Roulette & 50/50 Gambling

[KillPhil08]

Recently, I was on a site which explained a simple roulette system; much to do with what is currently beginning discussed in the probablity discussion.

Basically, you choose the lowest odds (or the maximum odd's divided by 2^8) then you put a stake on black or red.

If right then;
place smallest stake again

If wrong then;
double smallest stake on SAME colour until right.

I tried it with £15 quid, managed to make it to £60 in an hour - (very late night ),
but after I hit 9 blacks in a row...which is seriously unlikely, so i deposited some more money then repeated the step. Breaking even/in profit of £45. (With this technique it's probably better to mix it up...say if you get 3 right stakes then switch colour).

Safe to say i'm never doing that again, as always - house always wins.

(tbh the guide i read said to "not be greedy" and "not make over "£200" on the same site (100% profit in the guide)).

What do you guys think? (Please don't mock me for being naive enough to try and beat a casino).



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I want to delete this thread after doing a search for roulette (How?)

 

[arabianights]

It's called the martingale system. Doesn't work.

See also "Gambler's Ruin"

 

[Chorlton]

For a start the title "Roulette & 50/50 Gambling " is misleading and incorrect.

The game of Roulette is not a 50/50 game. It actually has a very small edge in favour of the House and as such if played over the long-term has a NEGATIVE expectancy.

Basically for every £1.00 you risk, you WILL lose 5.4p

Definately not for me !!!

 

[Lee Shepherd]

The 'house' is constantly making sure they are one step ahead of the punter. This is why minimum and maximum stakes are used to give them an edge for this type of play. Casino owners are not stupid gamblers, they are astute business men/women that look to take advantage of those with no sense.
And to others (like me) for entertainment purposes. Gambling should only ever be seen as fun and never a business - unless you set the odds.

 

[Chorlton]

but after I hit 9 blacks in a row...which is seriously unlikely

For argument sake, lets assume that Roulette offers 50/50 outcome(Black or Red) then a losing streak of 16 is actually possible.

Now try your system again with this in mind..........

 

[KillPhil08]

For argument sake, lets assume that Roulette offers 50/50 outcome(Black or Red) then a losing streak of 16 is actually possible.

Now try your system again with this in mind..........

^^ i said i wasn't going to try this again.

Thanks for the wiki link. I don't see any buttons to delete threads?!?

 

[arabianights]

^^ i said i wasn't going to try this again.

Thanks for the wiki link. I don't see any buttons to delete threads?!?

Nope, you have to suffer the ignonimity

Coincidentally my 18 year old brother 'discovered' this system yesterday and called me up breathless about how he won fifty quid. Hopefully I put him right

 

[Masquerade]

Don't bet on Roulette - Blackjack is the most favourable to the player. Alternatively, learn to play poker.

 

[KillPhil08]

Don't bet on Roulette - Blackjack is the most favourable to the player. Alternatively, learn to play poker.

I don't like to steal money off my friends too often

 

[Masquerade]

I don't like to steal money off my friends too often

Simple solution: don't play against friends.

 

[timsk]

It's called the martingale system. Doesn't work.
See also "Gambler's Ruin"

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say that the reason it doesn't work (in casino's) is only because the house has a maximum stake which will, sooner or later, take you out of the game. However, for traders, the maximum stake is the amount of equity in your trading account. So, for the sake of argument, let's say you have a system with a 60% success rate. Your only concern now is the probability of X number of consecutive losses. X will vary according to each individual trader's appetite for risk. The larger X is, the lower the probability. Once you've decided what that limit is, 100:1, 1,000:1 or whatever, you can then work backwards to calculate your initial stake. You then 'know' you'll either:
A. make money . . . or
B. lose the lot but only after the highly unlikely event that you have the maximum number of consecutive losses.
For someone with a small account who's looking to make fast gains and is prepared to blow their account - this might be the way to go. The probability that you'll make money must outweigh the probability of a complete blow up.
As I said at the start, I'm just being the devil's advocate and, doubtless, there are flaws in my thinking . . .

Tim.

 

[arabianights]

The flaw is gambler's ruin.... the market has more money than you sadly.

