiwi.
I try to limit the forecasts to the stronger obviations.
What is the IC and b.e? I'll probably kick myself for not remembering right after this post, but I'll chance it

Ummmm. Thinking that I must learn IC . Anway got out on b.e.
Another day, another £ hopefully.

Why did you stop posting signals?

 

[NKE]

Re: EUR/GBP trade

Richard, in regards to this post in #318, "What would your trigger to get short be? "
The .8420 would be perfect because of the strong confluence of events. This is the daily cloud, along with the obviations on the daily S&R's, and the stochastics being OB. .8420 is also the weekly tenken.

Good call on EURGBP - topped out to the pip - well almost

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/GBP trade

Nicolas, this was a tremendous confluence between my yearly level, the bottom of the cloud, and stochastics. I never expect to hit it right on the nose. I missed this one by 2 pips, but if someone was actually following my signals on a demo account, it means no trade. I betrayed my "ideal entry" adage, and set an entry at .8410. I was getting ready to go to bed, I didn't want to hassle with it, and guarantee me to get in the trade.

Good call on EURGBP - topped out to the pip - well almost

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/usd

We laready had the stochastics bearish divergence effect on price, which is why we saw price plung to 1.4948. After the completion of the move, I think, once and for all, the picture is clearing up.
By the appearance on the candles on the daily, it appears the market has gone sideways. A look at the kijun sen indicates otherwise. The last time the kijun was hit was on June 11th when the UP was still trying to get a grip.
The 1.4948 level was suggesting to cable that the altimeter was just a little lower than it should be, and as a result, we got a bullish engulfing candle as sson as it happened, and price surged back above 1.5005. Do remember I said we need a daily close below that in order to confirm the DOWN.
Currently price has been struggling at the MR1 at 1.5156, and the next R is the WR2 at 1.5168. Watch for reaction in this area.
Ideally, we need a small corrective move in this area, and then need a solid leg UP towards 1.5278, and then cable gazing should be over with. Once to that level, it should confirm the move towards 1.3847 over the next few weeks.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Eur/usd

The one I had tis mapped out was a move towards the daily kijun, now at 1.2418. First, it is on its way, and then out of the clear blue, it changes its mond, and forms a bullish engulfing candle. The WR1 is 1.2706, with no other R in sight. Once hit, this should amount to a strong reversal.
Another thing that is making market action so hard to grasp of late is that the higher TF's seem to be indicating something other than a berish drop. The monthly is baiting the euro at 1.3510. After the whole reversal happens, where we get a ride back to the mid-1.1600's, that would be shaping up as a violent scenario.
For now, 1.2706 appears to be at least an excellent intraday shorting opportunity.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Aud/usd

For the last 18 4-hour candles, price has been encamped under key R area of .8775. This correction is almost doomed. What is the preferable scenario is to get another bounce off this area, have the pair recover its bearings quickly, then rush to .8834. That should be absolute containment. If it doesn't, then you know an update is coming.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Usd/chf

This pair is going to meet with support at 1.0507, which is my MS1. After the bounce, then it should return to the DOWN towards the bottom of the weekly cloud at 1.0317.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/aud & eur/usd

Okay, I was wrong. Both pairs made their initial moves, but stopped short
Notice, with the aussie, how fast price moved once .8875 was taken out convincingly.
As far as the aussie is concerned, the MR2 at .8834 was not hit, yet. The DR3 is .8845, which still could be hit today. Also, my WR1a is .8884. Once we can properly ascertain the u-turns, then things will clear up.
The EUR/USD is struggling around the WR1 at 1.2706. At this point, the ideal situation (Don't think we'll get it.) is for a continuation to the WR2 at 1.2773, which would also meet up with the top of the daily cloud in that circa area at 1.2777. If we don't get the continuation then we endure more consolidative activity. Regardless, daily kijun is going to get hit, so it will make fo a nice short if we can ever determine where the u-turn is.
One positive thing to come come out of this is that ther failure of the downside objectives, is making for a fun ride once these pairs can make up its mind what it wants to do. Divergency is playing a factor, along with the upside topping factors.
Another thing is that you can usually tell when its ready by the initial move it makes on the reversal. Here the personality has been the opposite, we have gotten weak moves DOWN, then it was in your face on the way back UP.

Euro--My thread is too deep to go back and research this orignal forecast, but a temporary peak at 1.2722 has been formed and a move to 1.2384 is on the radar. It could go deeper. The top of the daily cloud, though has not been hit, so I'm still looking for another reversal, before we are back into the longer term DOWN.

Aussie--This pair is proving why my high risk tolerance is justified. I entered at .8640. Not ideal, but we are on our way as .8626 is on the radar, officially. As long as we got a false spike out of the daily lcoud, then order has been restored as we head to .7827. Not confirmed yet. There still could be some volatile action, but at least I'm getting out of this thing with a gain, and if voaltile action ensues, then I'll jump back in at a much higher level.

I also took a cursory glance at the USD index. It also loks like it is in a for a big reversal , so the bodes well for the above forecasts.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: Eur/jpy

I missed it on tihs one, and I really don't know what I was thinking. First, we did get the exepcted pullback, not to 109.09, but that part is okay, because it was meant to be interpreted as support only, and not one of my "radar" forecasts.
The problem came with the weekly tenken. I must have been out to lunch. Price is now working its way around the daily tenken. The weekly kijun at 119.12 could be hit.
Right now, price has inched its way into the daily cloud. Watch for a reaction at the WR1 at 113.01, and maybe the WR2 at 113.98. Because of price on many of the pairs not finding any traction. and because the daily chart has another reversal implication, I'll go on record as saying we just got a headfake into the cloud. That does not happen often.

