Pullback expected next week!

[vergis92]

Nasdaq has formed valid swing high, indicators strongly suggest most likely we will retrace lower next week regardless if a higher high is made first, a pullback of few days followed by a breach of that swing high will confirm final change of trend to the upside and hence more predictable trading with average range days... we will see.

 

[tomorton]

Hi vergis92 - We are in the most serious attempt at consolidation and reversal since this sharp decline started at the beginning of September. I agree with you that we will probably see a higher high next week but it would be great to have a pullback to a low to show there is really some buying support out there. Too early for long-term longs in case that low fails but I am also hopeful we are going to see that October was the bottom. Good luck

 

[koolblue]

You might be interested in the fact that closing ticks on the nyse was over the magic 800 number on thurs. close, indicating a decent decline starting within two trading days. this is something ive followed for about 2 years now. Reasearch it and youll see what i mean. probably 20-25 examples this year alone! A year ago the avg decine was probably 25-40 handles , but the last few months with the vix so high its more like 70-100!

 

[TomTom]

I dont see any significant pull back untill end of the week.
This is November and not the time to sell.

 

[wallstreet1928]

"Since last week the stock market has made a little progress toward putting in a bottom by breaking out of the descending triangle formation. Unfortunately, volume associated with this move has been tepid, and there has not been any follow through. This tells me that advances are primarily being driven by short covering, and that investors are still fearful and on the sidelines. Maybe a bottom is forming, but I'm not willing to assert that with any confidence."

quote taken from Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 10/31/2008

 

[wallstreet1928]

this article might interest the BULLS, very informative with techinal analysis :

Thomas J. Bowley | Invested Central

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN

Previously, I've mentioned a favorite indicator of mine - The Bowley Trend. The Bowley Trend is an analysis of stock market history, dating back to 1950 on the S&P 500 and 1971 on the NASDAQ. It identifies discernible bullish and bearish trends that have emerged over time and provides additional clues as to the direction of equity prices. I use The Bowley Trend to corroborate technical signals.

Technically, the market is recovery mode. We've got a long way to go and the depths of this recession will be great. I've identified near-term support and resistance for the Dow Jones on the following chart:

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081102/images/cww20081101t-1.png

From the above chart, I've identified a key price resistance level on the Dow Jones near 10,400. I believe the current range on the Dow is from 7800-10400 and that's where we'll trade. Should the Dow approach that resistance on lessening volume, be very cautious, and possibly consider shorting if you have a propensity to short. The volatility index, or VIX, is finally taking a breather. Take a look at the two VIX charts below. The first shows where we were in early September and my analysis then vs. where the VIX stands now and what it's signaling.

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081102/images/cww20081101t-2.png

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/20081102/images/cww20081101t-3.png



Expect volatility to remain high, but lessening from the ridiculous levels over the past several weeks. Traders will need to remain on their toes, capturing profits when available and keeping appropriate stops in place to avoid big losses.

Happy trading!

 

[vergis92]

"Since last week the stock market has made a little progress toward putting in a bottom by breaking out of the descending triangle formation. Unfortunately, volume associated with this move has been tepid, and there has not been any follow through. This tells me that advances are primarily being driven by short covering, and that investors are still fearful and on the sidelines. Maybe a bottom is forming, but I'm not willing to assert that with any confidence."

quote taken from Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 10/31/2008

How exactly do you use volume expansion? I have read a lot about it, but different
theories seem to contradict each other, the classic theory says volume increase
suggest price will continue to move in the same direction, equovolume charting
theory suggests a relationship bewteen trading range and volume, like a shorter
range day with increased volume signals reversal....

I have found volume patterns to be confusing and poorly defined, I don't really
understand them, volume shows activity, but who is buying? the crowed? the banks?

 

[wallstreet1928]

Weak Closes And Low Volume Dominated The Market This Week

November 1, 2008
The stock market had a great week last week but the problem that kept creeping up as each day went on was lower and lower volume. This is not good no matter when you see it in an uptrend, unless heavier accumulation then follows. However, this particular rally seemed to be very weak. And if you go over the Nasdaq each day as the market rallied it becomes clear that institutional investors were not supporting stocks as they moved higher.

please watch his video on youtube and read rest of article at the link below..........this chap is amazing!!

Weak Closes And Low Volume Dominated The Market This Week | BigWaveTrading.net

 

[TomTom]

Any pull back in my book is a buying oppertunity ..............

 

[TomTom]

closed all longs 16.11 ( +235 on footise) will not post other trades as not posted them here.

Markets can have a pull back from Wednesday to Friday....... but still a buy on the dips ....for me

 

[vergis92]

closed all longs 16.11 ( +235 on footise) will not post other trades as not posted them here.

Markets can have a pull back from Wednesday to Friday....... but still a buy on the dips ....for me

ever heard of the day of the week factor ?
in an uptrend , you are gonna have the US markets rallying with at least one
tripple digit gain day (dow jones) occuring between monday and wednesday,
whereas deepest retracementS/declineS occur on Thursdays!

now that's only statistical but it holds true, the pullback I expect this week
because of other pinpoint accurate indicators, I'm getting curious to see.

 

[kingrabbit]

It is clear that the dow has broken out of the accending triangle but on weak volume, generally we also see pull backs on the days after the election, also it seems like the market is forming a bear flag on the hourly graph? please comment