chump
I on the other hand quite like the term, as it gives a certain tangibility to the unthinking, charging mass of "follow me"..........from whichever school of thought.
It looks as if we may have lost mark_b_27 which is a shame as he looked to be really onto the right track.
However, lets look at technical analysis, my favorite target.
And my question to the Technical experts is....................
How does a timing methodology, identify periods of intermittant inefficiencies?
Now of course, you may disagree, and say market inefficiencies are unimportant.
Fine, define the edge, that Technical analysis provides.
cheers d998
I on the other hand quite like the term, as it gives a certain tangibility to the unthinking, charging mass of "follow me"..........from whichever school of thought.
It looks as if we may have lost mark_b_27 which is a shame as he looked to be really onto the right track.
However, lets look at technical analysis, my favorite target.
And my question to the Technical experts is....................
How does a timing methodology, identify periods of intermittant inefficiencies?
Now of course, you may disagree, and say market inefficiencies are unimportant.
Fine, define the edge, that Technical analysis provides.
cheers d998
charliechan said:
You are definitely the kind of chap that would start a brawl in an empty room. Now you even try and manipulate posts to suit your purposes, but what are you seeking to prove by doing this? I suggest you go and read from posts 208 through to 211 before making these lamentable posts.
I cannot recall any post contained in this thread that mentions limitations on the returns that can be achieved by any type of trader and I have never put forward any argument implying such. One can understand why a dedicated TA trader like yourself that constantly makes 7 digit returns every year would be irritated at the thought that your mastery of the markets is not appreciated by those on these boards, it probably gives you sleepless nights.
Since you have revisited the Ant Theory may I suggest that you take time out and observe them, it is fairly obvious that you will not get a good chance to do this in England so you will be better off travelling to a warmer country.
One ant (analyst) will stumble on food and return to the colony to report it's find; a group of ants will now go out and retrieve part of the food and report back to the colony (more analysts and traders). On their return, masses of ants (funds and traders) will now depart and seek to retrieve more of the food (take positions). The routes that they take (trading methods) will be diverse but most will end up at the located food whilst some will be lost in the wilderness (winners and losers). Those that locate the food will now seek to transport it back to the mound with varying degrees of success, some make it back without food (losers). Those that make it back will then return for more (traders chasing markets higher and higher) until there is none left (bottom falls out of the market).
Spurred on by their earlier success ( traders feeling that there are always rich pickings), many ants will now go off in different directions seeking more bounty. Some will find more food (more stocks) and others will return empty handed and hungry (broke, margin calls etc.).
SOCRATES
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Pointless Excercise.
Charliechan, though you and I have not met, I am willing to give you some advice, what is more, I am willing to give you this advice in public.
The advice is " don't persist ".
Now there is another separate facet of the same scenario for you to put your attention on :
We are now being invited to comment on "How does a timing methodology identify periods of intermittent inefficiency" , I ask you.......
And as if this was not enough, also, to define the EDGE that technical analysis provides...
Don't you think the envelope of our tolerance has been pushed far enough for us to hang around any longer wasting time pointlessly, and other things to be considered ?
NUDGE !
Kind Regards.
Charliechan, though you and I have not met, I am willing to give you some advice, what is more, I am willing to give you this advice in public.
The advice is " don't persist ".
Now there is another separate facet of the same scenario for you to put your attention on :
We are now being invited to comment on "How does a timing methodology identify periods of intermittent inefficiency" , I ask you.......
And as if this was not enough, also, to define the EDGE that technical analysis provides...
Don't you think the envelope of our tolerance has been pushed far enough for us to hang around any longer wasting time pointlessly, and other things to be considered ?
NUDGE !
Kind Regards.
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Rognvald
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some of the characteristics that you mention in your earlier post allow them to do this, along with a strong belief in themselves, and their abilities, rather than bothering about whether markets are efficient or not, and trying to solve the puzzle with a junior ant city from toys r us, complete with toilet roll tubes and other nonsense![/QUOTE]
HEHE! Charliechan
Its really very amusing
Still, however funny, its probably best kept under wraps as direct language like can excite the emotions and that does not make for good threads here
HEHE! Charliechan
Its really very amusing
Still, however funny, its probably best kept under wraps as direct language like can excite the emotions and that does not make for good threads here
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SOCRATES
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It may interest some of you to know that the London School of Economics succeeded in making a working model of the Economy. I don't know if they still have it, but several years ago I saw it. It showed currency flows and all sorts of things.
Fantastic contraption it was, a huge complexity of plastic tubes pumping different coloured liquids at different rates though various diameters, all in sequence and interacting with each other, a work of art it was, does anyone here remember seeing this model ?
Fantastic contraption it was, a huge complexity of plastic tubes pumping different coloured liquids at different rates though various diameters, all in sequence and interacting with each other, a work of art it was, does anyone here remember seeing this model ?
