BeginnerJoe
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Your are likely to have 75%+ loosers. Try it and see. My gut says so. Simple truth is there is no superior random to be had.
Your are likely to have 75%+ loosers. Try it and see. My gut says so. Simple truth is there is no superior random to be had.
L
Liquid validity
OK, I'll give you that, you are persistent
Actually, truth be told, you are quite correct not to believe anything anyone says.
As you seem interested, literally try it yourself:
NinjaTrader 7 Tips - How To Download Market Replay Data - YouTube
Advanced Trade Management Level 1 - NinjaTrader Training - 3/14/2012 - YouTube
Advanced Trade Management Level 2 - NinjaTrader Training - 12/29/2011 - YouTube
Thats instructions for DLing free replay data from ninja trader.
Download currency data as futures data seems borked - won't connect.
Restart NT.
Flip your coins / excel rand or whatever.
Experiment with different fixed stops and targets and trailing stops.
Then try scaling in and out.
Its been said numerous times, but random coin flipping is not the
crucial ingredient.
Its the trade management parameters that are the key.
The replay data speeds up the process.
You may learn something from it, even if its that you prefer a more
accurate, analytical approach as shown by Robster.
Balls in your court Joe, you do the work, I'm not going to
Others may find it useful so its no loss.
robster970
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You ok if I do a fairly haughty PM to you over the W/E? I want to pull my trading apart and needs some advice from you.
L
Liquid validity
Huh, you want my advice?Not quite sure what you think I can offer you based on your approach,
But I know you know the score, so I don't see any harm as a one off.
Fire away
robster970
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Not quite sure what you think I can offer you based on your approach,
But I know you know the score, so I don't see any harm as a one off.
Fire away
Don't worry - it's not about the nature of discretionary trading - it's about how to analyse empirically the nature of price movement on ES using daily settlement price with S&P500 call/put options. This thread has got me thinking about how to measure something which is implicit in my trading - I would like to understand it further
I had a lightbulb moment.
L
Liquid validity
Don't worry - it's not about the nature of discretionary trading - it's about how to analyse empirically the nature of price movement on ES using daily settlement price with S&P500 call/put options. This thread has got me thinking about how to measure something which is implicit in my trading - I would like to understand it further
To be perfectly blunt, I can already tell you I have no idea.I am at the more basic end of this stuff.
I do know Ninja is not the best platform for correlation testing,
that much I can tell you...
TBH I picked Ninja cause it looked like the easiest option for a simplistic approach.
It does have flaws and weaknesses for more complex testing.
Sorry I can't be of more help
BeginnerJoe
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OK, I'll give you that, you are persistent
Actually, truth be told, you are quite correct not to believe anything anyone says.
As you seem interested, literally try it yourself:
I didn't intentionally give the impression I was interested. My gut and experience is telling me coin tossing is bunk - in that it will fail with significantly greater than 50% probability along with all other methods. So I am not going to waste my time testing against dead data - dead as in not capable of reacting to trade actions.
I don't believe in the utility of back testing because a live market would react to your trades, be they entered through coin tossing or any other methods. It is not possible to simulate this reaction using static data.
The only proof I will find convincing is live trading using coin tossing. The size of the trade is not important, be it 1/1000th of a penny or £10,000. The market reaction to both will be similar.
So what exactly is the claim here ? That coin tossing is as good as any other method (my personal preference would be to phrase this more accurately as "coin tossing is as *bad* as any other method"), or that it is better than other methods ? If former, I can concur in that it will fail like other methods - the market reaction will ensure of it. If the claim is the latter, then someone aught to demonstrate with a micro account. I won't be doing it because the concept goes against every grain in my body.
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L
Liquid validity
well that was sadly predictable.FFS joe, you don't get it do you.
You test it, you do the work.
Whether its this or something else.
Fkin lazy b'stard
BeginnerJoe
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FFS joe, you don't get it do you.
You test it, you do the work.
Whether its this or something else.
Fkin lazy b'stard
It's more usual for the claimant to do the proving. Since the claimant(s) have been on this forum for a while, perhaps they have a thread containing the proof to their claim ?
L
Liquid validity
I'm not claiming anything.
I'm hinting at how you could start your own research.
