FAQ Realistically, How much Money can I Expect to Make?

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Lee Shepherd

Senior member
2,164 570
In blusignals defence they state it’s ‘possible’, and of course he’s 100% correct. It is possible.

As traders on a trading website we should be fully aware of the difference between a given outcome (probability) and a possibility. Having said that, I would agree that the probability is very slim.

Have a great Sunday.
 
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Mactheriverrat

Member
60 4
Hi Essentially if you go into trading with the aim to make money then all that will happen is that you will lose. All self thinkers do lose, they never advertise it (not my fault I'm a pillock guv). :cheesy::clap::cheesy::clap::cheesy::clap::cool:
Like I said - Find a simple system that one can make Profit- THE REPEAT.
 

hatemypips

Well-known member
368 19
are you sure?
so you think that almost nobody(incl. you) cannot working with data analytically?
How many person do you know that are as rich as the Warren Buffet?
Well you need to learn tools like econometrics, R, statistics to be able to conduct meaningful analysis. Otherwise its pointless even if you have good data.
 

FXX

Experienced member
1,140 192
Well you need to learn tools like econometrics, R, statistics to be able to conduct meaningful analysis. Otherwise its pointless even if you have good data.
Show me one person who has done this and is as rich as Warren?

You can learn all those languages (I know many of them) but they are useless if you can't derive a strategy. I have worked at many investment banks, a couple of asset managers, and currently at a major stock exchange who calculates the dax and other indices (over 8000). In all of that exposure, I have seen financial models applied in code in various languages and price testing strategies. None of them do what you talk of because it doesn't work.

Outside of financial models all you have are algorithms that look for patterns in data. While this may be far more precise and surface information previously unknown, it isn't going to be the basis of a strategy. The most successful ones out there that have applied machine learning have added their own rule sets based on experience and include fundamental drivers in the rule sets. Everyone that's tried to apply this approach using just price data have either failed, found partial success, or short term fantastic results. They all however fail over the long haul.

If you think about it, the algorithms are really just a computerised flavour of the thought process undertaken by your average retail trader. It's a pointless endeavour because the flaw in the design is assuming price can tell you what the drivers of price is when it's just a historical print of the outcomes of drivers. For the data to be meaningful you have to include data points that occur before price reacts and only then will a meaningful strategy be possible. Ray Dalio did this and his trading engine by his own admittance makes better decisions then he does. Of course its the culmination of his rules applied to market driving data that makes the magic happen. The computer just follows a logical path based on the rules.

Trust me when I tell you this is snake oil without the correct inclusion of market drivers.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 
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NVP

Legendary member
36,423 1,815
Show me one person who has done this and is as rich as Warren?

You can learn all those languages (I know many of them) but they are useless if you can't derive a strategy. I have worked at many investment banks, a couple of asset managers, and currently at a major stock exchange who calculates the dax and other indices (over 8000). In all of that exposure, I have seen financial models applied in code in various languages and price testing strategies. None of them do what you talk of because it doesn't work.

Outside of financial models all you have are algorithms that look for patterns in data. While this may be far more precise and surface information previously unknown, it isn't going to be the basis of a strategy. The most successful ones out there that have applied machine learning have added their own rule sets based on experience and include fundamental drivers in the rule sets. Everyone that's tried to apply this approach using just price data have either failed, found partial success, or short term fantastic results. They all however fail over the long haul.

If you think about it, the algorithms are really just a computerised flavour of the thought process undertaken by your average retail trader. It's a pointless endeavour because the flaw in the design is assuming price can tell you what the drivers of price is when it's just a historical print of the outcomes of drivers. For the data to be meaningful you have to include data points that occur before price reacts and only then will a meaningful strategy be possible. Ray Dalio did this and his trading engine by his own admittance makes better decisions then he does. Of course its the culmination of his rules applied to market driving data that makes the magic happen. The computer just follows a logical path based on the rules.