SOCRATES
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What a wonderful analogy, LION, do you know, I am now beginning to get the drift of this with greater recognition. It illustrates that in the end analysis all ants are the same, just that the way they go about things is different, as they have different tasks to fulfil and hence different motives.LION63 said:
Of course the great peril must be the aardvark on the prowl and unexpected downpours that succeed in washing all away, but no matter, all returns to normal very soon.
And therein lies even further evidence.
The "practitioners" who endlessly drone on about how proficient, accurate, blah, blah, they are, cannot put together even a simple model for your consideration.
What we have instead is the endless drivel about how "secret" it all is.
As usual nothing but the usual dross.
cheers d998
The "practitioners" who endlessly drone on about how proficient, accurate, blah, blah, they are, cannot put together even a simple model for your consideration.
What we have instead is the endless drivel about how "secret" it all is.
As usual nothing but the usual dross.
cheers d998
Soccy........................
But of course you see the market ( aardvark ) holds no fear for the fundamentalist. On the contrary, the market, simply provides the choice.
You could argue similarly for a technical perspective, but there is an important difference, and that is the market dictates to the technical trader, it offers him no choice, just absolutes.
cheers d998
But of course you see the market ( aardvark ) holds no fear for the fundamentalist. On the contrary, the market, simply provides the choice.
You could argue similarly for a technical perspective, but there is an important difference, and that is the market dictates to the technical trader, it offers him no choice, just absolutes.
cheers d998
SOCRATES
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You are not exactly a great luminary, pratbh. You would be well advised to keep to your promise and not interject out of context with what is discussed on these boards at higher levels than you can cope with at your standard of knowledge as it is at the moment.pratbh said:
Is that understood ?
From a fundamentalists point of view, price is an integral component in the valuation.
The business has an intrinsic value, that is calculated from the financial statements. This is while open to certain inexactitudes, is nevertheless based on factual information from which an intrinsic value can be calculated.
The "Market" will also, via a quoted price, place a valuation on the business, or stock.
When the market is "inefficient" this quoted price will differ from the intrinsic valuation. It is at this point a position can safely be taken as the markets valuation will be based on psychological factors, emotions, perceptions.
The intrinsic valuation is based on factual information gleaned from the financial statements, and independant of market psychological influences, hence no stoploss required. Fundies shall profit from the markets folly, not partake in the folly.
Technical analysis, however has no such fallback, as there is no attempt to value, no attempt to measure "inefficiency", simply to time the entry, and ride the momentum this is why, the market is always right for the technicals, and "probability" is such a misnomer, as probabilities rest firmly on sentiment, which does not lend itself to accurate measurement.
cheers d998
The business has an intrinsic value, that is calculated from the financial statements. This is while open to certain inexactitudes, is nevertheless based on factual information from which an intrinsic value can be calculated.
The "Market" will also, via a quoted price, place a valuation on the business, or stock.
When the market is "inefficient" this quoted price will differ from the intrinsic valuation. It is at this point a position can safely be taken as the markets valuation will be based on psychological factors, emotions, perceptions.
The intrinsic valuation is based on factual information gleaned from the financial statements, and independant of market psychological influences, hence no stoploss required. Fundies shall profit from the markets folly, not partake in the folly.
Technical analysis, however has no such fallback, as there is no attempt to value, no attempt to measure "inefficiency", simply to time the entry, and ride the momentum this is why, the market is always right for the technicals, and "probability" is such a misnomer, as probabilities rest firmly on sentiment, which does not lend itself to accurate measurement.
cheers d998
Mr D,
You're really not helping much in this discussions when you keep using misleading comments
todays post from you......"hence no stoploss required"
and yet back up this thread I have described your stop loss and you replied...."spot on"
Why do you keep making this statement..what sort of comfort blanket is it offering you ?
No matter... I still have not done with prior discussion on comparison of methodolgy...have you got the references for the handful of FA traders you supplied ? I will try to find time to come up with some of similar ilk from other methodologies ...
"Technical analysis, however has no such fallback, as there is no attempt to value, no attempt to measure "inefficiency", simply to time the entry, and ride the momentum this is why, the market is always right for the technicals, and "probability" is such a misnomer, as probabilities rest firmly on sentiment, which does not lend itself to accurate measurement."...
I'm not sure I have the will to keep on with this ..but just one last go ...you are not on your own planet...at some point if you wish to profit a large enough portion of the market is going to have to agree with you...arguably when that portion becomes too large you are going to see that reflected in your fundamental data and you will be out of that trade and who will you be selling to...in your terms I suspect you mean the 'herd' ..the irrational ....big problem with that argument though for you..do you see it yet..may be not so I will help...the 'herd' are the 10's of millions who 'blindly' put their money under third party management ..but historically this third party management has been fundie managed investment funds and even though there is more TA practitioners in those today than there used to be they are still not overwhelmingly TA ...and there is your problem...if FA was so good you would be 'dead' in the water...
