Simple Equation...?

[Bluedot]

I am probably trying to be to simple here but wonder if someone might be able to help.
Keeping things simple, supposing I had 2 days of ftse data.
The first day shows the ftse up 2 points after one hour and at the end of the day the ftse is up (based on its start day price).
The second day shows the ftse down 1 point after one hours trading but the ftse is also up at the end of the day.
In very simple terms, is there an equation that could give a % chance of whether the ftse will be up or down based on the first hours trading ? I could do a simple equation based on the logic of the first hour being either up or down but I would prefer to use an equation that brings into accoutn the number of points the ftse moved.

Thanks
Jon

 

[options]

A rough equation would be:

Dow futures up + ftse futures up = ftse cash up.

 

[damianoakley]

I am probably trying to be to simple here but wonder if someone might be able to help.
Keeping things simple, supposing I had 2 days of ftse data.
The first day shows the ftse up 2 points after one hour and at the end of the day the ftse is up (based on its start day price).
The second day shows the ftse down 1 point after one hours trading but the ftse is also up at the end of the day.
In very simple terms, is there an equation that could give a % chance of whether the ftse will be up or down based on the first hours trading ? I could do a simple equation based on the logic of the first hour being either up or down but I would prefer to use an equation that brings into accoutn the number of points the ftse moved.

Thanks
Jon

Hi Bluedot,

Personally, I would say be careful of trying to predict what the market is about to do.

The market tends to do what it likes and often defies all logic and reason !


Thanks

Damian

 

[firewalker99]

I am probably trying to be to simple here but wonder if someone might be able to help.
Keeping things simple, supposing I had 2 days of ftse data.
The first day shows the ftse up 2 points after one hour and at the end of the day the ftse is up (based on its start day price).
The second day shows the ftse down 1 point after one hours trading but the ftse is also up at the end of the day.
In very simple terms, is there an equation that could give a % chance of whether the ftse will be up or down based on the first hours trading ? I could do a simple equation based on the logic of the first hour being either up or down but I would prefer to use an equation that brings into accoutn the number of points the ftse moved.

Thanks
Jon

Even if it were that simple, are you going to trade on the belief or probability that the market may be up by the end of the day, but intraday might go against you 100 points?