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USDCAD Technical Outlook​

The USDCAD pair succeeded to touch our waited target at 1.383 now, providing positive trades that support the chances of surpassing this level to head towards achieving more bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, noting that our next target extends to 1.39.

The bullish channel organizes the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability above 1.376. The expected trading range for today is between 1.376 support and 1.391 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bullish​

 

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Gold Technical Outlook​

Gold price continued to decline to surpass our first target at 1673 and reach the extended target at 1660, and we expect the continuation of the negative pressure to break the last level and open the way for more decline on the intraday basis, to head towards visiting 1645 followed by 1630.00 levels as next negative stations.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain active for the upcoming period, noting that breaching 1686.4 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to recover again. The expected trading range for today is between 1640.00 support and 1680.00 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish​

 

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USDCHF Technical Outlook​

The long-term trend remains upward. Yesterday, the traders broke through the resistance level of 0.995, which opens up the target for buyers around the June high of 1.0040. If it is broken, the next target will be 1.0120. If the price returns below the resistance level of 0.9950, a correction is likely with the nearest target at 0.9840.

The medium-term trend is up. Last week, quotes overcame target zone 3 (0.9903–0.9890), and the target for purchases for this week was zone 4 (1.0049–1.0034). Today, the traders renewed the high around 1.002, and a correction is developing. If within its framework, market participants test the key trend support 0.9876–0.9862, then new long positions from today's high at 1.002 should be considered.

Resistance levels: 1.004, 1.012 | Support levels: 0.994, 0.984​

 

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook​

Crude oil price trades negatively to press on 89.75 level, to hint heading to decline on the intraday basis, targeting testing 88.2 initially, noting that breaking this level will extend the bearish wave towards 86.65 as a next negative target.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 90.6 will stop the current negative pressure and lead the price to resume the bullish wave that its next main target located at 93.17. The expected trading range for today is between 88 support and 91 resistances.

The expected trend for today: Bearish​

 

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ETHUSD - Murray analysis​

The ETHUSD pair continues to trade within the mid-term descending channel. Currently, the decline has slowed down as the price has formed a sideways range of 1375 - 1250 (Murray [3/8]-[2/8]), in which it has been for more than three weeks.

This week, the quotes are approaching the lower limit of the 1250 range, with consolidation below which further downward dynamics to the levels of 1125 (Murray [1/8]) and 1000 (Murray [0/8]) is possible. The 1375 mark remains key for the "bulls", its breakout will give the prospect of growth to the levels of 1450 (Fibo retracement 50.0%), 1500 (Murray [4/8]) and 1575 (Fibo retracement 38.2%).

Resistance levels: 1375, 1450, 1500, 1575 | Support levels: 1250, 1125, 1000​

 

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USDJPY - The US dollar updates record highs​

The USDJPY pair is developing an uptrend, renewing record highs. After some decline last week, the dollar resumed active growth against the yen, despite the risks of new currency interventions from the Bank of Japan: the instrument consolidated above 146.00, and the "bulls" are waiting for the publication of the September minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting during the day.

Additional pressure on the positions of the yen today is exerted by uncertain macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Machinery Orders in August showed a sharp decline of 5.8% after an increase of 5.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected –2.3%, and in annual terms the indicator increased by 9.7% after 12.8%, shown a month earlier, which also turned out to be worse than forecasts at the level of 12.6%. The day before, August data recorded a surplus in the Trade Balance, which decreased by 96.1% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 58.9 billion yen due to the fact that a weak national currency causes an increase in the cost of imports into the country, while increasing prices Japanese goods sold abroad are not so significant.

During the week, the market's attention will be drawn to publications from the US. In particular, key inflation statistics for September will be released tomorrow, where current forecasts suggest a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index from 8.3% to 8.1%, while the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy may again adjust from 6.3% to 6.5%.

