Pre-Open US

[Z Forex]

Merck and Caterpillar Earnings Exceed Expectations, Oil Prices Near 3-Month Highs, Bitcoin Network Faces Investor Inflow Challenges

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures both experienced losses, with the former losing 0.3% and the latter losing 0.5%. Pharmaceutical giant Merck reported a loss less than anticipated and exceeded revenue expectations, thanks to strong Keytruda sales. Consequently, Merck's shares increased by 1%. On the other hand, Caterpillar also reported earnings and revenue beyond expectations, but its stock remained flat.
Pfizer's results were mixed as Covid product sales plummeted, while Uber's numbers were also mixed but resulted in a surprise profit, leading to a more than 4% increase in its shares before the bell.
Over 160 S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results this week. More than half of the companies in the broad market index have already reported, with 80% posting earnings beats, according to FactSet.
On Tuesday, economic indicators, including job openings and labor turnover numbers from June and the July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, will also be released.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.

USOIL:

Oil near 3-month highs as tight supply and second-half demand growth takes center stage. West Texas Intermediate crude futures at $81.53, down 27 cents from its highest settlement since April 14. Analysts warn of potential correction risk due to overbought markets. A positive outlook emerges as central banks boost confidence in major economies. US fuel demand is at its highest level since August 2019, while China seeks to boost recovery momentum. Eurozone manufacturing contracts in July, OPEC+ meeting to discuss supply cuts. BP's chief predicts a strong outlook for oil prices in the coming months and years. All those factors are affecting right now Oil price, but the supply side continues to be the most influential factor from them all.
WTI crude oil was corrected from the $82 level, and the next support could be around the $80 area. The long-term trend remains bullish, and the next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.

Crypto:

The Bitcoin (BTC) network is currently experiencing a decline in inflows, which may suggest a lack of new investors or a pause in investments from existing holders. Both factors are essential to maintain price stability and trigger positive price movement. A decrease in network inflows often indicates reduced market interest, potentially leading to a drop in price. Notably, institutional investors, who have played a significant role in Bitcoin's growth, are also seen halting their inflows into the network. This aligns with the market's lowered expectations of a Bitcoin ETF approval, which was anticipated to be a major bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel. The relevance of this is that because Bitcoin is rarely quiet for such long periods, the likelihood of a volatile move either way increases.
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[Z Forex]

Markets React to Fitch Rating Downgrade and Mixed Earnings Reports; Oil Prices Surge Amid OPEC's Production Cuts and Bitcoin Sees a Turnaround
US INDICES:

EURUSD

During Tuesday's trading session, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declined by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, citing an anticipated fiscal deterioration over the next three years. On the positive side, Advanced Micro Devices saw a 1% rise in extended trading due to better-than-expected quarterly results, while SolarEdge Technologies experienced a 12% drop after missing second-quarter revenue expectations.
August started with a lackluster first day of trading in the S&P 500, which fell by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.43%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to add 71.15 points or 0.2%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 at one point during the session.
Earnings season is progressing well, with about 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting positive surprises according to FactSet data. This trend has boosted bullish investor sentiment and continued the market's recovery since the third quarter began.
Traders are anticipating the July ADP jobs report on Wednesday before the open. Economists expect a 175,000 increase, which would be lower than the 497,000 rise in the prior month.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.​

USOIL:

OPEC's oil production has decreased due to voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and the suspension of crude oil loadings at Nigeria's Forcados terminal due to a leak risk. In July, the group pumped 840,000 barrels per day less than in June, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent reaching $85 per barrel and WTI approaching $82 per barrel.
The main concerns now are how high oil prices will rise before OPEC starts rolling back the cuts and whether they can increase production quickly if needed. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $90 per barrel to support its ambitious public spending plans under the Vision 2030 diversification program. However, if prices climb too high, it could dampen demand and have adverse effects.
Nigeria, Angola, and Libya have struggled to meet their OPEC quotas, while U.S. shale production growth has slowed down.
China's strong oil demand further supports the market, with imports at near-record levels and rising oil storage.
The decision on how long Saudi Arabia will maintain its voluntary cuts will significantly impact the oil market. Meanwhile, Russia is drilling for oil at record levels, potentially providing additional supply to temper prices.
Technically, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.​

Crypto:

MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin (BTC), has returned to profitability in Q2. Overcoming a $1 billion impairment charge from the previous year's cryptocurrency market downturn, the Virginia-based company reported net earnings of $22.2 million, a significant improvement compared to the previous year's loss of over $1 billion. Former CEO Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin proved successful as the cryptocurrency rebounded, lifting the company's financials. MicroStrategy plans to raise to $750 million via share sales for general corporate purposes, including more Bitcoin purchases, working capital, and potentially repurchasing debt. Recently, the company bought an additional 467 Bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to an impressive 152,800 BTC.
The impact on the Bitcoin price was significant, and currently, BTC is trading around the 30,000 area. The improvement in sentiment appears to be temporary, as the market requires more bullish news and further developments to sustain positive momentum.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.

