SLAyers' Notes

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Note that the hourly reversed at the upper limit of its range to the tick. Whether or not there is a trade here depends on whether or not the trader was there at the time.

And note that price bounced off the mean of this range a half-hour ago.

Not every one trades the NQ, of course, and not everyone trades an hourly interval. I point out these events to illustrate how AMT works.

Db
 
Db, when price rejects a point like 37.5, do you move down to the 1 min chart and wait for price to print below the bar that hit 37.5? Do you wait for price to come off of 37.5 a tick? At what point do you decide it's time to short?

In concert with what Gringo posted, if you've learned the lessons taught in the primer, it doesn't matter. However, if you're still concerned about loss and don't yet know how to assess risk, much less assume whatever risk you've assessed, then stick with the primer until you're ready to move on.

In this case, anywhere below 37.5 is fine as long as the trader understands where the danger point lies and is willing to assume the risk between that point and whatever point he enters. If he isn't, then there's no trade.

Db
 
Could you elaborate on the danger point, I've seen it mentioned a few times but not sure about its meaning?
 
From the attic:

A line chart is suggested only because the usual charting sites don't offer tick charts. And even some charting programs don't offer the tick option unless you pay extra for it. But a line chart does nothing except connect selected price points -- high, low, close, hi/lo avg -- with a line.

Wyckoff, of course, did not maintain intraday bar charts. How could he? But then maintaining intraday bar charts is a relatively new phenomenon. Unless he was scalping, he'd find his spot on daily charts, then monitor the intraday action in order to get as close as possible to the point where the stock was "ready" to move and where risk would be minimized, but he wouldn't be using charts; he'd be using P&F, or just keeping track in his head.

In other words, he'd know, as in the case of JPM, that 25.5 was important. If he was going to take his position intraday, he'd then watch what traders did when price approached that level. He'd note where price was straining to advance. He'd watch the activity to see where the balance between buying pressure and selling pressure lay. He'd then take his position just under that point where price kept "hitting a wall". The idea of waiting for the clock to tick over 5 minutes or 15 minutes before he opened his position would have seemed ludicrous to him, much less wait an hour. What would be the purpose? There is, after all, no "close" during the day, but rather a continuous flow of trading activity and price movement.

So why didn't Wyckoff use line charts rather than bar charts for his daily record-keeping? They certainly would have been simpler and faster. But there is a lot of information contained within that daily bar. If you're listening to the market's story, each bar will tell you something of the balance of power between buyers and sellers and how hard each of them has tried to advance price or pull it back. Wyckoff understood the inescapable fact of continuous price flow. When he looked at a bar, he saw not a bar as a finished product but the waves and currents and eddies of buying and selling pressure that created the bar. If you want to be fanciful, it was not a stick of dead wood with a bump on it here and there but rather a "flash" stick. The bar, for him, was nothing more than a summary of what buyers and sellers did to create it, nor did it have any particular importance beyond its place in the continuous flow of trading activity and price movement. As long as one is sensitive to this flow and in synch with it, he can apply W's approach to his trading without using bars at all, or even charts.

Since intraday bar charts have been around for a generation, those who are less than middle-aged may have difficulty seeing price movement in any other way. Line charts are merely a bridge to the realm of continuous price movement. Your charting program may provide several options -- line on close or open or high or low or a high/low average or a high/low/close average or whatever -- but which you choose is largely irrelevant, including the interval on which the line is based: tick, minute, hour, and so forth. To attach too much importance to how the line is plotted is to generate the same mystique and pseudo-importance that is attached to the bar.

It's not about jogging from side to side for five minutes or fifteen minutes or an hour then jumping ahead and running side to side for another five or fifteen minutes or hour. It's about putting one foot in front of the other, again and again, maybe forward, maybe angling this way or that, maybe turning around and returning to the starting point, but always moving, always one foot in front of the other, sometimes slower, sometimes faster, but always moving.
 
Db,

Given the spike and retreat on today's Apple news after the close, I was going to ask you what the PA trader makes of “news driven” moves and whether it's best to stay clear of them. Then it occurred to me that labeling a move “news driven” doesn’t help you. Observing the level where price stalled and that it quickly returned into the range, on the other hand, actually tells you something. ?