Really you are just hanging around on these boards in the vain hope that someone
is going to hand you this:
When will it dawn on you, it doesn't f**king work like that
Try doing your own work and formulating your own thoughts...
BeginnerJoe
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I'm not claiming anything.
I'm hinting at how you could start your own research.
Really you are just hanging around on these boards in the vain hope that someone
is going to hand you this:
When will it dawn on you, it doesn't f**king work like that
Try doing your own work and formulating your own thoughts...
You might have noticed I am unbelievably resistant to all other people's ideas. So I don't understand why I would then go take something that someone might hand it to me ? Perhaps you got the wrong guy. I am not hanging around in this forum. I am playing here and several other forums of different fields while I trade.
But I am always up for a challenge. I will trade this coin tossing bollox as a demonstration that it is bunk. Now, the claimants should define how this coin tossing be traded and what the expected outcome would be. I will trade it in the live market and post up the results for all to see.
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L
Liquid validity
Well done you
You will have to work out the finer details yourself.
Refer back to my earlier post about fixed targets and stops, trailing stops etc.
You are right, though, coin tossing is bo11ox, quite a paradox...
Its purely about how you manage the trade once in.
Think for yourself about how you will achieve that.
robster970
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I am at the more basic end of this stuff.
I'll PM you anyway - I don't mind sharing. Suspect I might need to download something like R to do what I want to do but some pointers from you would be good.
You can be such a knob sometimes Joe. I see a lot of good people trying to help you and you frequently just throw it in their faces. There is a principle inside random entry systems that is at the core of any form of profitable trading yet you have chosen to focus on the burden of proof instead of thinking for yourself about whether there is any merit.
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BeginnerJoe
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I don't think, I observe. My observation says there is no merit.
L
Liquid validity
TBH I was thinking matlab or R as well.
I have very little experience there.
I probably should do something about that - although its a brain ache...
L
Liquid validity
robster970
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Good luck Joe. Whatever you do in life, you will be the only person holding you back.
BeginnerJoe
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Yes, I am more of a lone ranger kinda guy.
As for other people trying to help me, I never noticed. The only help I did notice was from Barjon who stated one of the more classic techniques. But I have specific goals in my trading. Though good his technique didn't interest me.
robster970
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It's a real shame Joe. You should listen sometimes. Most of us kind of like you for reasons that are almost unfathomable and some of the 'smarter' end of the regular posters keep throwing you pointers that you just dismiss. It is true that you have to find your own way but the basics are common and in the same way we troll system sellers/signal services/idiots we also support those who are genuinely interested in learning how to do this. Despite your rather unusual habit of rejecting everything, people still try to help you because you fall into the latter group.
Teh Hare tried to point you at a nugget of truth about price movement that is revealed by a random entry system. Yet you chose to focus on the method rather than the intrinsic quality it can reveal. You haven't done any real experimenting with random entry to understand what this quality/phenomena is. Nevertheless you just dismiss it.
BeginnerJoe
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It's a real shame Joe. You should listen sometimes. Most of us kind of like you for reasons that are almost unfathomable and some of the 'smarter' end of the regular posters keep throwing you pointers that you just dismiss. It is true that you have to find your own way but the basics are common and in the same way we troll system sellers/signal services/idiots we also support those who are genuinely interested in learning how to do this. Despite your rather unusual habit of rejecting everything, people still try to help you because you fall into the latter group.
Teh Hare tried to point you at a nugget of truth about price movement that is revealed by a random entry system. Yet you chose to focus on the method rather than the intrinsic quality it can reveal. You haven't done any real experimenting with random entry to understand what this quality/phenomena is. Nevertheless you just dismiss it.
Coin tossing doesn't fit my world view and it doesn't fit my gut. So I have no way to take it in. To me, the market is not random. Therefore random entry is not useful. Perhaps the hare was too subtle with his help given his need to never contribute. So I never picked it up.
See my attempts in entering eurjpy recently. It was very deliberate with specific goal in mind while foregoing some quite reasonable pips. My regret now is not persisting with my aims. Random entry would have no place for this kind of trading.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-113.html#post2059076
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex/162600-box-breakout-pro-scalping-114.html#post2059370
