S&P to hit 450? - SocGen

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minimal

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Morning all,

This morning on the tube making my way to the office, I was reading the FT and this article came to my attention. Its a article regarding a super bear strategist at SocGen in which is predicts the S&P 500 to hit a low of 450 which were last seen in 1982. I am personally a bear but not to this level, I fully agree with him about equities not following suite with treasury yields and I except soon to see leg down in equities. but not to 450!

This reminds me a lot of Bob Janjuah who said the S&P would hit into the 800's back in May time. At the time, I also thought this was completely out of the question but now I am opening my mind to the possibility. Maybe 6 months down the line I may be open to 450?

I have found the article on the FT site, link is here : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e5bd894-b11f-11df-bce8-00144feabdc0.html

Cheers,
Minimal
 
"It has been a difficult road for me personally for the last 14 years during which I have been laughed at......."

So he has been wrong for the last 14 years. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
 
If that story had been in the Sun it would have definately been a signal to go long. Once the crowd has an opinion the market will be sure to move in the opposite direction.
 
They will print more money and more debt to create wealth to chase the markets up.it will make a few knobs like Warren Buffet look clever.

The stock markets only rose cause of money printing , and abolishment of gold standard ,it contributed to raise the stockmarkets and make a few thieves bonus kings.

When it gets to 450 , what will they say about Buffet?If all debt had to be repaid today , where will the stockmarkets be?
 
oildaytrader said:
They will print more money and more debt to create wealth to chase the markets up.it will make a few knobs like Warren Buffet look clever.

The stock markets only rose cause of money printing , and abolishment of gold standard ,it contributed to raise the stockmarkets and make a few thieves bonus kings.

When it gets to 450 , what will they say about Buffet?If all debt had to be repaid today , where will the stockmarkets be?
Click to expand...

not sure how you can call buffet a knob really.

saying "if all debt had to be repaid" is irrelevant. it doesn't......
 
cristiano said:
Yeah, that's right. Warren Buffet is rubbish at investing money. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

If they had not printed so much money ,Coca cola would not have seen the growth cash flow.If Greenspan had not underwritten the Stockmarkets put option at expense of taxpayers, the markets would be at 450.
 
oildaytrader said:
If they had not printed so much money ,Coca cola would not have seen the growth cash flow.If Greenspan had not underwritten the Stockmarkets put option at expense of taxpayers, the markets would be at 450.
Click to expand...

So that makes Warren Buffet a knob?
 
trade what you see. what would you have him do? sit it out? as a mercenary trader i'd have thought you'd agree...
 
minimal said:
a super bear strategist at SocGen in which is predicts the S&P 500 to hit a low of 450 which were last seen in 1982.
Click to expand...


According to yahoo finance it was 450 back in around 1995, back in 1982 it was almost as low as 100!.
 
The stock market boom coincided with the baby boom. At the same time as the baby boom, we also had the international boom. Over the last 40 years the returns have been astronomical. Do the math. Add up how much money a 1000 dollar investment in Mcdonald's would have returned today. You have to add all splits, dividends, etc.. Yahoo finance can give you the true historical quotes.


No the baby boomers are retiring. China is about to become the next Japan. If these booms end, then 450 looks very reasonable.
 
oildaytrader said:
They will print more money and more debt to create wealth to chase the markets up.it will make a few knobs like Warren Buffet look clever.

The stock markets only rose cause of money printing , and abolishment of gold standard ,it contributed to raise the stockmarkets and make a few thieves bonus kings.

When it gets to 450 , what will they say about Buffet?If all debt had to be repaid today , where will the stockmarkets be?
Click to expand...

Since the USA's money is fiat since 1917, then the only way the economy can advance is by inflation. The problem with this is what we are experiencing now. Banks are not loaning money even to people with good credit. Unemployment is so high that the working class money that usually flows through the economy at a rapid pace is hindered by ten percent at present.
 
fantastic4 said:
The stock market boom coincided with the baby boom. At the same time as the baby boom, we also had the international boom. Over the last 40 years the returns have been astronomical. Do the math. Add up how much money a 1000 dollar investment in Mcdonald's would have returned today. You have to add all splits, dividends, etc.. Yahoo finance can give you the true historical quotes.


No the baby boomers are retiring. China is about to become the next Japan. If these booms end, then 450 looks very reasonable.
Click to expand...

When you compare the "astronomical returns" with inflation then you get a basically "0" return (if you are lucky). For example........My best friends granddad told me when we were visiting his house on main street small town USA 27 years ago that he paid 4000 dollars for his house after he got out of the navy after ww2 and now it was worth 200000. If you did the inflation math then he broke even then, but if you did the last five year math then he lost money.
 
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