PROPERTY seminars

[al-motor]

sorry guys- not sure if this topic has been mentioned before-

Friend of mine told me about these "popular" property seminars that retail around £2k- I told him that in the stockmarkets we have simi,ar ones ( VS , DW)_ etc.

Just wondering if anyone has been to one of these property seminars ? In particular he mentioned one by Insidetrack !?!


I told him to be very careful..............


cheers
Al

 

[options]

From what I can gather, it's much the same. Main speaker. with a bunch of 'experts' behind. They just happen to be the mortgage brokers, solicitors etc that the main bloke uses, Get a deal if you use them blah, blah.

Crux of it is. Buy to let, get a mortgage on that one to buy another one and so on and so on, until you are a mega rich property mogul.

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I've never been on one, but if it's anything like the trading ones, they time them when everyone is buoyed up with rising property values, rising share values, etc. They all pile into the market, just as the old hands are piling out. It's been 12 years since the bottom of the last property cycle, so I wouldn't be surprised if we're near the top.

Of course, the clever thing would be to do the homework, wait patiently, then buy at the bottom when the prices for ex-buy to lets are rock bottom and you can get them two a pound after they've been repossessed! If only, eh?

 

[TheBramble]

Interesting response Skim.

Got me thinking, is there any sensible way to hedge against falling house prices?

 

[Crassula]

Skim is right, in the days of negative equity and repossesions I bought a flat, people think you are of your rocker, buying a repossed place that has been trashed by the poor people who have been evicted by the building society. While property prices are falling!!!!

The thing is yes you can make a huge profit, but, the bank think you are mad so they offer you higher interest rates for the mortgage if they offer you one at all. Then there is the long wait as the market turns meanwhile you cannot do a thing with the money you have tied up in the place, (as the banks get rather careful in these market conditions, when it comes to lending money), infact you're are probably still losing money as you cannot pick the bottom of the market to the day/week or month

It's a bit like the true bottom of a bear market, when no one even wants to hear the word share never mind purchase, except for that is the players with the deep to very deep pockets

 

[al-motor]

thanks guys- thats what i thought- these become popular at boom times !?!

 

[chump]

Skim,
"Of course, the clever thing would be to do the homework, wait patiently, then buy at the bottom when the prices for ex-buy to lets are rock bottom and you can get them two a pound after they've been repossessed! If only, eh?"

It's called being contrarian and it does work although 'picking bottoms' in property is as futile as that excercise is in the financial markets .
The more enthusiasthm you see in the market the more liquidity you should accumulate to position your self for the opportunities which will inevitably come. I am patiently waiting for some of all those people who did not do their sums right. Time is not an issue..LOL ..take all the time you need. Very much like trading in that respect don't you think?

In fact on this subject of enthusiasthm what doe we make of the rapid rise in membership on these very boards ? Does it tell us anything about the market?

Cheers

 

[al-motor]

Chump, i know what u mean........... thats what i kept telling my friend about properties...........

We shall see........ the property mkt needs a 20% or so correction. We may see another interest rise this Thurs.

 

[chump]

In all honesty I don't have an opinion on property in the sense of what it will do, or what it should do.

What I am doing is simply watching what it does and keeping plenty of powder dry to be there if or when an opportunity arises.

I will say I am watching a bit more closely as I have seen the enthusiasthm for property increasing to new levels. Patience usally brings a reward..LOL

Cheers

 

[al-motor]

very true- U need to be like a cheetah, just finding the right opportunity............

 

[al-motor]

My friend told me that he has found another seminar- I told him not to bother looking as they will all be the same !!

 

[moreliver]

Yeah, I've been on one of those property seminars.

And yeah, it's the guys who made money on property making money on training now that the market is so overbought they have trouble finding bargains anymore.

I'm happy I learned the tricks of the trade and met the seminar company's tame advisors etc, but think a minute. Take a good hard commonsense look at the property market. Everybody and his cat is jumping on and people with no brains are making fortunes at high speed. Where did we see this last? Tech stocks and dotcoms? you win a cuddly bear.