This pair has been struggling at the daily kijun at 110.35. I'm looking for the tenken to be support at 109.09, and an eventual push to the weekly tenken at 114.79. It's even feesible to see a push to the monthly tenken at 121.51, but not yet confirmed.

 

[lbranjord]

Re: EUR/JPY trade

Here's an excellent shorting opportunity to start the week. That is provided we don't get some obscene spike to start the week.
It is one of those ideal 100-pip setups on the 4-hour chart. The pullback could be brief, so I'd be ready to pull the trigger on the exit quick. Another words, the tenken is 109.39, and the kijun is 109.01. Notice how the tenken has crossed the kijun. It is travelling a distinctive, divergent path. What makes this a nice short trade to start the week is that itis at the bottom of the 4-hour cloud, The cloud is bearish into the future. The MR1 got hit for the first time this month at 110.01. The stochastics are crossed in OB territory.
This will be another good opportunity to see the ichimoku and my S&R's in action at the same time. Also, the cloud gives a really good time element. This trade should take 24 hours or less to complete.

I call these kinda things a rounding top. especially when they have some fat bars involved that didn't actually accomplish anything. Agree w/you

 

[4xpipcounter]

Re: EUR/JPY trade

It was one of those deals that had strong obviations because of the 4-hour chart, but was still pushing up heavy on the daily--monthly. That trade bordered on a scalp. Even going to the abthroom took a backseat until the trade was closed.

I call these kinda things a rounding top. especially when they have some fat bars involved that didn't actually accomplish anything. Agree w/you

 

[4xpipcounter]

GBP/USD update

My entry order was hot today at the 1.5278 level. It has been a strong UP this week, as the WR2 is 1.5167. There has not been a strong enough move in the reversal, so it is suggesting it is not ready, so I'll be ready to take my position out on a whim.
Notice the price action between the YS1 at 1.5005 and the 23.6% level of YS1--YP. The only close in the last 13 days (Excluding Sundays becasue there is not enough action.) to fall under 1.5005 was when the cloud contained the drop. I kept saying we needed a close below 1.5005 to signal the DOWN has begun, but we get an impulsive rise off the top of the cloud once it was hit.
My conjecture is there will be consolidation, as the weekly cloud is also acting as resitance along with the kijun at 1.5343. A daily close above 1.5278 would suggest we are headed to the next level on the yearlies, which is the 38.2 at 1.5447. That looks doubtful because of implications with the weekly cloud. Price would continue to the 1.6's, whiich seems to far-fetched. Also, hitting 1.5278 has completed the yearly cycle, as I have mentioned a few times before, in a perceived correction, which means a strong reversal is impending.
In order for that to be realized, it seems there is going to be some sideways activity under 1.5343 and daily closes under 1,5278. The stochastics on the weekly are wide-mouthed, which indicates it is still hungry to rise further, but said indications will seem to hinder those ideas, wihch means more consolidative activity will be seen.
Also, as of this point in the analysis, I took my short out at 1.5223

 

[4xpipcounter]

EUR/GBP update

My entry for this pair was complicit with the events that were seen on the daily, which is also a reason I am hanging on to it as long as I have been. Stiochastics OB, under the cloud, while my .8420 level was seen under the cloud. I did cheat and set an entry order at .8410 to make sure I got in, and I was very fortunate, as the peak was .8418.
Conjecture tells me the recent low set at .8138 is going to be it. Therefore, what is perceived on the daily is what I will have to determine my exit.
As of this writing, there has been nice price action to the downside. A daily close below the tenken at .8335 will greatly abet the interest of it moving lower. If this is the case, then a close below .8325 should also be seen. Posted, is the 4-hour chart which tells me it is headed to .8283, and then .8230. It also tells me, there will be an initial struggle to get that low, because initial contact with the cloud will be support, then there is the WS2 at .8309, and the MR1 at .8294. If I get a spike through all this to .8283, then the trade is going out and calling it a day. That would still represent a 127 point gain on a slow-moving pair.
Longer term, as long as original conjecture is rigth and the preceived notion is that this is only a correction of the new uptrend, then .8230 should mark a viable entry for a long. The next resistance of amjor consequence will be the YS1, which is a confluence with the top of the daily cloud at .8505.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gold

Hari!, here's this week's S&R's: R--1239.33, 1225.43, 1217.30; S--1200.88, 1192.75, 1178.84.
Gold is having trouble getting traction to return to the UP. This is because the weekly chart is maintaining a very bearish bias. The WR1 matched nicely with the top of the daily cloud and the 1217.30 level. Because of the bounce off of the YR1 at 1256.32, and the bearish implications with the weekly chart, this could lead to the 1st significant price action under the daily cloud since the early part of February of this year.
It is also worth noting the closes and the opens between 1195.70 and 1218.87.
There is still lots of support if we get the proported move. We see the bottom of the daily cloud, and then 1176.98. After it is all said and done, we could get a move to the 61.8% level of YR1--YP, which is 1158.25. It's also worth noting how choppy the reversal has been, even after the YR1 was hit, which indicates we are in the middle of a correction of the total uptrend.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Gbp/aud

This correction is close to being finished. The bottom of the cloud is 1.7053, which would be ideal for a long entry, as the pair continues its long-term journey towards 2.1654.

 

[4xpipcounter]

AUD/USD update

In lieu of what is happening with the forecast on the GBP/AUD, this fits in nicely.
Notice the perfect bounce off of the 23.6% level at .8682. .8974 is the YP, which is where the pair is headed. It is very OB, momentum has given out on the stochastics. There will also be a meeting with the 200 MA in what is still a correction of the downtrend. The tenken and kijun have levelled. The reversal at the circa .8974 area is going to be huge.