 

[Chorlton]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here and say that the reason it doesn't work (in casino's) is only because the house has a maximum stake which will, sooner or later, take you out of the game. However, for traders, the maximum stake is the amount of equity in your trading account. So, for the sake of argument, let's say you have a system with a 60% success rate. Your only concern now is the probability of X number of consecutive losses. X will vary according to each individual trader's appetite for risk. The larger X is, the lower the probability. Once you've decided what that limit is, 100:1, 1,000:1 or whatever, you can then work backwards to calculate your initial stake. You then 'know' you'll either:
A. make money . . . or
B. lose the lot but only after the highly unlikely event that you have the maximum number of consecutive losses.
For someone with a small account who's looking to make fast gains and is prepared to blow their account - this might be the way to go. The probability that you'll make money must outweigh the probability of a complete blow up.
As I said at the start, I'm just being the devil's advocate and, doubtless, there are flaws in my thinking . . .

Tim.

Hello Tim,

Interestingly, the process you put forward is similar to how I would determine when my mechanical system is not longer "in tune" with the Markets and as such should be switched off.

If you know the losing % of your system, you can easily calculate the number of consecutive losses that you would encounter at some point.

In addition, this process is a very good way to calculate ones risk per trade. All you need to know is the losing % and the MaxDD you would accept beforehand.

All IMO,

Chorlton

 

[strongboes]

Hi,

IMO blackjack is not the most favourable to 99.5 no make that 99.9% of players for the simple reason that in my experience players will not play as they should on every hand, fear, greed and or a lack of knowledge increases their statistical loss considerably.

Roulette on the other hand they cant split double or stay or take a card when they should or shouldn't so they cant affect the odds. Incidentally, please dont slate me for saying this, but there is a method using standard deviation which changes the house advantage over to the player however it is quite boring, actually extremely boring and even if you were to assume a spin every minute which doesn't happen then it would take you 10's of hours of straight playing to make it worthwhile! See if you can figure it out, I will post it up when I can remember it

Regards

p.s I did not figure it out I found it on a website of probabilities must be 10 years ago

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Hi,

IMO blackjack is not the most favourable to 99.5 no make that 99.9% of players for the simple reason that in my experience players will not play as they should on every hand, fear, greed and or a lack of knowledge increases their statistical loss considerably.

Roulette on the other hand they cant split double or stay or take a card when they should or shouldn't so they cant affect the odds. Incidentally, please dont slate me for saying this, but there is a method using standard deviation which changes the house advantage over to the player however it is quite boring, actually extremely boring and even if you were to assume a spin every minute which doesn't happen then it would take you 10's of hours of straight playing to make it worthwhile! See if you can figure it out, I will post it up when I can remember it

Regards

p.s I did not figure it out I found it on a website of probabilities must be 10 years ago

I think you may need to find out what Roulette is first before commenting on it.

 

[normbeef]

my uncle did this on the horses a few years back .. betting on the favorite in every race in a meeting using the double the stake on the lose system... he made a packet on paper, many thousands ££ from an initial bet of just £1.00 .. then went live with it and Blew up £500 ... lol... which was a fair bit back in the 80's....

he ran out of cash... again the market has always got more dosh...

 

[strongboes]

I think you may need to find out what Roulette is first before commenting on it.

I have spent part of my life working in a casino my friend so I am pretty confident that there is nothing I do not know about roulette. Maybe you should open your mind up a little to the possibilities that may exist.

 

[strongboes]

Also the longest single red or black run in a casino off the top of my head is 27, believe it has happened a couple of times. I recall nearly every night seeing the whole screen red or black on the electronic roulette which was 13 numbers. This was spun off of a real wheel btw.

 

[Chorlton]

Incidentally, please dont slate me for saying this, but there is a method using standard deviation which changes the house advantage over to the player however it is quite boring

Hello Strongboes,

Excuse my ignorance, but I completely fail to understand how one can transfer the game's "edge" from the House to the Player. Look at the numbers on the wheel, IMO the "edge" (albeit small) is in the favour of the house. Its as simple as that!!!!

If one could really convert the game from a negative to a positive expectancy (for the player) this process/method for doing so would be anything but boring!!! ;-) Instead, Players would be playing it around the clock !!!!!!!

 

[Masquerade]

Only way to gain an edge on roulette is to find an un-balanced wheel, take advantage of "dealer's throw" or just cheat. There are no other ways to create a +EV from roulette.