The bargains in the market are, as I said, and relating my own experience, becoming really hard to find. Yields are down. Prices- well. Now ask yourself whether you'd be more comfortable buying or selling this market. Yeah, as a trader you buy this sort of rise, but you get ready to short the market.

So I ain't looking to buy a house right now.

DYOR and all that.

Moreliver

 

[al-motor]

Moreliver - thanks for that................ I did say the same things as well- I said, it will be nice to have some kind of a retrace- say 15/20 % and then a rise after.............


Al

 

[BBB]

No one has mentioned interest rates! Aren't they on the turn against home owners?

What about the economy? Now thing are picking up again, wont this mean more money for property, 2nd homes etc?

Watch the budget!

 

[ChartMan]

There was a bit on TV about this.... in just a short while ( a year?) the guy had amassed 70 buy to lets... he was just an ordinary oik... bought, remortgaged on rising prices blah blah.... capital worth £4 million, with a similar amount of mortgage. Just 1/2 % interest rate rise and guess where he'll be.... bankrupt....

 

[BBB]

lol what a mug. Shows that greed and stupid money is in all markets, and in all players - big and small.

 

[User]

10%---20% Decline- no chance! IT'LL BE MUCH WORSE!

The markets at the end, rises in the market are being announced but I can only see one direction.

Worked for an estate agent. The owner of the chain told me he’d be selling his property portfolio soon.

This bubble burst will be horrendous!

Back in the day, £20,000 to £70,000 mortgage. Its 10x now in some cases.

Rates wouldn't have to rise that much.

In terms of percentage increase say if rates were 10% and they went up an additional 4% then that equates to a 40% increase. To get the same effect; rates have gone up from 3.5% to 4% already and that is a percentage increase of 14%. If rates went up to 4.9% then that would create a 40% rise. Same effect since the last crash.

The impact would be worse as people have 5times+ more debt.

Don't forget the plastic industry. UK credit card debt is greater then Europe put together.

House prices will burst, save your money now and buy buy buy those repossessed homes! Then WAIT :!:

 

[al-motor]

User,

If ur senario is true, then no need to rush to buy repossessed ........... The last downturn was in 1989/90 and prices were very stable for about 6 yrs afterwards..........

 

[User]

Yes your right there.

At the latest, I think by the end of summer, property prices will start to slow down immensely. Last summer was a good time for all estate agents as all the backlog of sales (from the Iraq war) came through then.

I don't think this summer will be that great, even if it is then by September prices should start to turn.

The first time buyers are out by 40%, the only mentality that is keeping this market steady, is the buy-to-let investors, the uneducated buy-to-let investors that is. Fine there’s demand but it is mentality of the herd, others are doing it-I'll do it!

Once buy-to-let capital finishes along with a few rate hikes the market will dry up.
I know a lot of smart people who are clearing their property portfolios. I’ve started as well. Fine the market has a few rises left in it, but you can’t tell exactly when the rises will finish.

The worst-case scenario prices fall by 20%. The best-case scenario prices fall by 30-40%.

UK could be in for major S**T.

 

[chump]

When you take into account the taxation issues of liquidating property portfolios there is a very decent argument for not messing about with same. It is very much a question of timescale.

You might also wish to consider property not in isolation.Much of the money that has gone into it has been brought about by the inadequacies found in other forms of investment. Those inadequacies are still very much with us.It is also worth considering that this moneyflow will also have been taken on as a long term hedge fund strategy for many people within the context of the aforementioned inadeqacies..

Fact is, property is no more predictable than any other market.

Demand may well slow down and may have already done so.However, I observe that housing supply certainly in my area of interest now looks the lightest I have seen for two years. You can't have a crash if these two factors remain in balance. That will only happen if the supply side increases dramatically. I would take the probability that that will not happen suddenly and if it does not then there is every likelihood that instead of crash we will see a more gradual pinning back of prices simply underperforming inflation.

Cheers