Predictions for monday? Is this the top?

[Henry321]

I have a lot of money invested right now and am up a few percent on almost all my positions. Thinkig about closing out and possibly reinvesting at a lower price/CO of some positions.

Wondering what the general conscensus is for Monday?


Thanks

 

[malaguti]

up

 

[Tradesight]

I have a lot of money invested right now and am up a few percent on almost all my positions. Thinkig about closing out and possibly reinvesting at a lower price/CO of some positions.

Wondering what the general conscensus is for Monday?


Thanks

Hi Henry,

It looks like you're from the US so I'm assuming that most of your money is invested there. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Since you operating in the long-term investment time frame you might want to look at the NYSE cumulative advance/decline line. All meaningful top have been preceded by a rollover of this key indicator. It rolled over in March of 2008, 1999 and also all the other big tops.

Right now the A/D line is making new highs and not rolling over. This doesn't mean that there cannot be a move down it just means that the long-term technicals are still positive.

Right now the market has a mild overbought condition that looks to get even more overbought. We've all seen how much the market can appreciate when the final upward squeeze is on.

I'm raising my stops and keeping a close eye on the A/D line.

Rich

 

[tomorton]

I think we would all agree it can't be known what the market will do. But we can be ready for when it does it. There is no valid technical reason why you would close a long position based on yesterday's Close. Alright, some indicators would be interpreted as saying get out now, but I don't count them as 'valid' for calling tops: for me, the only thing that identifies a top is dropping price. But you might want to tighten your stops based on money / risk management. As long as you recognise that getting out here is not based on TA and that the next time the charts look like this, you would not be able to rely on the evidence / performance of the current TA as guidance then.

 

[jacknapier]

IMO, institutions like Goldman Sachs are pushing up the bid to induce a retail frenzy so they can dump a bunch of stock then buy it back when it's much cheaper. I think we have some room to move up. Although, what it's going to do Monday is anyone's guess.

 

[Henry321]

I am tightening my stops but keeping at pace until I see direct indications of market change for now up we keep going hopefully. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

up

Agreed, I'd speculate Monday opens up, consolidation through the week so this bull trend can last the month.