 

[Z Forex]

CPI Data Impact on Bitcoin and Emerging Trends in Oil and Stock Futures
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US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures both increased by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. The latest update on the Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.2% growth in July's CPI compared to the previous month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Many individuals on Wall Street are anticipating further indications of disinflation from the CPI report and the producer price index to be released on Friday. Some regional manufacturing figures have also displayed signs of easing, as pointed out by Sahak Manuelian, the head of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
In addition to the CPI, initial jobless claims and hourly earnings for July will be published on Thursday. On another note, Disney's stock rose by 1.4% after revealing an upcoming price adjustment for ad-free Disney+ subscriptions. The media conglomerate also announced better-than-expected earnings per share for the fiscal third quarter. Conversely, Six Flags saw a decline of 3.5% following a report that was worse than expected.
As of Thursday morning, over 90% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their earnings for the quarter. Among these, around four-fifths have surpassed Wall Street's expectations, as reported by FactSet.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.​

USOIL:

Recent days have seen a boost in oil prices due to Saudi Arabia and Russia extending output cuts. This has been accompanied by concerns about supply, driven by the potential for tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region to impact Russian oil shipments.
Attention is focused on the upcoming release of July consumer price data from the United States on Thursday. This data is expected to offer insights into the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.
Adding to the price dynamics, US crude inventories saw an unexpected increase of 5.9 million barrels in the past week, surpassing the 0.6 million barrel rise projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. This information was revealed by the US Energy Information Administration's Wednesday report.
Similarly, US crude oil exports encountered a remarkable reduction of 2.9 million barrels per day during the past week, marking a record-breaking decline. Notwithstanding this decline, market sentiment foresees a future increase in crude exports, attributed to the dynamics between US crude futures and the Brent spread. This viewpoint was conveyed by Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Meanwhile, recent data has indicated that the consumer sector in China entered a state of deflation, and factory gate prices continued to decline throughout July. These trends have raised concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel will be the next challenge.​

BTC

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is set to be published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 10. Analyzing on-chain data suggests that there's a possibility of another Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, given the positive market response to the previous month's release.
The impact of the monthly CPI data on BTC prices has strengthened due to increasing Bitcoin adoption among governments and institutional investors. For instance, following the July 12 CPI data release, Bitcoin's price surged by 4%, reaching a new peak for 2023 at $31,500. The question now is whether Bitcoin can achieve a similar feat once again.
Historical data illustrates that Bitcoin has often experienced rallies when the market anticipates a decrease in CPI or a modest increase. For instance, the CPI data from July 12 indicated a mild inflation increase of only 1% in the prior month. In response, Bitcoin's price had risen by 5% in the week leading up to the release, followed by another 4% rally afterward, resulting in a new 2023 peak.
A comparable pattern has emerged in the current week. As of August 9, BTC's price closed at $29,900, reflecting a 4% increase from August 7. On-chain data suggests that crypto traders have been preparing for another round of optimistic price movement following the August 10 CPI release.
Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.
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[Z Forex]

Negative Global Sentiment Amid China's Economic Concerns, Oil Stabilization, and Bitcoin Halving Anticipation
US INDICES:

Global sentiment turned negative as disappointing data emerged from China, accompanied by an unexpected interest rate reduction by the country's central bank. China's July industrial production rose by 3.7%, falling short of expectations, and retail sales also grew less than anticipated. The People's Bank of China cut rates by 15 basis points to 2.5%, but instead of alleviating investor worries, it raised concerns about a potential property crisis in China.
In the premarket, shares of major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America declined. This followed a warning from Fitch that it might downgrade several banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Moody's had also recently downgraded the ratings of ten U.S. institutions and placed others on watch for potential downgrades.
Despite a positive Wall Street session driven by Nvidia's rally, some experts, like Alicia Levine from BNY Mellon Wealth Management, are preparing for consolidation as yields remain high, although the market might still see more gains by year-end.
Upcoming earnings releases from major retailers, including Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, are expected to garner attention. Home Depot's strong earnings report led to a slight rise in its stock before the market opened.
Looking ahead, Wall Street is focused on July retail sales data, import and export price information, and August's NAHB housing market index to gain insights into the consumer's state and economic conditions.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.


USOIL:

Crude oil prices stabilized as traders evaluated the tightness of the market in comparison to China's struggling post-COVID economic recovery. Brent crude stood at $86.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude reached $82.42/b early Tuesday.
China released data indicating heightened pressure on the economy from various angles, leading Beijing to lower key policy rates in order to stimulate activity, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. China's central bank unexpectedly decreased one set of key interest rates and later in the day, made additional cuts to other rates, according to the report.
Supply reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia, members of the OPEC+ group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, played a role in boosting prices over the past seven weeks.
In a more positive development, refinery throughput in July saw a 17.4% increase compared to the previous year in the world's largest oil-importing country. Refiners maintained elevated output to meet the demand for domestic summer travel and to capitalize on lucrative regional profit margins by exporting fuel.
Technically, WTI is corrected and finding support around the 100MA at the 81.30 level while the next support is at 79.00.





Crypto

Bitcoin miners are accumulating BTC as they prepare for the upcoming halving event in April 2024. This accumulation trend began after a drop in Bitcoin's price from $30,000 and is seen as a protective measure against potential resistance from buyers. The halving, which occurs every four years, cuts miners' rewards in half to slow new BTC creation and potentially increase its value. This upcoming halving will reduce rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Miners' improved liquidity positions, partly due to the excitement around BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have contributed to this accumulation. Institutional crypto investors are exercising caution due to the sluggish market and reduced trading volumes. Bitcoin funds have seen significant outflows, while institutional investors have stopped shorting BTC, opting to lock in profits.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the price action remains attached to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.