Wyckoff says "You need pay no attention to the news, earnings, dividend rates or statements of corporations." Does "pay no attention" also apply to the likelihood of increased volatility on days like today? Is any "extra" caution required around events like this?

Hope that makes some sense. Thanks.
 
If you mean the small, retail, daytrading PA trader, nobody cares what he makes of it, particularly those with the wherewithal to move price. For all intents and purposes, he's a dust mite.

Read "Demand/Supply" again from The Burrow section of the book. The effort to break out of the range occurred last Friday. However, the buying interest was insufficient to do more than cover the selling that always occurs during such breakouts. Therefore, price returned to the range. What will be important now is what happens at 112.

Db
 
Tested July high (77.25) yesterday afternoon (78.25). This is a test that even weekly traders see.

Db
 
Those who are trading this will have noted that the daily is flirting with both the July high and the most recent demand line. The hourly has broken it. If one doesn't know what to do with all this, review "Trading Opportunities" on p. 50, Notes.

Db
 
Incidentally, it doesn't pay to be jingoistic when choosing trading instruments. This is a particularly good time to be tracking and comparing the NQ, DAX, CAC40 and FTSE to see which provides the best trading opportunities and which tends to be the most slippery.

Db
 
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Hey DB,

I really like the stuff you're putting forward here, the principles are simple, but not easy. I'm trying to apply them and I'm confident of success with experience (my anticipation of price movement seems correct, timing and trade management needs work).

If I may ask, how do you think hft trading affects this approach? Is market manipulation irrelevant because of the pure reaction to price trading this way? Is it an opportunity to recognise and take advantage of? Or is hft a way you're going to get completed shafted and done over by those dirty little PhD grads?

Appreciate your thoughts.
 
Hey DB,

I really like the stuff you're putting forward here, the principles are simple, but not easy. I'm trying to apply them and I'm confident of success with experience (my anticipation of price movement seems correct, timing and trade management needs work).

If I may ask, how do you think hft trading affects this approach? Is market manipulation irrelevant because of the pure reaction to price trading this way? Is it an opportunity to recognise and take advantage of? Or is hft a way you're going to get completed shafted and done over by those dirty little PhD grads?

Appreciate your thoughts.

HFT, if it is of any concern to anybody, is of concern only to scalpers. But by and large it is a boogeyman, used as a rationalization for some traders' failures to properly prepare, execute, and manage their trades. Ditto market makers, specialists, brokers, "mentors", and so on. It's always somebody else's fault.

What matters is price movement. Who or what is moving it is irrelevant. Accepting this relieves the trader of a great deal of doubt, confusion, and hesitation. If price behaves as expected, great. If it doesn't, get out. The more one thinks about it, the more likely he is to make the wrong choices.

Db
 
I show high of 86 also on ToS. Wonder why the discrepancy?

But my mobile ToS shows 77.25, that's odd. Different data feeds.

Some providers don't calculate the rollover adjustments correctly. Or they just don't care. If ever in doubt, just check the CME figures.

Db
 

Thanks for the Friday charts, Db. Very helpful to see the danger points and rationale for holding the short through the break of the SL.

If you're trading the hourly and weren’t already long Thursday, would you have gone long at 82-85 (break of R and retracement) per AMT? Then reversed to short on the break of the demand line per SLA?

Was there anything in the context provided by the daily that would have prevented taking the long -- or is that the price of admission?
 
If one were neutral, buying the tentative RET after the BO to an ATH would be legitimate, but the RET was never confirmed, so the rational trader would be ready for a DOG.

The rapid failure of the thrust should be enough cold water. If not, the loss would be minimal and more than made up for by the subsequent 40+ pt decline.

Db
 
Db,
When trading shorter time frames, 30 min, 15 and 5, I assume you still take longer term time frames into account? A very good short or long trade can look great until do span out into longer frames. How much confluence do you look for if it's overbought on the 30 min but undersold on the daily?
 
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