Resistance levels: 147, 148, 149, 150 | Support levels: 146, 145, 144, 143.51​

 

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NZDUSD presses on the support​

The NZDUSD pair resumes its negative trading to press on 0.5564 level again, waiting for confirmed break to open the way to head towards our next target at 0.55. The technical indicators provide negative signals that support the continuation of the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 0.5640.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.55 support and 0.5615 resistance, and the expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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EURUSD Ends the Temporary Rise​

The EURUSD pair bounced downwards clearly after the temporary rise that it witnessed yesterday, as the EMA50 (BOA middle bankd) formed solid resistance barrier against the price, to start pressing on 0.9670 level again, which keeps the bearish trend scenario active on the intraday basis, waiting to visit 0.9630 (Fibo 78.6) followed by 0.9550 levels as next main targets. Stochastic provides negative signal that supports the continuation of the expected decline, which will remain valid conditioned by the price stability below 0.9790.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9600 support and 0.9760 resistance. The expected trend for today is Bearish.​

 

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USDJPY surpasses the target​

The USDJPY pair opens today’s trading with clear positivity to breach 145.9 level and attempts to hold above it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bullish trend on the intraday and short term basis, waiting to visit 147 as a next main target. The EMA50 (BB Middle line) keeps supporting trading inside the bullish channel that appears on the chart, noting that breaking 145.9 and holding below it might press on the price to achieve some temporary bearish correction before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 145.6 support and 147 resistances. The expected trend for today: Bullish​

 

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Crude oil price approaches the extended target​

Crude oil price shows positive trades to approach testing the key resistance 88.65, which represents one of the next trend keys besides 86.65 support line, as the price needs to surpass one of these levels to detect its destination clearly, which makes us continue with our neutrality until now.

To review the details of the expected targets of the beach, the expected trading range for today is between 85.50 support and 89.50 resistance. The expected trend for today: Neutral​

 

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Sterling climbs nearly 1% despite GDP contraction data​

Sterling rose against most major currencies on Wednesday despite some negative UK data. Earlier UK data showed GDP contracted 0.3% m/m in September while analysts expected no change in the growth rate.

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The Greenback​

The dollar index rose 0.2% to 113.4 as of 17:05 GMT, with a session-high at 113.5, and a low at 113.05. Tomorrow, market await consumer prices data for September. Such data will give a clue about the future directions for the Federal Reserve on monetary policies and rate decisions. Earlier US data showed producer prices rose 0.4% m/m in September, above estimates of 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve will release minutes of the September meeting, at which it decided to hike rates by 75 basis points, the third such hike in a row to 3.25%, the highest since 2008.​

 

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EURUSD builds bearish channel​

The EURUSD pair continues to fluctuate around 0.97 level, and finds difficulty to confirm breaking it, noticing that the price moves inside intraday bearish channel that supports the chances of continuing the expected bearish wave for the upcoming period, which targets 0.963 followed by 0.955 levels as next main stations.

In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend unless breaching 0.9790 level and holding above it, noting that stochastic loses its positive momentum now to support the chances of resuming the suggested decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.96 support and 0.976 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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NZDUSD Awaits New Declines​

The NZDUSD pair provided slight positive trades yesterday to test 0.56 barrier, noticing that stochastic begins to provide negative signals now, waiting to motivate the price to resume the bearish wave that its targets begin by breaking 0.5564 to open the way to visit 0.55.

The EMA50 (BB middle line) supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless the price rallied to breach 0.564 followed by 0.5705 levels and hold above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.553 support and 0.5640 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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USDCAD Within Positive Pattern​

The USDCAD pair’s recent trades are confined within bullish pennant pattern, thus, breaching 1.3855 will activate the positive effect of this pattern and push the price to resume the main bullish wave, to open the way to rally towards our next main target at 1.3900.

Therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and active for the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 (BB Middle band), taking into consideration that the continuation of the bullish wave requires holding above 1.3700. The expected trading range for today is between 1.3760 support and 1.3900 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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USDCHF Hits the Target​

The USDCHF pair succeeded to touch our main waited target at 1.0064 and found solid resistance there, to rebound bearishly and head towards achieving expected decline in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 0.9910 followed by 0.9860 levels mainly. Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 1.0064 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to achieve more gains on the short term and medium term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9900 support and 1.0064 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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AUDUSD heads towards the resistance​

The AUDUSD pair approached few pips away from our waited target at 0.6160, and bounced upwards strongly to head towards expected test to the bearish channel’s resistance around 0.6410, making the bullish bias suggested in the upcoming sessions. Surpassing 0.6350 is required to reinforce the expectations of continuing the rise, noting that breaking 0.6275 will stop the suggested bullish bias and press on the price to resume the main bearish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6275 support and 0.6410 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.​

 

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Wall Street declines after inflation data​

US stock indices declined on Thursday amid concerns about a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve following inflation data. US consumer prices rose 8.2% in September, beating estimates of 8.1%, and less than 8.3% in the previous reading. Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose 6.6%, also above estimates of 6.5%, and above the previous reading's 6.3%.​

• Core consumer prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis, up from 0.4% in August.​
• US unemployment claims jumped to 228 thousand in the week ending October 8 from 219 thousand in the previous reading, while analysts expected 225 thousand.​
• Dow Jones fell 0.7%, or 206 points to 29,004, while S&P 500 shed 1%, or 36 points to 3,540, as NASDAQ declined 1.4%, or 145 points to 10,275.​

 

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USDCHF Tests the Resistance Again​

USDCHF pair returned to rise after leaning on 0.9965 level, to test 1.0064 level again, which formed solid resistance against the price, to keep the negative scenario active until now, waiting to resume the bearish bias to head towards 0.991 followed by 0.986 levels as next main targets. Stochastic negativity supports the expected decline, which will remain valid unless breaching 1.0064 and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.995 support and 1.008 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bearish.​

 

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Dollar climbs after a batch of US data​

Dollar rose against major currencies on Friday, bolstering the gains following a batch of new data.​

• The data showed retail sales were flat last month, while analysts expected a 0.2% rise.​
• Core sales rose 0.1% last month, beating estimates of a 0.1% dip.​
• Michigan\Reuters consumer confidence index rose to 59.8 in October from 58.6 in September.​
• Recent data this week showed consumer prices rose 8.2% in September, while analysts expected 8.1%, and compared to 8.3% in August.​
• Such data bolsters the case for aggressive policy tightening and rate hikes by the Fed, which threatens a global recession.​

The dollar index rose 0.8% to 113.2 as of 17:56 GMT, with a session-high at 113.4, and a low at 112.1.​

 

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XAUUSD - Upward correction around 1650​

Gold quotes again came under pressure after the publication of statistics on inflation in the US: in September, consumer prices added 8.2% after rising by 8.3% in the previous month and turned out to be worse than analysts' forecasts of an increase of 8.1%, while the Harmonized Core CPI for the same period accelerated from 6.3% to 6.6%. This strengthened investors' confidence that the US Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates and, already during the November meeting, will increase the value by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. A number of other leading central banks of the world adhere to a similar policy, since inflationary risks are still extremely high.

The trend to increase the number of positions in the market continues, and last week was the third in a row, when an increase in the number of contracts was recorded. According to the latest report from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions increased to 94.4 thousand from 88.4 thousand a week earlier. If one pays attention to the balance of sellers and buyers, the "bears" still hold the lead in the positions of swap dealers, the number of which is 169.310 thousand against 91.854 thousand of the "bulls". As for the dynamics, this week the changes affected the buyers more: they liquidated 2.423 thousand, and the sellers got rid of only 0.511 thousand.

In turn, quotes are supported by ongoing geopolitical risks due to the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine, which is still in an acute phase and there are no clear trends towards its diplomatic resolution.

Resistance levels: 1653.92, 1675, 1688.58, 1700 | Support levels: 1640, 1620, 1600, 1579.25​