Replies based on TW2 membership is not going to give you the ammo on this one...most of the memebership we don't know anything about..they don't contribute other than to read ..and even then they are an irrelevant drop in the bucket when compared to the real money that drives the markets..the funds !
No, the answer is still the same ..use whatever methodology you want ,but make sure it incorporates a winning strategy (or more than one) and then control the only thing you can control ...yourself ...choice of methodology is the least important factor in the equation.
Charlie ,
you reference to the return made by TA traders with limited trading funds is not a like for like comparison..far from it..
The examples given by MR D are based on huge sums applied over a long timeframe...yours are not and can never be ..think abou it....50% pm on say £40,000 ..run a compound formula on it and you will see how rediculous the output is ...no your figures may be correct ,but if all of the accumulated funds were brought to bear that return would plummet ..the size would ensure that and you must know that don't you ?
You're really not helping much in this discussions when you keep using misleading comments
todays post from you......"hence no stoploss required"
and yet back up this thread I have described your stop loss and you replied...."spot on"
Why do you keep making this statement..what sort of comfort blanket is it offering you ?
No matter... I still have not done with prior discussion on comparison of methodolgy...have you got the references for the handful of FA traders you supplied ? I will try to find time to come up with some of similar ilk from other methodologies ...
"Technical analysis, however has no such fallback, as there is no attempt to value, no attempt to measure "inefficiency", simply to time the entry, and ride the momentum this is why, the market is always right for the technicals, and "probability" is such a misnomer, as probabilities rest firmly on sentiment, which does not lend itself to accurate measurement."...
I'm not sure I have the will to keep on with this ..but just one last go ...you are not on your own planet...at some point if you wish to profit a large enough portion of the market is going to have to agree with you...arguably when that portion becomes too large you are going to see that reflected in your fundamental data and you will be out of that trade and who will you be selling to...in your terms I suspect you mean the 'herd' ..the irrational ....big problem with that argument though for you..do you see it yet..may be not so I will help...the 'herd' are the 10's of millions who 'blindly' put their money under third party management ..but historically this third party management has been fundie managed investment funds and even though there is more TA practitioners in those today than there used to be they are still not overwhelmingly TA ...and there is your problem...if FA was so good you would be 'dead' in the water...
Replies based on TW2 membership is not going to give you the ammo on this one...most of the memebership we don't know anything about..they don't contribute other than to read ..and even then they are an irrelevant drop in the bucket when compared to the real money that drives the markets..the funds !
No, the answer is still the same ..use whatever methodology you want ,but make sure it incorporates a winning strategy (or more than one) and then control the only thing you can control ...yourself ...choice of methodology is the least important factor in the equation.
Charlie ,
you reference to the return made by TA traders with limited trading funds is not a like for like comparison..far from it..
The examples given by MR D are based on huge sums applied over a long timeframe...yours are not and can never be ..think abou it....50% pm on say £40,000 ..run a compound formula on it and you will see how rediculous the output is ...no your figures may be correct ,but if all of the accumulated funds were brought to bear that return would plummet ..the size would ensure that and you must know that don't you ?
chump
I tend to use it in a technical sense. No-one apart from yourself has differentiated it, and it seemingly adds a layer of complexity to a "general" discussion on efficiency, and inefficiency.
However point taken.
SEC 10K's, audited returns and annual reports.
Exactly.............and what do the herd watch?
They watch the short-term sentiment, however they measure that.
And when the short term sentiment improves, suddenly, what was out of favour, for whatever reason, is now flavour of the month again.
This assumes of course that the business is solid.
However in workouts, sentiment etc, is irrelevant, only in generals, does this exert an influence
Agreed, I simply said it would be interesting if honest answers could be elicited, that it would provide potentially a snapshot, of the market.
Here I disagree.
The methodology is of over-riding import. Far more important than the individual, although individual skill levels on an individual basis will exert an important influence on the results ultimately within the methodology chosen.
cheers d998
I tend to use it in a technical sense. No-one apart from yourself has differentiated it, and it seemingly adds a layer of complexity to a "general" discussion on efficiency, and inefficiency.
However point taken.
SEC 10K's, audited returns and annual reports.
Exactly.............and what do the herd watch?
They watch the short-term sentiment, however they measure that.
And when the short term sentiment improves, suddenly, what was out of favour, for whatever reason, is now flavour of the month again.
This assumes of course that the business is solid.
However in workouts, sentiment etc, is irrelevant, only in generals, does this exert an influence
Agreed, I simply said it would be interesting if honest answers could be elicited, that it would provide potentially a snapshot, of the market.
Here I disagree.
The methodology is of over-riding import. Far more important than the individual, although individual skill levels on an individual basis will exert an important influence on the results ultimately within the methodology chosen.
cheers d998
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