 

[Z Forex]

Nasdaq Rebounds with Rising Yields, Bitcoin's Volatility, and the Enigmatic Rise of a Bitcoin Wallet

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both added 0.3% and 0.4%.
The Nasdaq Composite posted its biggest advance of the month during Monday’s main trading session, rising 1.6%. The S&P 500 added close to 0.7%. The two benchmarks snapped a four-day slide, and the Nasdaq notched its biggest one-day advance since August.
Notably, the broad market index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were able to post gains even as the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached its highest level since November 2007, gaining about 9 basis points to trade at 4.34%. Tech shares historically struggle in a high-rate environment, making the tandem rise with yields on Monday more striking for Wall Street.
On the economic data front, Wall Street will be looking toward the Philadelphia Fed’s nonmanufacturing survey, as well as the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey results. Existing home sales data for July is also scheduled for release Tuesday morning.
Traders are also anticipating Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday for more insight into the Central Bank’s inflation outlook.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and also the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.

USOIL

China's recent surge in crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia is driven by heightened purchases from key Asian buyers. Despite August's increased arrivals, this rise isn't expected to have an immediate significant impact. Major importers like China, Japan, India, and Taiwan are projected to collectively raise Saudi crude imports by 1.2 million barrels per day, hitting historic highs. China's shift towards Saudi crude is due to constrained Russian Urals crude supply and pricing. Although August saw a rise in Saudi oil imports, experts predict Chinese purchases to stay modest in Q3 (July-September). Saudi Arabia still trails behind Russia, its OPEC+ partner, in delivering crude oil to China. July saw Russia surpass Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier, despite higher prices and narrower discounts. Russian imports in July were up 13% from 2022, while Saudi imports declined by 14% YoY and 31% from June 2023. Analysts anticipate Chinese demand for Saudi oil to recover in the long term.
The WTI price action on a daily basis appears to be forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The current support level is at 79, and a breakout below this level could potentially lead the price toward the next target of 77.

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stabilized on Tuesday following a recent selloff that interrupted a period of low volatility. Yet, crypto traders remain cautious about potential future turbulence.
Bitcoin's price stayed around $26,050 in the past 24 hours after plummeting to about $25,500 recently. This revisited a low point seen after last week's selloff, marking the lowest since mid-June. Analysts fear further declines, especially as Bitcoin trades below key technical levels, including the 200-day moving average.
In just three months, an anonymous Bitcoin wallet surged to become the world's third-largest holder, amassing a remarkable 118,000 BTC, worth about $3.08 billion at the current $26,100 price. This rapid accumulation sparked debates over its mysterious owner.
Experts suggest different possibilities. While some think it might be a cryptocurrency exchange performing a large transfer, others imaginatively link it to BlackRock, a major asset management firm. However, the BlackRock theory lacks solid evidence and has led to comical posts featuring actual black rocks.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.

 

[Z Forex]

Nvidia Earnings, Central Bank Meeting, and Cryptocurrency Stability Amidst Volatility

US INDICES:

The futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both increased by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Nvidia is set to announce its second-quarter earnings later today. According to Refinitiv's polled analysts, the company is expected to show significant year-over-year increases in both profit and revenue for the second quarter. Having risen over 200%, Nvidia is the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for 2023, as investors show enthusiasm for its AI-related opportunities.
Investors will be examining the report for indications of whether the market can resume its upward trend for the year, or if the August downturn will persist. The S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 4% this month. On Wednesday, shares saw an increase of over 1%.
S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI index for August could offer further insights into the strength of business activity and the direction of interest rates, in anticipation of a much-anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
Traders are currently predicting an 86.5% likelihood that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates in September, based on CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, their expectations for rate cuts from the central bank have been reduced.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.

USOIL

Oil prices experienced a decrease of more than 1.5% due to concerns about a global decline in manufacturing. This decline occurred just before the annual central banking meeting in Jackson Hole, US. Economic challenges were evident worldwide, as indicated by various Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys. Japan witnessed its factory activity shrinking for the third consecutive month, while Eurozone business activity, especially in Germany, fell short of expectations. The US PMI data was still awaited, and analysts were closely observing discussions among central bank officials at the Jackson Hole event to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Moreover, US crude stocks saw a reduction of approximately 2.4 million barrels. Additionally, the potential restart of a major pipeline in northern Iraq has brought up the possibility of an extra 500,000 barrels per day entering the market. It has been reported that oil exports are also resuming through the Ceyhan terminal.
The daily WTI price movement has given rise to a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Currently, there's a breakout occurring below the critical support level at 79, driving the price towards the projected target of 77.

