Short short short

Trader6868

Junior member
43 0
My Port are mainly short selling: AAPL, GOOG, IBM, GS, GE, DIS, BAC, MS, HON, TWX except INTC (long buy)

As I predict in last week, the market will temporarily bounce back and now it continues to turn down again (like DEAD CAT BOUNCE)....

I shorted by yesterday, some other stocks (BAC, TWX, GS) I shorted sell by early this week

INTC long buys about 19.3x
 
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Roonbox

Junior member
25 6
My Port are mainly short selling: AAPL, GOOG, IBM, GS, GE, DIS, BAC, MS, HON, TWX except INTC (long buy)

As I predict in last week, the market will temporarily bounce back and now it continues to turn down again (like DEAD CAT BOUNCE)....

I shorted by yesterday, some other stocks (BAC, TWX, GS) I shorted sell by early this week

INTC long buys about 19.3x

I have been short the Nasdaq for a while now, Mine is a longer term trade, possibly for the next year...

I see things going much lower
 

Trader6868

Junior member
43 0
I have been short the Nasdaq for a while now, Mine is a longer term trade, possibly for the next year...

I see things going much lower

(y)

As my analysis from technical viewpoint, DJ is now in V wave of supercycle (V) wave...The V wave pattern is expected to be ending diagonal which now starts forming wave 4 belong to wave V.
 

Roonbox

Junior member
25 6
(y)

As my analysis from technical viewpoint, DJ is now in V wave of supercycle (V) wave...The V wave pattern is expected to be ending diagonal which now starts forming wave 4 belong to wave V.

can you go into a little more detail about what your expecting?

I don't do much technical analysis
 

Trader6868

Junior member
43 0
can you go into a little more detail about what your expecting?

I don't do much technical analysis

You can see the picture below

As my analysis from technical viewpoint, DJ is now in V wave of supercycle (V) wave...The V wave pattern is expected to be ending diagonal which now starts forming wave 4 belong to wave V.

DJ is now under down trend. It is testing again the resistant trendline after break down below this line. Expecting that it will fail to jump back above the trendline.

The first target is 12K and the 2nd one is 11K
 

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  • DJ 30 on Dec 29.jpg
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Joules MM1

Established member
645 142
wave II is closed....lower than the sart of wave I indicates that wave (V) can be an ending diagonal wedge

Ralphs turning over in his grave.....he has a categoric rule; wave two of same degree or higher may not go beyond the start of wave one or you are looking at a different ball game even in a pro-regressive structure wave 2 cannot recede beyond wave one.....

and you are listed as a broker.......amazing.......
 

Joules MM1

Established member
645 142
wave II is closed....lower than the sart of wave I indicates that wave (V) can be an ending diagonal wedge

Hope to get your judgments

the only time you can clearly state that you are seening an ending diagonal wedge is with two aspects of trend:

1 that the pattern has broken down to 3's (up-down-up x 2 for wave 1, same wave 2 and same wave 3, 4 and 5)

2 that wave four does not recede beyone wave two of same degree

if youre going to call yourself a broker in a chat site such as this, at least get your regime correct
 

Joules MM1

Established member
645 142
I have been short the Nasdaq for a while now, Mine is a longer term trade, possibly for the next year...

I see things going much lower

based on what pretext?

I don't do much technical analysis

i'm thinking
probably not much in the way of risk management either
except maybe a bloated idea that being short is smart idea .....welcome to the world of killer margin......it's like pacman....chomp chomp chomp
 

Roonbox

Junior member
25 6
based on what pretext?



i'm thinking except maybe a bloated idea that being short is smart idea .....welcome to the world of killer margin......it's like pacman....chomp chomp chomp

I'm not sure where your coming from with this attack, I have stops in place, I'm not a short term trader, and I've been doing this for 8 years successfully.
 

Joules MM1

Established member
645 142
I'm not sure where your coming from with this attack, I have stops in place, I'm not a short term trader, and I've been doing this for 8 years successfully.

thing is, with elliott , the rules are not aspecific, they are specific.....

you havent quoted any ratios, although in fairness, at this point in the game that is not possible as the pattern youre looking for simply hasnt progressed enough to allow thrust measurements or even a zone for the pattern itself to terminate.....you could be looking at ratio extensions of the previous weekly moves and plot them for the people viewing your work.....and that's the jist of my response, there are eyes on your work, young eyes.....and perpetuating weak round-aboutish ideas on trade may be fine for you but unless youre here to contribute in a practical way, then, what for?

of the wide list of patterns that Elliott put into text, youre looking for a specific set-up without even getting the bulk of the pattern into existence

you can replace the money, you cannot replace the time

an ending diagonal wedge can thrust a very long way.....let's say youre using, a standard reference, 2% of capital for your position, let's say the third person reading this is also using that % of their capital and the sell-to-open position is active....let's say the DJIND moves another 400-800 points north, moving in 3 and confirming your "analysis"......that's a lot of capital tied up to protect a position that, right now, you have no clear idea of a termination......puting aside that an ending diagonal wedge can play out over several months

short term trading is relative expression.....relative to the discipline and capital involved, relative to the future playing out on a forward view that has yet to even get close to confirmation

all 'counts' require an alternate count......without one the trader is simply protecting an emotional logic hiding behind technical gobbeldygook.....a one-sided view.....lacking specificity in protection of capital but (ab)using that specificity in the idea it'll make money....


arbitrary lines on the charts are also not within the confines of Elliott work and frankly less than even an orthodox placement.....this is your chart:


the last major peak was a fracca under 14200 ...most Elliotticians agree that we're in a very large clyclical bounce as diplayed by the overlapping nature of the uptrend and how well the overall pattern fits a counter trend rally.....well, that's great....fine...so, exactly, how far can a the pattern move beyond that 2007 high and it mean something significant? bare with me here (third reader) because under the auspice of Elliott a pattern can move considerably beyond the altime high in any instrument and not, that's not, fail the counter-trend rally scenario as in a "flat" pattern...... there are no rules in any regime (that i'm ware of) that say a new altime high extenguishes the bounce technicals or it's validity as a bounce....under Elliott a B wave can move well beyond the previous altime high, a false break-out, a head fake, central-bank-credit-debt-driven-whatever-the-reason and then that expanding pattern can collapse, hurting the ardent bulls and the ardent bears

Tony LaPorta, a long standing pit trader of the SPX and treasuries recently commented via mrtopstep of the CME group
"price can go wherever it wants to go because it can"

you see, the point is, you must have a plan that allows the ideas your using to work in full circle, where to get in, where to get out and a valid set of rules for everything in between.....you can, eventually, replace the money, you cannot replace the time
 
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Trader6868

Junior member
43 0
the only time you can clearly state that you are seening an ending diagonal wedge is with two aspects of trend:

1 that the pattern has broken down to 3's (up-down-up x 2 for wave 1, same wave 2 and same wave 3, 4 and 5)

2 that wave four does not recede beyone wave two of same degree

if youre going to call yourself a broker in a chat site such as this, at least get your regime correct

Yes, Elliot wave usually doesn't allow us the right answer for the wave, but it can help us reject the improbable cases...

Even though Elliott wave can be counted inexactly, the direction is mostly correct

Thus, I think that either the wave now is wave IV of wave (V) or it is correction wave C (see the picture)

:cheesy:
 

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