Retire out on this one trade.

[The Baptist]

Hi,

I have posted my favourite formation on this commodity (Coffee) for the monthly chart.

It has already given this pattern on both daily and weekly and broken through and I believe it will set up shortly for the annual mega pattern if 1467 is closed above. It is not too late.

I do not know what the fundamentals entail but the charts are making my hands clammy and i have already been in since 1175 for 275 pips. we will no doubt here the full reason later as this chart seems way more bullish than any other soft in my view.

I have posted the Monthly Baptist Flag and the possible Annual Baptist flag take out point. You read it here first, lets hope I am right.

 

[The Baptist]

Charts

attached

 

[The Baptist]

attached

The 1467 level has been utterly blitzed as a resistance line following last weeks failure to hold a close above this level, despite intraday clearance. The market is at 1576 at present after opening at 1411.

It seems mine is a lone voice in the wilderness, nobody is interested, I suppose this means it will run plenty more.

Anyone else want a 170 point single day profit day let me know, else maybe this is a commodity not worth covering with a thread.

I would expect some pullbacks from current highs before the close, given the size of the move.

 

[Pippppin]

Coffee is indeed shaping up nicely for a possible long-term move. However, this is a volatile commodity, and significant daily moves are not unusual. Fine if you are on the right side of them. Not enough evidence to my eyes yet.....I do seem to remember coffee being hyped up on an earlier thread. Good luck

 

[DaveT]

Interesting move today in London, BUT I see FOUR big factors to counter the runaway bull potential.

1) Poor closeability today - Sept closed around mid-range at 1500.

2) Most of the strength was in the nearby (sept) contract - look at November or January and the chart looks weaker - we counld NOT close above recent highs in those months.

3) Major bearish divergence on this rally, see CCI , or RSI (14).

4) Perceived Robusta supply squeeze is short-term, as harvest starts soon and following crop is expected to be learger.



These 4 factors lead me to expect a further period of consolidation at least. But I agree on the long-term charts (esp monthly) London looks ready to take off.

As for New York, well it's lagging significantly ofcourse, but about to enter it's bullish seasonal time frame. Consequewntly, I expect a correction in the Spread between the 2 markets and the possibility of New York regaining a lead if Flowering season proves dry in Brazil.

I have no position in either market yet, but watching closely now for an entry point.

FWIW.

 

[The Baptist]

Some Late harvest anyone?

Interesting move today in London, BUT I see FOUR big factors to counter the runaway bull potential.

1) Poor closeability today - Sept closed around mid-range at 1500.

2) Most of the strength was in the nearby (sept) contract - look at November or January and the chart looks weaker - we counld NOT close above recent highs in those months.

3) Major bearish divergence on this rally, see CCI , or RSI (14).

4) Perceived Robusta supply squeeze is short-term, as harvest starts soon and following crop is expected to be learger.



These 4 factors lead me to expect a further period of consolidation at least. But I agree on the long-term charts (esp monthly) London looks ready to take off.

As for New York, well it's lagging significantly ofcourse, but about to enter it's bullish seasonal time frame. Consequewntly, I expect a correction in the Spread between the 2 markets and the possibility of New York regaining a lead if Flowering season proves dry in Brazil.

I have no position in either market yet, but watching closely now for an entry point.

FWIW.

thank you both for your comments, for awhile I though nobody was out there.

Fantastic trading day for me as i had what I would describe as 'exceptional trade/ exceptional money management accepted loss ' conditions from the begining at 1175 On this opportunity.

DaveT you raised a couple of interesting ones there.

1. Technically the move was a blow off I could not believe my eyes for about 25 mins. Where the pace is too far to fast, a pull back which may even follow through to tomorrow is natural my most optimistic expectation for today was a close over 1467 the last technical high and place of last failure to close above.

So to me the pull back was expected rather than bad news and I managed to lighten up a bit after it was clear it had topped for the day. Although I have replaced the Buy stops lower down to keep scale on upside move.

2. I place greatest relevance to the contract I trade and its technical merits, it is as likely that the further contracts will firm as the near one will weaken. I am suspicious of broker speak of purely short term shortages, if that was common knowledge surely some particpants could reacted to nonimmediate supply.

3. Divergence of those two indicators is not a reason in its own that I accept (my CCI looks fine by the way, a bit round topped given the pullback I suppose), other indicators are far more confirming, I look at a lot of qtly, and monthly charts so we may be at cross purposes if you are primarily refering to just Daily.