Crypto
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained relatively stable on Wednesday, following a recent market decline that saw the largest one-day drop of the year. Analysts observe technical factors supporting a bearish trend during this period of stability.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price held above $26,000, showing stability after last week's market rout drove it from above $29,000 to around $25,500, the lowest since mid-June. This decline, the largest in 2023, ended a phase of low volatility, suggesting Bitcoin's current stagnation.
This week, Bitcoin's direction may be influenced by the stock market's response to Nvidia's earnings and updates from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. These events could impact overall risk sentiment and consequently influence cryptocurrency prices.
Technical factors unique to Bitcoin also play a role. Short-term holders face significant unrealized losses, as noted by analysts at Glassnode. Unlike long-term holders, short-term holders are sensitive to price shifts, with many buying Bitcoin above $29,000. This dynamic contributes to the current market situation.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.

 

[Z Forex]

Stocks Respond to Powell's Statements, Robinhood's Significant Bitcoin Holdings, and Oil Price Trends with Economic Factors

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were active. 3M shares surged over 5% after a Bloomberg News report revealed the company's readiness to settle lawsuits regarding defective earplugs. Stocks experienced gains in the last session following fresh statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell acknowledged ongoing economic growth and robust consumer spending. However, he emphasized the central bank's cautious approach to further rate hikes. Traders on Monday morning were factoring in an approximate 20% likelihood of a rate increase during the upcoming September Fed meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The final week of August began with major indices poised to close the month with losses. Since the beginning of the month, the Dow and S&P dropped by 3.4% and 4%, respectively, while the Nasdaq experienced a decline of around 5.3%.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level too.

USOIL

China's move to boost its struggling economy had a limited impact on oil prices, which remained largely steady. Concerns about the pace of economic growth and potential US interest rate hikes that could weaken demand persisted. To stimulate struggling markets, China halved the stamp duty on stock trading. Attention also turned to Tropical Storm Idalia, which posed a potential threat to oil and gas production in the US Gulf.
Tropical Storm Idalia was strengthening as it approached Cuba, potentially causing power outages, which could lend short-term support to oil prices despite the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on rate hikes.
Oil prices, supported by decreasing oil inventories and production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, remained above $80 per barrel. Saudi Arabia was anticipated to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day oil output reduction into October, aiming to provide continued market support.
The WTI price touched the support level near 77.50 and is now rebounding. The level at 81, where the 100MA has acted as a resistance for the past 2 instances on the 4-hour chart, might continue to do so. If there's a breakout above that level, the next target could be 82.50.

Crypto

The trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) now holds more than $3 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in a single wallet, revealed data from Arkham Intelligence. This accumulation, spanning several months, makes it the third-largest Bitcoin holder globally, trailing behind Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners have prompted speculation, including theories about BlackRock's involvement or Gemini moving user holdings. While Robinhood hasn't commented publicly, it transferred 118,300 Bitcoins to this wallet over three months, managed by Jump Trading. Despite low crypto trading volumes, this sizable Bitcoin exposure showcases Robinhood's stake in the market.
Arkham Intelligence data shows Robinhood's (HOOD) single wallet holds over $3B in Bitcoin (BTCUSD), making it the world's third-largest holder after Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners, potentially BlackRock or Gemini, remain speculative. Robinhood transferred 118,300 Bitcoin over 3 months to this wallet managed by Jump Trading, highlighting its market stake.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a robust support and resistance point in the past four instances.

 

[Z Forex]

Mixed Gains as Stocks Seek Reprieve, Oil Prices React to Supply Concerns, and Bitcoin Holders Defy Slowdown

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.
The Dow finished more than 200 points higher, which equates to a gain of about 0.6%. 3M helped the blue-chip average in the session, rallying more than 5% a day after Bloomberg News cited sources saying the conglomerate was ready to settle lawsuits that alleged some of its earplugs were faulty.
But Monday’s leg up can be characterized as a respite from what’s shaping up to be a tough month for stocks. With just three sessions left in August’s trading month, the Dow is on pace to finish 2.8% lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised for losses of 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level as well.

USOIL

Oil prices edged up due to concerns about supply disruption from an approaching hurricane in the US Gulf Coast, countering worries of a potential US interest rate hike affecting demand.
Tropical Storm Idalia, moving towards Florida, could impact crude production in the region. A recent fire at a Marathon Petroleum refinery and threats of labor action at Chevron's LNG facilities in Australia also contributed to supply concerns. However, demand worries persist in the US and China due to economic uncertainties and potential interest rate changes. The economic data later in the week could further influence oil prices.
The WTI is rebounding from the support level at 77.5 and resuming its bullish direction after the recent correction. The 84-resistance level will be the next significant hurdle to monitor, potentially impacting the current trend. Before that, the 82.00 mark will serve as a temporary level of interest.

Crypto

Despite experiencing a recent billion-dollar shakeout, long-term holders of Bitcoin persistently accumulate tokens, indicating that traders maintain a positive long-term perspective regardless of the current market slowdown. These committed holders are also retaining their spot positions, abstaining from active trading, or utilizing their Bitcoin as collateral, as per analysts at Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange.
Data provided by Bitfinex reveals that Bitcoin's long-term holders are consistently accumulating, with an unprecedented 40% remaining unmoved for over three years. This marks an all-time high for this particular metric. However, while individuals with extended holding periods of three years or more continue to amass Bitcoin, the one-year inactive supply metric portrays a more pessimistic sentiment.
Furthermore, data suggests that traders of crypto futures and options are preparing for a bearish market in the upcoming months, with Bitcoin's anticipated prices potentially dropping to as low as $22,000. This projection represents a decline of over 15% from its current levels.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a strong support and resistance point in the past four instances.

