Soc Gen - Inconsistancies?

[RichieE]

There are some interesting conspiracy theories coming up about SocGen and the unauthorised trades by Jerome Kieval.

There are two stories that I have heard.

CONSPIRACY THEORY 1: The Fed and the 75bps cut - did they know?
On Friday the Financial times implies that the timeline of events is as follows;

Fri 11
Jerome's unauthorised positions are noticed.
Sat 12/Sun 13
Jerome is interviewed by SocGen's management
Mon 14
SocGen unwinds the positions on the open market
Tue 15
The Fed Reserve cuts by 75bps.
Wed 16
The Banque de France contacts the US Fed and informs them of the SocGen Issue

Hello?!?!? Are we saying that the Fed were UNAWARE of the goings on at SocGen? A lot of people around me are speculating that the Fed knew exactly what was happening when they made this cut. What do you think?


CONSPIRACY THEORY 2: SocGen used Jerome as fall guy for subprime losses.

The FT states that SocGen took at €2bln subprime writedown while Jerome Kieval's loss was €4.9bln. Also SocGen seems to be taking the opportunity to raise money from this debacle.

"SocGen will raise €5.5bln through an emergency rights issue... that will leave it's Tier One capital ratio hight than before at 8 per cent."

The conspiracy I've heard is that Jerome didn't lose that much cash. The suggestion I've heard is that Jerome is taking the fall for the bank's mishandling of the subprime crisis, the losses have been manipulated and this is why SocGen have not taken criminal proceedings against him - since they will have to disclose too much of their internal procedures.

Thoughts anyone?

 

[Atilla]

There are some interesting conspiracy theories coming up about SocGen and the unauthorised trades by Jerome Kieval.

There are two stories that I have heard.

CONSPIRACY THEORY 1: The Fed and the 75bps cut - did they know?
On Friday the Financial times implies that the timeline of events is as follows;

Fri 11
Jerome's unauthorised positions are noticed.
Sat 12/Sun 13
Jerome is interviewed by SocGen's management
Mon 14
SocGen unwinds the positions on the open market
Tue 15
The Fed Reserve cuts by 75bps.
Wed 16
The Banque de France contacts the US Fed and informs them of the SocGen Issue

Hello?!?!? Are we saying that the Fed were UNAWARE of the goings on at SocGen? A lot of people around me are speculating that the Fed knew exactly what was happening when they made this cut. What do you think?


CONSPIRACY THEORY 2: SocGen used Jerome as fall guy for subprime losses.

The FT states that SocGen took at €2bln subprime writedown while Jerome Kieval's loss was €4.9bln. Also SocGen seems to be taking the opportunity to raise money from this debacle.



The conspiracy I've heard is that Jerome didn't lose that much cash. The suggestion I've heard is that Jerome is taking the fall for the bank's mishandling of the subprime crisis, the losses have been manipulated and this is why SocGen have not taken criminal proceedings against him - since they will have to disclose too much of their internal procedures.

Thoughts anyone?

Depends if scenario 2 has substance to it or not. If the truth ever got out then the magnitude of flight would reach total meltdown proportions.

I don't think case 1 is plausible as many other institutions have already announced much bigger exposure and losses to the sub-prime losses already. What's different about SocGen?

However, I'm tempted to believe both and sell the rumour...

 

[fibonelli]

Not buying the Jerome Kerviel - SocGen story

 

[FXSCALPER2]

Maybe SOCGEN exaggerated what actually happened. maybe there is more to the story than this one guy losing a huge amount of money. But I think most people find it hard to believe because they overestimate the big banks and other financial experts. My feeling is that most of the people in the markets are just dick'heads who don't know what the hell is going on. Remember the movie about Nick Leeson? The guy was really not any more sophisticated than a head of broccolli but his bosses knew even less than he did. I wouldn't be surprised by anything that happens in the markets. This is a place where you get the nobel prize while saying the markets are efficient. How funny is that? Look how 'risk appetite' changes every day and how absurd the explanations for market moves are. It is a wonder that something completely world-destroying doesn't happen given how useless human beings are as a crowd.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Do you mind FXscalper part deaux ,I like broccolli....
nice postings.....

why do all the banks choose the brightest people to work for them then ? would they be better off recruiting from the counters of Burger King ?

I mean how can intellectuals feel satisfied with trading ? its like trying to make some use out of toxic sludge or something, making toxic waste worthwhile, give it a purpose, make it normal. At least people who make and serve hamburgers are providing some sort of service . traders though ? mmmmm....

 

[zigglewigler]

Interesting conspiracy theories?

Already!?

Why can't people wait until the facts are established, then make up whatever nonsense they want?

It was at least a few weeks before CT's concluded that the Twin Towers were brought down by explosive charges.

Now days the Grassy Knoll is the starting point. Just who the hell is running this asylum?

As for the calibre of people involved, Nick Lesson got an F in his A level maths exam.

It isn't just cream that rises to the top, there are such things as floaters.

 

[DC STOXX]

There are some interesting conspiracy theories coming up about SocGen and the unauthorised trades by Jerome Kieval.

There are two stories that I have heard.

CONSPIRACY THEORY 1: The Fed and the 75bps cut - did they know?
On Friday the Financial times implies that the timeline of events is as follows;

Fri 11
Jerome's unauthorised positions are noticed.
Sat 12/Sun 13
Jerome is interviewed by SocGen's management
Mon 14
SocGen unwinds the positions on the open market
Tue 15
The Fed Reserve cuts by 75bps.
Wed 16
The Banque de France contacts the US Fed and informs them of the SocGen Issue

Hello?!?!? Are we saying that the Fed were UNAWARE of the goings on at SocGen? A lot of people around me are speculating that the Fed knew exactly what was happening when they made this cut. What do you think?


CONSPIRACY THEORY 2: SocGen used Jerome as fall guy for subprime losses.

The FT states that SocGen took at €2bln subprime writedown while Jerome Kieval's loss was €4.9bln. Also SocGen seems to be taking the opportunity to raise money from this debacle.



The conspiracy I've heard is that Jerome didn't lose that much cash. The suggestion I've heard is that Jerome is taking the fall for the bank's mishandling of the subprime crisis, the losses have been manipulated and this is why SocGen have not taken criminal proceedings against him - since they will have to disclose too much of their internal procedures.

Thoughts anyone?

His positions where still profitable up to midday January 18th though

He also netted 51m euros last year for the bank

Just some things to think about,

To be honest i think he was taking similar positions all the time averaging his **** off with all the money the bank had, then for some unknown reason it didn't work out this time.

The sub prime cover up also makes sense

 

[arabianights]

My suspicions, which I don't see as conspiracy theories, not least because I'm happy for them to be falsified, are that the market falls wouldn't have happened without socgen, in which case the Fed would not have cut. Neither do I beleive that socgen would have reacted this way if the trader had made money.