4. Don't know about that statement it may well be accurate, but technically it looks long run up to me and I follow price action over news.

But It was worth while hearing a counterpoint and I appreciate your post and hopefully future others.

 

[The Baptist]

Coffee is indeed shaping up nicely for a possible long-term move. However, this is a volatile commodity, and significant daily moves are not unusual. Fine if you are on the right side of them. Not enough evidence to my eyes yet.....I do seem to remember coffee being hyped up on an earlier thread. Good luck

Quiet right, i think I am the sole hype merchant around here hence the heading on this one, the quieter it gets the harder I scream! :cheesy:

 

[The Baptist]

Evening star in formation

Quiet right, i think I am the sole hype merchant around here hence the heading on this one, the quieter it gets the harder I scream! :cheesy:

In the short term both of you may well be on the money as we seem to have an evening star in the making after failure again to hold on to the upper 1500's, I expect a close similar to yesterday after another beating back from 1570's.

Med/Long run still with this trade and have buy stops posted, expect down day tomorrow and possibly beyond for a spell.

 

[The Baptist]

Coffee up gap days = Happy days, but....

Hi, I have posted the monthly chart.

I still have the yellow line on it for the direction and rate of Break out, In light of performance it almost looks concervative. This isthe first of the patterns to post a proper Belt hold period (month) ie. Long white candle, classic BO behaviour.

Tha Daily's posted a bullish continuation pattern which I ringed note the higher closes within the grey wedge.

However we have had 3 successive opening gaps the most recent a massive 40 pence, excellent for equity a clear case of a panic, but implied possible downside gaps/moves are possible although I remain long term bullish, Draw down on equity could be violent in both directions, nerve wracking if over watched.

Posted new trailing stops in the cold quiet of the evening and will wait to see if their is more panic buying to come.

I hope that some people on the boards have made something on the moves to date.

 

[The Baptist]

Published: 23 August 2006

The world price of robusta coffee leapt to a seven-year high yesterday after it emerged stockpiles kept in Italy had been damaged.

The coffee price had already been sent soaring in recent weeks by fears of a shortage of supply from Vietnam, a major producer of the robusta beans that are traded in London.

 

[The Baptist]

End of month Chart

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=278726&postcount=390

 

[The Baptist]

Stars dimmed down but not out.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=278726&postcount=390

Robusta has had a strong down day as signaled by the dual evening stars mentioned in an earlier post just prior to today.

I have an idea of a possible turning area back up after support being found in the 1445 - 1480 range.

I will look again for Candle and Window based entries/support around this level. Although I do not anticipate the primary next BO move to follow immediately not before a 3rd lower high and higher low has formed. It may however be the lowest level for getting back involved.

The level for all the above being invalidated would be a break through the 1356 level, for now I am reasonably optimistic this will not transpire, while respecting the markets wishes.

Happy Coffee trading.

 

[The Baptist]

Baptist 3 pt continuation being flagged...?

Hullo,

I have posted Robusta Coffee again we may have made a 3rd lower high on Rob Coffee.

If RobC stays over the 1400 level and makes a final upturn (3rd higher Low) expect an upside BO to set up.

Once another down day is confirmed at least tomorrow and probably down for a few more days Lodge your Buy Stops at the 1517 level on Rob Coffee.

 

[The Baptist]

Strong Robusta Coffee

It looks like further strength on Robusta on a 'Baptist 3 point Flag'.

Chart tomorrow, don't miss the Macro trend on this one.

Enjoy.

 

[DaveT]

Baptist -

It is indeed a breakout NORTH for Robusta this morning. Harvest pressure notwithstanding.

I prefer NY Arabica at these levels (as you know) - I am eagerly awaiting the NY open for a good gap higher and possible strong breakout for NY March to target 12800.

The seasonal for Arabica is primed to the upside from now thru February.

Don't forget - the new Brazil crop is forecast DOWN on the one just harvested - due to the bienniel tree cycle being in an 'off'-year.

Current forecast is 35-37 million bags - but any further weather problems could shave a few mill off that figure, IMO.

The long-term technicals for NY look GREAT - volatility squeezes in both Weekly and Monthly charts.

 

[Pippppin]

DaveT

Did you say on another thread you have taken a controlled risk bet with IG for NY coffee? How does it work, and what is the extra spread you have paid for the security of the controlled risk?