 

[Z Forex]

Slight Dips in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures, Mixed Economic Signals, and Crypto Rally

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced slight declines of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Tuesday's gains occurred despite data indicating a potential slowdown in the economy. The Conference Board's consumer sentiment index for Tuesday registered at 106.1, falling below the consensus estimate of 116 given by economists polled by Dow Jones. Furthermore, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics demonstrated a decrease in open job listings during July.
At the same time, the yield on the 2-year Treasury dropped on Tuesday. This decline hints at the possibility of an economic slowdown, which could raise investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve potentially adopting a more relaxed policy approach.
Despite the gains, the three major indexes are still set to record losses for August, with only two trading days remaining. The Nasdaq Composite is expected to finish August with a 2.8% decline, while the Dow and S&P 500 are both projected to experience drops of roughly 2%.
Investors will be closely monitoring ADP's jobs data on Wednesday, which marks the beginning of a series of labor statistics releases scheduled for this week. Following this, jobless claims figures will be released on Thursday, followed by data on nonfarm payrolls, wages, and the unemployment rate on Friday.
Additionally, investors will be keeping a close watch on GDP and pending home sales data, both of which are expected to be released on Wednesday morning.
The Nasdaq is coming back higher touching the 15370-resistance level. The 14650 still serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level too.

USOIL

Oil prices have climbed due to a decrease in US crude stockpiles and concerns arising from a Gulf hurricane. According to sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute, US crude stocks saw a larger-than-anticipated drop of 11.5 million barrels in the week ending on August 25.
Investors are also closely monitoring Hurricane Idalia, which is advancing over the Gulf of Mexico to the east of key US oil and natural gas production sites. This specific region contributes to approximately 15% of US oil output and roughly 5% of natural gas production, as reported by the Energy Information Administration
In the upcoming week ending on September 1, US oil refiners are projected to experience a decline of 119,000 barrels per day in refining capacity compared to the previous week. This forecast comes from research firm IIR Energy.
Furthermore, industry experts anticipate that Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, will prolong its voluntary production cut into October, thereby maintaining a tight oil supply.
In parallel news, the military takeover in Gabon on Wednesday could potentially disrupt the country's crude supplies and further constrict the market. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, Gabon typically exported an average of 160,000 barrels per day to Asia from May to July.
The WTI continued the bullish movement toward the next resistance level target at 84.00. Before that, the 82.00 mark will serve as a temporary level of interest.

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continued to experience gains following a significant rally on Tuesday, prompted by a favorable court ruling in favor of cryptocurrencies. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price surged by 5.5%, breaking through the $27,400 mark. On Tuesday, there was a brief surge above $28,000, attributed to Grayscale, a crypto asset manager, winning a significant appeal against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
A federal court determined that the SEC's denial of Grayscale's efforts to convert its Bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) lacked a consistent rationale. This ruling essentially paves the way for the eventual approval of an ETF linked to Bitcoin. The endorsement of a Bitcoin ETF is considered a pivotal factor that could initiate a fresh surge of interest from both retail and institutional investors in the realm of cryptocurrencies. The anticipation surrounding a Bitcoin ETF has been growing since June, driven by well-established financial entities such as BlackRock and Invesco submitting their own ETF applications. While formal approval has not yet materialized, the likelihood of its occurrence has never been higher.
Bitcoin had been trading around $26,000 for nearly two weeks after a decline from the psychologically significant $30,000 threshold. Despite these movements, the primary digital asset remains below crucial technical levels.

 

[Z Forex]

Fed Rate Hike Speculation with Economic Indicators and Crypto Trends

US INDICES:

Slight gains were observed in S&P 500 futures, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showing a 0.3% increase equivalent to 98 points. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-100 futures were also in focus. Investors processed less-than-anticipated payroll data and a forecast for annual gross domestic product growth. Despite this, the outlook hinted that the Federal Reserve might soon conclude its rate hikes, providing a boost to the stock market. Traders were also anticipating July's personal consumption expenditures data, a crucial inflation indicator for the Fed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicted a 4.2% year-over-year increase last month, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.1% rise. Additionally, Thursday morning would bring the release of weekly jobless claims data. The S&P 500 was on track for its weakest month since February, while the Nasdaq 100 looked set to experience its most substantial drop this year.
Over the past two days, the Nasdaq has displayed signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.

