Shorting EUR/USD

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Judith3113

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Does anyone else not see the shorting EUR/USD as a no brainer holding into the newyear and even beyond?
 
Most are predicting 1.20 euro next year...understand what your saying ..but the party is over in Europe and its pretty obvious...the markets are not pleased with the ECB's plans....technical analysis and fundamental analysis obvious need to be applied..but common sense, intuition and life experience tell me Im going to hold my short positions for the long run....did great in the stock market using these skills....to each his own..
 
Short if you want, but be aware it can still very sharply rebound. Set your risk limit.

Imo, we have a bottom, or near to it. I wouldn't personally short it. To each his own.
 
I wont be going short yet, 13000 is a very strong support... once thats broken properly i may short
 
Judith3113 said:
Most are predicting 1.20 euro next year...understand what your saying ..but the party is over in Europe and its pretty obvious...the markets are not pleased with the ECB's plans....technical analysis and fundamental analysis obvious need to be applied..but common sense, intuition and life experience tell me Im going to hold my short positions for the long run....did great in the stock market using these skills....to each his own..
Click to expand...

I'm expecting 1.20 however, I would take it one step at a time... Markets do not move in straight lines.

More downside for the Euro should definitely be pencilled in. Next year will be the determining factor

1.28 is the next line in the sand to breach before then some upside is a possibility perhaps imo.

Depends on your time frame and trading style. As you say what ever rocks your world go with it...
 
If I were to take a longer term short position then from here I'd like to first see a pullback to about 1.3200 as many shorts will take profits before the holiday. If you are into fibs, the 23.6 fib retracement from the high on 10/27/11 is about 1.3250.

Peter
 
Thank you for your replies...I will be doing quite a bitof research over the holidays..its a nice gap of time to reevealuate whats happening in the market and position oneself....Can anyone of you tell if you've beenwith your broker long enough to be really pleased with their service. Many thanks.
 
Judith3113 said:
Thank you for your replies...I will be doing quite a bitof research over the holidays..its a nice gap of time to reevealuate whats happening in the market and position oneself....Can anyone of you tell if you've beenwith your broker long enough to be really pleased with their service. Many thanks.
Click to expand...

I've tried many brokers and IG Index have been the best, they offer CFD's and Spread Betting. If you were going to take a short position and hold for a long time i think that it would make sense to use a Spreadbet service as it's tax free etc

I'm looking forward to see what will happen in the new year, can you imagine we had germany go back to DM's? Even better if we had the opportunity to short EUR/DM

:LOL:
 
long term position you want to use CMC as you can reduce funding costs right down to zero by increasing margin.

also, any sort of printing scenario would see the EURUSD soar, you would need to hedge for that, but long gold is not a particularly attractive place right now
 
RWH TROLL says: it's not a no brainer, all forecasts of growth and other factors are already priced into the currency pair it's just moving completely randomly lolkthxbai.

To be honest I'm not sure which way it will go from a fundamental view so I have no idea which signals to start looking for, hence until the situation becomes a bit more clear i'm not trading the pair.
 
The eurusd has tanked in the last 6 months. You are quite right that jumping on the train now is a no brainer. If you were to do that now based upon what "everybody is saying" then you have NO BRAINS. Are you female by chance? If so then that is an acceptable excuse.
 
Last edited:
Judith3113 said:
Does anyone else not see the shorting EUR/USD as a no brainer holding into the newyear and even beyond?
Click to expand...
Judith,
I will agree on what you are predicting for the euro based on technical basis,, and that is
-- the moving averages are definately pointing down on the daily and weekly.
-- If we apply fib extension from the high of 4/5 to the low of 23/5 then the lower top of 7/6 we found that the market found great support on the 161.8% on the 4/10 which is also ( for the GANN followers) its time by degrees 5 mnths .
( PLS note i am NOT using a fib price tool and using its extention price,,, i am using the fib extention tool which uses 3 price points ,,,, meaning ,, it is comparing the new run in percentage to the first run down ,, and i am surprised the 100% ( repeating range ) did NOT hold , BUT the market was held by the 100 SMA on the weekly chart )
-- since then the market rallied from the 161.8 level up 61.8% of that full range down from 4/5 back to the 27/10 top which was a perfect orderly move which is normally very highly expected .
--- NOW the interesting part here is,, the market DID break the 161.8 extension on the way down on the retest of that LOW ,, so in reality we need to keep an eye on it as it is NOT a good sign on the strength side of things,,and from my experience IF it breaks the 161.8 then MOST of the time it can go to 261.8 which will be AROUND the zone of 2100 's range ,, BUT do NOT discount the 200% level ,,which can prove a strong support and many times it has supported the market ,, which is at around the 2700 's range which will be the first place i will keep an eye on ,
I hope i was clearly understood , IF anything is NOT clear pls feel free to email me and will be more than happy to explaine it further ,,, and this was my comment to the current situation,,,
After all the market is ALWAYS right ,, SO all we can do is,, keep our eyes open and keep the stop losses in place .
 
wackypete2 said:
If I were to take a longer term short position then from here I'd like to first see a pullback to about 1.3200 as many shorts will take profits before the holiday. If you are into fibs, the 23.6 fib retracement from the high on 10/27/11 is about 1.3250.

Peter
Click to expand...

Here's the retrace I was looking for, almost exactly to the pip. Going down from here.
 

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George A said:
Judith,
I will agree on what you are predicting for the euro based on technical basis,, and that is
-- the moving averages are definately pointing down on the daily and weekly.
-- If we apply fib extension from the high of 4/5 to the low of 23/5 then the lower top of 7/6 we found that the market found great support on the 161.8% on the 4/10 which is also ( for the GANN followers) its time by degrees 5 mnths .
( PLS note i am NOT using a fib price tool and using its extention price,,, i am using the fib extention tool which uses 3 price points ,,,, meaning ,, it is comparing the new run in percentage to the first run down ,, and i am surprised the 100% ( repeating range ) did NOT hold , BUT the market was held by the 100 SMA on the weekly chart )
-- since then the market rallied from the 161.8 level up 61.8% of that full range down from 4/5 back to the 27/10 top which was a perfect orderly move which is normally very highly expected .
--- NOW the interesting part here is,, the market DID break the 161.8 extension on the way down on the retest of that LOW ,, so in reality we need to keep an eye on it as it is NOT a good sign on the strength side of things,,and from my experience IF it breaks the 161.8 then MOST of the time it can go to 261.8 which will be AROUND the zone of 2100 's range ,, BUT do NOT discount the 200% level ,,which can prove a strong support and many times it has supported the market ,, which is at around the 2700 's range which will be the first place i will keep an eye on ,
I hope i was clearly understood , IF anything is NOT clear pls feel free to email me and will be more than happy to explaine it further ,,, and this was my comment to the current situation,,,
After all the market is ALWAYS right ,, SO all we can do is,, keep our eyes open and keep the stop losses in place .
Click to expand...

Hey George,

Wow, thank you for your reply. This is really helpful. I will take a look at all you said and the tools you use. I'll email you back with a few questions, as I consider all you have said.

Kind regards,

J
 
Greece will be booted out some time next year..........EUR/USD will then rise........but I could be wrong.
 
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