Psychological market phases

[cosmoglobe]

Hi,
If one sees the markets as a 100% human emotionally packed environment, what would be the dominant market phases. Lunch time at midday, sell offs before the weekend, Monday blues, midweek tierdness, Emotianally charged Monday, evenings, the days before a public holiday.....
if one would transfer the theory of masspsychology to massemotions, would there be something valuable come out?

 

[new_trader]

Hi,
If one sees the markets as a 100% human emotionally packed environment, what would be the dominant market phases. Lunch time at midday, sell offs before the weekend, Monday blues, midweek tierdness, Emotianally charged Monday, evenings, the days before a public holiday.....
if one would transfer the theory of masspsychology to massemotions, would there be something valuable come out?

"The fact that people will be full of greed, fear or folly is predictable. The sequence is not predictable."

-Warren Buffet

 

[Depth Trade]

Hi,
If one sees the markets as a 100% human emotionally packed environment, what would be the dominant market phases. Lunch time at midday, sell offs before the weekend, Monday blues, midweek tierdness, Emotianally charged Monday, evenings, the days before a public holiday.....
if one would transfer the theory of masspsychology to massemotions, would there be something valuable come out?

Consistency

.. is the key word to focus on.

The trade would have to be made at the same time under the same circumstances every time, or else one would be cycling through different strategies and not know it.

Thus trading different cycles but thinking your trading the same one, which is based on emotion but technically random.

It could possibly trade out if your money management was correct, but you might never know it because you'd be caught trading different strategies/cycles while thinking you were trading the same one> emotion.



Above ?

DT

 

[Depth Trade]

The market is already Emotionally charged.

It's nothing more than an Exhibition of Ignorance.

There's only a hand-ful of people that actually know what's going on. These players are hanging in the shadows until the 'Carry trades' burn out.

Those that are making money off any charts what-so-ever, are only making money because the market is So directionally based that there trading Indicator Crossovers and happen to be making money only because there able to ride the trend, which is driven by Rates.

Take rates out of the equation (which is already happening) and what you have left will be massive amounts of people spinning around failing positions.

Look at Gbp/chf ooh, hard to trade. It goes one direction for a reason.

Now look at Eur/usd, the direction is no longer there because it has the most volume and has already been (de-coded) by rates.
The only reason there are still trending pairs is because not as many people are trading them, all the high volume pairs are moving off 'complicated multi commodity butterfly'

With so much money on the line for brokers to lose (because they'll have to take the other side of trades) this arbitrage is slowly going to dry-up.

Just think about it, the world is moving towards a one world currency ( it might be a thousand years)..
.. but the point is that there is huge Arbitrage in the market, and any where there is huge money to be made, there is huge money to be lost.

All these Brokers/ trading Platforms are desperate to keep this information private.



This leaves P.E.I. cleaning up all the money, after the markets consolidate.

This is because P.E.I. trades a 16 product 'fly' that is not dependent on Rates, but is derived from the cross-reference of Global product with 'said' currency being traded.


DT

 

[grantx]

Depth Trade,

I wonder if you could clarify a few points?

“trend...driven by rates”.

Do you mean interest rate differentials, ie as long as there is a differential, there will be direction? This seems to be implied (if I’m correct) by “Take rates out of the equation”.

“Gbp/chf...goes one direction for a reason”.

What would that be?

“Eur/usd, the direction is no longer there because it has the most volume and has already been (de-coded) by rates.”

How does high volume undermine direction?

What do you mean by it being decoded by rates?

Could you give an example of a “complicated multi commodity butterfly...a 16 product fly” ?

Finally (honest), what/who is PEI?

Thank you in anticipation.

Grant.