USOIL

Oil prices climbed as US crude inventories saw a substantial decrease and OPEC+ implemented production cuts.
US government data revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop of 10.6 million barrels in crude inventories due to heightened exports and refinery operations. The extension of Saudi Arabia's 1 million bpd oil production cut into October is expected, supplementing OPEC and Russia's cuts as part of OPEC+.
However, concerns arose over China's manufacturing activity decline in August, as the official factory survey displayed contraction, raising alarms about the global economy's second-largest player. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) inched up to 49.7 from July's 49.3, yet it remained below the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.
Investor attention also turned to US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for inflation metrics, scheduled for release and deemed important by the Federal Reserve. The US government revised the last quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.1%, down from the previous 2.4%, while private payroll growth in August displayed a significant slowdown.
The WTI maintains its bullish trajectory, steadily progressing towards the 84-resistance level. The long-term trend remains robust and bullish, suggesting the potential for further advancement given the current fundamentals.​

Crypto

The quantity of Bitcoin held in centralized exchange wallets has reached its lowest point in over five years, per a recent CoinDesk report. Data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics service, indicates a 4% decrease in exchange reserves this month, settling at 2 million BTC, approximately $54.5 billion. This marks the lowest level since January 2018.
This decline is influenced by a mix of positive and negative market factors. On the positive side, services like Copper's Clearloop are gaining popularity. Clearloop enables trades without moving assets to centralized exchanges. Matrixport partnered with Copper to enhance its prime brokerage services, allowing off-exchange settlements. Clearloop securely connects multiple exchanges, enabling Matrixport's institutional clients to trade within Copper's infrastructure and reduce risks.
Conversely, the downfall of FTX, once the world's third-largest exchange, has led to reduced trust in centralized platforms. Thielen attributes the decreased exchange balances to this loss of confidence, highlighting the importance of self-custody. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report reveals that only 9% of industry participants store coins exclusively on exchanges, opting for various custody options to minimize risk.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Surge, Labor Market Signals, Oil Prices Rise, and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Decision

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose by 0.6%. MongoDB and Dell Technologies saw gains of 6% and 9%, respectively, in extended trading, driven by stronger-than-expected earnings reports.
In August 2023, the US economy added 187,000 jobs, surpassing the revised July figure of 157,000 and market expectations of 170,000. However, it marked the third consecutive month with job gains below 200,000, signaling labor market moderation due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes aimed at combating inflation.
The data appears positive for stocks but may also indicate a slowdown in the labor market, especially with the unemployment rate rising from 3.5% to 3.8%, and average hourly earnings decreasing monthly by 0.2%.
Over the past two days, the Nasdaq has displayed signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.
​

USOIL

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday, aiming to end a two-week decline, driven by expectations of reduced oil supplies. Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1 million barrel per day production cut into October, continuing the supply restrictions orchestrated by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to bolster prices. Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, has also agreed to decrease oil exports in the coming month.
Experts anticipate that supply cuts will continue, and prices need to remain above $90 per barrel for a sustained period to encourage OPEC to return more supply to the market, as noted by National Australia Bank.
However, the tightness of the oil market also hinges on demand. The United States has shown robust demand, with commercial crude inventories decreasing in five of the past six weeks. Additionally, August U.S. job data is awaited, with expectations of slower growth that could influence the possibility of interest rate hikes.
Furthermore, hopes for demand recovery in other regions are growing. Eurozone manufacturing saw a slight improvement last month, potentially signaling better times ahead for the struggling sector. A surprising rebound in China's economy also offers hope for export-dependent economies.
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency are relying on China, the world's largest oil importer, to support oil demand in the latter part of 2023. However, concerns persist due to the slow recovery of China's economy.
The remainder of the year is expected to bring supply shortages, driven by healthy global consumption and Saudi Arabia's determination to maintain a high price floor.
The WTI maintains its bullish trajectory, challenging the 84.5 last resistance level and creating a breakout. The long-term trend remains robust and bullish, suggesting the potential for further advancement given the current fundamentals.

Crypto

The SEC has postponed its decision on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, including those from BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise, and Valkyrie Digital Assets. This delay caused Bitcoin's price to drop by 4.1% to $26,100. The SEC initiated the review process last month, with applicants aiming to launch the first spot bitcoin ETF to increase retail investment in bitcoin without requiring direct purchases. The SEC has extended comment periods for these applications, with new deadlines ranging from October 16 to October 17. The regulator typically uses the full 240-day review period, and earlier this week, a court ruled that some of the SEC's arguments against bitcoin ETFs were "arbitrary and capricious," ordering a reevaluation.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

Dow's 200-Point Decline, Oil Price Volatility, and Bitcoin's Divergence

US INDICES:

The Dow closed nearly 200 points lower on Tuesday, representing a decline of approximately 0.6%. In the same session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw decreases of 0.4% and nearly 0.1%, respectively. Before the market opening, Roku shares surged by over 10% following the announcement of several cost-cutting measures, including layoffs.
One of the contributing factors to this downward trend was the rise in oil prices, reaching their highest level since November. This increase was driven by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary supply cuts. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate futures experienced a 0.7% decline, trading at $86.07.
Investors are eagerly awaiting economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday morning, specifically focusing on the US trade deficit and the services industry. Additionally, in the afternoon, a new beige book summarizing economic activity will be published.
Furthermore, notable stocks such as GameStop, American Eagle Outfitters, and ChargePoint are set to announce their earnings after the closing bell.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday due to a stronger dollar and investors' lack of concern about supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The dollar's strength, near a six-month high, made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, impacting demand.
The market's uncertainty stemmed from a joint announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extending their voluntary oil cuts until year-end. They plan to review these cuts monthly, allowing for flexibility. The market sensed the possibility of tapering due to factors like anti-inflation efforts and the impact on Saudi oil revenues.
Near-term supply concerns pushed front-month Brent futures to nine-month highs, trading at $4.13 a barrel above prices in six months. U.S. WTI futures showed a similar trend, with the spread between front-month and six-month contracts widening to as much as $4.88 a barrel, also near nine-month highs.
Analysts cautioned that price increases might face obstacles as U.S. refineries enter their maintenance period in September-October, potentially causing a dip in demand. Moreover, higher supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya could further impact prices.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level marking a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.