Trust me when I tell you this is snake oil without the correct inclusion of market drivers.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

agreed ........even supercomputers are still superdumb ....until you tell them the rules you wish to apply .....:smart:

creating algos and automated strategies is interesting though...it sure makes you dot every "I" and cross every "T" in a set of entry / exit trading rules

N
 

dvid

Newbie
3 0
It depends on a lot how much money you are trading with, how many lots are you trading, your money management. Mostly it depends on the first two things mentioned above. It also depends on your trading strategy and how long are you keeping your position.
 

divyanshisharma

Junior member
25 0
90% Traders fails due to impatience, fear, greed and negative approach if you need to get good return then think of the long-term investment
 

DavidKSawyer

Junior member
23 1
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reach4thelasers

Newbie
8 0
If you're new to trading then I would plan to lose money for the first 2 years at least. I consider myself pretty smart. Got a first class degree in computer science from an Elite University. I've always been good at everything. Trading was a big struggle, even with a highly technical background.

Don't underestimate the challenge you face; expect to lose money while you master it.
 

Tcurtis79

Newbie
1 0
Sorry to butt in but this seemed like a forum for my question.. I want to know which is the best platform to trade on as I read there are a lot that are not regulated and or are scammers.. I just want to sign up to a trading platform I can trust in and not have any problems when it comes to withdrawing funds
 

SmTrader86

Junior member
17 4
I have been trading for a while now. i average 10-15% per month. I am a swing trader. I don't aim for a % but my setup usually bring this %. Don't look for the money, just get better at trading before you know it, the money always follow. Once you really master yourself (Your Psychology & Emotion) your 90% there...
 

Golgothafx

Newbie
3 0
I have been trading for a while now. i average 10-15% per month. I am a swing trader. I don't aim for a % but my setup usually bring this %. Don't look for the money, just get better at trading before you know it, the money always follow. Once you really master yourself (Your Psychology & Emotion) your 90% there...
I agree with you 100% bro.
I have lost a lot of money trying to beat the market forgetting that the market remains the Queen and we only get the much that she releases to us.
I am presently exploring ways to master the "psychology and emotion" side of me while i perfect my Price Action trading strategy for now.
Thanks again
 

ayli

Newbie
2 1
SHORT ANSWER

Allegedly, 90% of all traders fail

This cliché is posted on the boards almost daily. It may or may not be true. Evidence to support this figure is mostly anecdotal, however, it’s certain that many who try their hand at trading quit with less money in their pockets than when they started. So, the balance of probabilities suggests that you would be wise to ‘expect’ to lose money rather than to make any. But hey, that’s a negative attitude and, besides, you’re not one of the 90% are you? No sir, let’s assume that you’re destined to join the elite 10% of profitable traders!

Now the good news
The positive spin on the ‘90% of all traders fail’ statistic is twofold:
1. Many of those that fail are ‘get rich quick’ punters who play at trading in the vein hope that they can turn £100 into a million in next to no time. If this describes you – here’s some great advice for you. . . If it’s money you can afford to lose and you want to have a laugh gambling, go to the races or take a trip to Las Vegas. It’ll be a whole lot more fun.
2. The good news is that the failure rate needs to be high in order to provide the mega profits for the 10% who succeed. In this respect, trading is a bit like the lottery. The jackpot is divided between those who have the winning numbers. The more winners there are, the smaller the cash prize that each winner receives. So, if you’re willing to put in the huge amounts of time and effort required to succeed – the upside is big. Huge. The sky’s the limit!

But . . . (there’s always a ‘but’!)
But here’s the rub. The secret to trading success is not to focus on reward, but on risk. You must minimise risk and keep your losses small. Coupled with this is the need to focus on trading really well, rather than the money you’ll make if you do. In this respect, good traders are like the best premiership footballers. First and foremost, footy stars have to focus on their training, fitness and how to excel on the field of play. The fame, money and beautiful WAGs come second.

The holy grail to success in trading is understanding and applying sound risk and money management principles. Failure to do so could be disastrous. No joke. In extreme cases, this could result in bankruptcy and loss of your house or other assets. If you've not read it already, before continuing with this FAQ; check out this sticky: Essentials Of 'Risk & Money Management'
Thank you so much T2W. It is so much useful to me...
 
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