 

[DaveT]

Hi Pipppin -

A conrtolled risk spread bet (with IG) works as follows:

Say March NY Coffee is quoted at 10000 (mid-price)

For a controlled risk trade, the TOTAL spread is 80 points (with IG), and this is added (or subtracted if shorting) to the quote to establish the opening level. This is a premium of 20 points on the standard spread of 60 points (for an unlimited risk trade)

So going LONG MARCH NY coffee , on a quote of 10000, would be opened at 10080.

There is no other spread to pay, so on closing the trade, the exit price is the mid-price quoted at the time.


With a controlled risk trade, you know on opening the position the MAXIMUM you could lose on that trade. This is determined by where you place your GUARANTEED STOP level. This STOP level is truly guaranteed, and not affected by slippage,gaps,etc.

So if you went LONG March at 10080, placing a £5 bet, and you placed your stop 1000 points BELOW your opening level (at 9080) , you would be risking £5 X 1000 = £5000.

You can exit/close trades wholly or partially, as with conventional spread-bets.

 

[Pippppin]

Thanks DaveT

 

[The Baptist]

Baptist -

It is indeed a breakout NORTH for Robusta this morning. Harvest pressure notwithstanding.

I prefer NY Arabica at these levels (as you know) - I am eagerly awaiting the NY open for a good gap higher and possible strong breakout for NY March to target 12800.

The seasonal for Arabica is primed to the upside from now thru February.

Don't forget - the new Brazil crop is forecast DOWN on the one just harvested - due to the bienniel tree cycle being in an 'off'-year.

Current forecast is 35-37 million bags - but any further weather problems could shave a few mill off that figure, IMO.

The long-term technicals for NY look GREAT - volatility squeezes in both Weekly and Monthly charts.

I think we both have good patterns and there may be some positive correlation re-entering as it has been mainly Robusta till now, but your bean is perking up nicely.

Once again the Baptist 3 point Triangle provides the fail safe continuation pattern which always allows you to add to positions on the BO, Only this time it broke and fizzled a bit not enough to stop me out. See Chart

Then the primary BO reasserted itself to my relief and smiles abound.

Good Luck breathen of the brown Gold.

Coffee I believe will be a tidy place to hang out as stated before, everyone to their own bean. I just get good Data for metastock on Robusta and like the long term pattern as well (also a Bap 3 pt triangle) on the annual chart .

As for weather I have little idea but price action tells me 'up'. It could be as Rob is the cheapo bean it may be the initial chinese cuppa while, they find their emerging wealth.

Most of our latte's and capachino's are Arabica with Rob often making up only 8% in Blends and excluded entirely on Most of Starbucks offering which is mainly Arabica, the roast dictates a fair bit in the degree of aroma/bitterness, so says my informed sources.

Premium cuppa cof, by the way, according to my Espresso Guru is a 'Jaimacan Blue Mountain Arabica bean', costing a pretty packet so I am told.

Best wishes

 

[The Baptist]

I think we both have good patterns and there may be some positive correlation re-entering as it has been mainly Robusta till now, but your bean is perking up nicely.

Once again the Baptist 3 point Triangle provides the fail safe continuation pattern which always allows you to add to positions on the BO, Only this time it broke and fizzled a bit not enough to stop me out. See Chart

Then the primary BO reasserted itself to my relief and smiles abound.

Good Luck breathen of the brown Gold.

Coffee I believe will be a tidy place to hang out as stated before, everyone to their own bean. I just get good Data for metastock on Robusta and like the long term pattern as well (also a Bap 3 pt triangle) on the annual chart .

As for weather I have little idea but price action tells me 'up'. It could be as Rob is the cheapo bean it may be the initial chinese cuppa while, they find their emerging wealth.

Most of our latte's and capachino's are Arabica with Rob often making up only 8% in Blends and excluded entirely on Most of Starbucks offering which is mainly Arabica, the roast dictates a fair bit in the degree of aroma/bitterness, so says my informed sources.

Premium cuppa cof, by the way, according to my Espresso Guru is a 'Jaimacan Blue Mountain Arabica bean', costing a pretty packet so I am told.

Best wishes

Posted Monthly Robusta Chart DaveT you may recognise' The baptist 3 point Flag formation marked with two blue lines.

Very similar to the 'wedge' you just witnessed and traded in Arabica.