Crypto

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a significant divergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), which has reached record levels. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for over 155 days and are often characterized by their unwavering commitment to not sell during volatile times, earning them the nickname "diamond hands." On the other hand, STHs are those who recently acquired their coins and are more likely to sell in response to fear, uncertainty, or profit opportunities.
Recent on-chain data reveals an intriguing trend: LTH supply has been steadily increasing in recent years, while STH supply has been decreasing. This suggests that the overall supply of Bitcoin is becoming less active, with LTHs holding a growing share of the total supply.
Currently, the gap between these two groups is the widest it has ever been. LTH supply is nearing 15 million BTC, while STH supply has fallen below 2.5 million BTC, the lowest since Bitcoin's early days in 2011. This decline in STH supply coincided with a recent sharp drop in Bitcoin's price from above $29,000 to below $26,000. However, LTHs seem unaffected by this volatility, as their supply continues to grow while STHs decrease.
Although the strength of the LTH group may not have an immediate impact on the market, over longer periods, the increasing accumulation of supply in the wallets of HODLers (LTHs) could have a bullish effect due to supply and demand dynamics.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Apple's stock declined by 2.9% following a Bloomberg News report indicating that China might expand its ban on the use of iPhones in state-owned entities and agencies. This led to a downturn in technology and semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices seeing drops of 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Seagate Technology experienced a significant decline of nearly 11%, while Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm, and Qorvo saw reductions of at least 7%.
On Thursday, a series of economic data points, including lower-than-expected jobless claims, raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might reconsider its tight monetary policy stance due to the robust labor market. Weekly jobless claims stood at 216,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 230,000, and second-quarter labor costs increased more than anticipated.
The recent rise in energy prices, coupled with a strong job market, could prompt the Federal Reserve to take further action, potentially approving more interest rate hikes, as stated by Zaccarelli.
While 93% of traders are currently pricing in a rate pause at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the possibility of additional hikes in November has increased to approximately 43%, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.
Nasdaq is coming back to the 15,300-support level as support right now and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.

USOIL

The price increase this week was primarily fueled by Saudi Arabia's decision to prolong its production cut and Russia's extension of its export cut.
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced earlier in the week that they would maintain their production curb of 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This announcement initially led to prices reaching their highest levels in nearly a year. However, prices have since retreated due to several factors.
Factors contributing to the price retreat include concerns about Chinese demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and profit-taking by investors. Despite a report indicating robust oil demand in China, uncertainty about Chinese demand persisted. China's oil imports saw significant increases in August, but doubts remained. Additionally, the strong U.S. dollar benefited from expectations that the Federal Reserve had completed its rate hikes. Profit-taking also played a role as investors cashed in on recent price surges.
The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories over the past four weeks, with the latest estimate showing a draw of over 6 million barrels, provided support for this week's rally. Some experts pointed to these inventory draws as a sign of strong domestic demand in the largest global economy.

While there is renewed speculation about oil prices reaching triple digits and OPEC+ production cuts continue to limit downside risks, concerns about demand persist and could pose challenges in the future.
The WTI touched the higher highs at the 88 level but started forming a price action signaling a possible correction and divergence with RSI on a 4H chart. If price continues the next resistance level will be around 90.

Crypto
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments recently published a report outlining why 2024 could be a pivotal year for Bitcoin. The report highlights three key factors driving this potential: Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge, the upcoming Halving event in April 2024, and the impact of ETF approvals.
First, Edwards defends Bitcoin's performance as an inflation hedge, citing its impressive 1000% rise from Q1-2020 to Q1-2021 in response to the Federal Reserve's massive QE packages. He asserts that Bitcoin was a remarkable inflation hedge during this period.
Secondly, Edwards emphasizes the significance of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April 2024, which will reduce Bitcoin's supply growth rate to 0.8% p.a., lower than that of Gold for the first time. He dismisses the notion that the Halving is already priced in and suggests that historical data and on-chain metrics indicate its importance.
Lastly, Edwards discusses the regulatory landscape, mentioning the CFTC's classification of Bitcoin as a commodity, Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF application, and the SEC's reconsideration of the Grayscale spot ETF rejection. He draws parallels to the gold ETF approval in 2004, which triggered a significant bull run.
Technically, BTC continues hovering around solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Surge on Fed Rate Expectations and Positive Tech News
S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase, and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.7% rally as the week's trading began. This uptick in stock futures was driven by the anticipation that the Federal Reserve would maintain its current interest rates, given the ongoing deceleration in inflation.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, there is a consensus among Fed members to refrain from raising rates during the central bank's upcoming meeting. Early Monday, Fed futures trading indicated a 93% likelihood that the Fed would keep rates steady on September 20, as per the CME FedWatch tool. However, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will implement further rate hikes this year, as reported by the WSJ.
Ahead of the market opening, Tesla's shares gained 6% following an optimistic assessment from Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock and predicted a substantial upcoming rally due to advancements in its autonomous software. Additionally, Qualcomm's shares surged by more than 8% after the semiconductor company announced its plans to supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026.
Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data in the coming week, particularly after a series of economic data releases last week showed stronger-than-expected performance, renewing concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider more aggressive rate hikes than previously anticipated.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Oil Prices Dip as Saudi and Russia Extend Supply Cuts
Oil prices dipped on Monday following Saudi and Russian announcements of extended supply cuts totaling 1.3 million barrels per day until year-end. Despite concerns about China's economic activity, investors shifted focus to demand indicators, anticipating reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) later in the week.
The IEA recently reduced its 2024 oil demand growth projection to 1 million bpd, citing lackluster macroeconomic conditions, while OPEC maintained its 2.25 million bpd growth forecast in its August report.
Economic factors include the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision, with the Eurozone's growth outlook revised downward due to a sluggish German economy. In the United States, the August consumer price index (CPI) data release is awaited to gauge potential interest rate hikes.
US inflation data is considered a pivotal economic figure this week, expected to impact various markets. The outlook remains uncertain amid these developments.
WTI continues to test the 88-resistance level but has formed an ascending triangle, which is typically a pattern of continuation. However, there is a divergence between the price and the RSI on a 4-hour chart. If the price continues to rise, the next resistance level will be around 90.

