Priced In Already - How does it work?

Dec 25, 2017
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#46
Fair enough... I was asked to basically provide "proof" well you give me any day there's a big move on the release of news and I probably can show you in charts what they did to the market and I how come I don't care what the news is going to be bullish or bearish. Because it doesn't matter. They use it to their advantage. Like I said they usually prime the market if they are going to use an event for liquidity purposes and that's really one of the main things they use them for.



and I broke it down on a 4hr after the fact.
using the same concepts...



They've been this stuff for years... This is from 2014...
I'll let you guys go look at the news on August 20th 2014... and the time. Why did I know exactly what they were doing... I'm not here to sponsor other websites so use whatever one you'd like to look up past events...
 
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FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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#47
I recall you being asked for proof that the "big players" know the news before it is released, not a chart going back to 2014 depicting a trade you supposedly took! Anyone can can issue hindsight chart examples which are arbitrary. I think it's safe to assume you can't provide that proof but perhaps you could enlighten everyone and provide real time analysis for a future event (let's say nfp this coming Friday?)
 
Dec 25, 2017
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#48
I recall you being asked for proof that the "big players" know the news before it is released, not a chart going back to 2014 depicting a trade you supposedly took! Anyone can can issue hindsight chart examples which are arbitrary. I think it's safe to assume you can't provide that proof but perhaps you could enlighten everyone and provide real time analysis for a future event (let's say nfp this coming Friday?)

Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.
 
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Aug 21, 2004
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#49
Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.
nfp these days is pretty much a non event, yet people still waffle on about it as if everything hinged on it.

It usually pans out like this. A lurch to run stops on one side, a reverse lurch to run stops the other side, then a return back to where it was prior to news release.
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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#50
Well if you actually knew anything about about nfp it's called "Not for professionals" but they do play nfp, well see if they prime it and I'll post my analysis on my thread before hand if I can spot it. Not trying to deter from this thread again I'm sorry to the OP. But ill post before and after photos if I decide to participate in nfp Which I don't like too.
Employment data is the biggest market moving data in the USA because it's vital to the economic health. To say that professionals don't trade it shows how little you actually know about fundamentals and how professionals operate.
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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#51
nfp these days is pretty much a non event, yet people still waffle on about it as if everything hinged on it.

It usually pans out like this. A lurch to run stops on one side, a reverse lurch to run stops the other side, then a return back to where it was prior to news release.
That's because the fed are not focused on employment data and this has been the case for a while because it's been on the right track. Their focus is inflation and wage growth. This doesn't mean it's not important because a really bad number could signify underlying issues and change rate expectations. Conversely, a massive number could signify acceleration and increase rate expectations. Even though the fed are not concerned about employment at this time, it's still a very tradable event.
 
Dec 25, 2017
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#52
Kinda just going to give a blanket statement. I don't really care of the outcome of the data. I care about how they set up the Market before the event.
 

new_trader

Well-known member
Jan 1, 2006
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#53
Ignore the NEWS

Basically big player's or banks already know the news outcomes so they buy or sell ahead of time and wait till it hits the headlines and when everyone does what's expected they off load their positions to them as a form of liquidity. OR they wait for the news to come out, let the market move to better level for them to reverse whatever is happening, if a lot of people jump in and push a market to that level, they use that against us because they'll get a better price and bigger portion of their trade on against the retail trader.
Whether it's because 'insiders' are leaked information/data long before the public, OR, the 'smart' money has a much better understanding of general conditions, the end result is the same, so I agree with your view completely. I pay very little attention to 'NEWS' and rely only on what the tape is telling me.
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
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#54
Whether it's because 'insiders' are leaked information/data long before the public, OR, the 'smart' money has a much better understanding of general conditions, the end result is the same, so I agree with your view completely. I pay very little attention to 'NEWS' and rely only on what the tape is telling me.
That is a different market where different techniques such as tape reading can achieve results. Outside of futures, FX has no tape to read. If you trade fx, do you use a strategy that doesn't consider news and has a consistent result over several years?
 
Mar 29, 2015
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#55
Hey folks,
Forgive my ignorance but how does this work?

I just read an article about 2 possible rate hikes for the GBP in 2018, which the article says is already priced into the market. ...
Many bloggers/chatters repeat this without appreciating the details, imo.

Each individual entity prices in what they believe to be the odds of a certain outcome...whether they realize that this is actually what they are doing, or not.

Each individual entity does not necessarily have to prescribe to the forecast put forth by the talking heads on television.

One entity may price in one rate at a 60% likelihood; another may price in a different rate at a 90% likelihood.

Once the actual rate is known, all these individual entities may adjust their positions/orders accordingly.

The resultant price action is a reflection of these many different possibilities.