Crypto

Catherine Wood: AI and Bitcoin Fusion Could Transform Business
Catherine Wood, the Founder, CIO, and CEO of ARK Investment Management, LLC (ARK or ARK Invest), recently expressed on the micro-blogging platform X (formerly Twitter) that the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bitcoin has the potential to reshape the business landscape significantly. Wood highlighted that this combination could lead to substantial cost savings and increased productivity for companies.
ARK Invest has also published an article titled "Investing in Artificial Intelligence: Where Will Equity Values Surface?" In this article, it is concluded that traditional investment vehicles following broad-based indices may not effectively capture the evolving AI landscape. AI training costs have been decreasing by approximately 70% per year, making the sector a disruptive force in the broad benchmarks.
As a result, ARK Invest suggests considering alternative exposures like their Disruptive Innovation ETF (ARKK) and Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) to diversify away from large benchmarks, tap into emerging AI opportunities, and benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Surge on Fed Rate Expectations and Positive Tech News
S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase, and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.7% rally as the week's trading began. This uptick in stock futures was driven by the anticipation that the Federal Reserve would maintain its current interest rates, given the ongoing deceleration in inflation.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, there is a consensus among Fed members to refrain from raising rates during the central bank's upcoming meeting. Early Monday, Fed futures trading indicated a 93% likelihood that the Fed would keep rates steady on September 20, as per the CME FedWatch tool. However, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will implement further rate hikes this year, as reported by the WSJ.
Ahead of the market opening, Tesla's shares gained 6% following an optimistic assessment from Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock and predicted a substantial upcoming rally due to advancements in its autonomous software. Additionally, Qualcomm's shares surged by more than 8% after the semiconductor company announced its plans to supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026.
Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data in the coming week, particularly after a series of economic data releases last week showed stronger-than-expected performance, renewing concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider more aggressive rate hikes than previously anticipated.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Oil Prices Dip as Saudi and Russia Extend Supply Cuts
Oil prices dipped on Monday following Saudi and Russian announcements of extended supply cuts totaling 1.3 million barrels per day until year-end. Despite concerns about China's economic activity, investors shifted focus to demand indicators, anticipating reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) later in the week.
The IEA recently reduced its 2024 oil demand growth projection to 1 million bpd, citing lackluster macroeconomic conditions, while OPEC maintained its 2.25 million bpd growth forecast in its August report.
Economic factors include the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision, with the Eurozone's growth outlook revised downward due to a sluggish German economy. In the United States, the August consumer price index (CPI) data release is awaited to gauge potential interest rate hikes.
US inflation data is considered a pivotal economic figure this week, expected to impact various markets. The outlook remains uncertain amid these developments.
WTI continues to test the 88-resistance level but has formed an ascending triangle, which is typically a pattern of continuation. However, there is a divergence between the price and the RSI on a 4-hour chart. If the price continues to rise, the next resistance level will be around 90.

Crypto

Catherine Wood: AI and Bitcoin Fusion Could Transform Business
Catherine Wood, the Founder, CIO, and CEO of ARK Investment Management, LLC (ARK or ARK Invest), recently expressed on the micro-blogging platform X (formerly Twitter) that the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bitcoin has the potential to reshape the business landscape significantly. Wood highlighted that this combination could lead to substantial cost savings and increased productivity for companies.
ARK Invest has also published an article titled "Investing in Artificial Intelligence: Where Will Equity Values Surface?" In this article, it is concluded that traditional investment vehicles following broad-based indices may not effectively capture the evolving AI landscape. AI training costs have been decreasing by approximately 70% per year, making the sector a disruptive force in the broad benchmarks.
As a result, ARK Invest suggests considering alternative exposures like their Disruptive Innovation ETF (ARKK) and Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) to diversify away from large benchmarks, tap into emerging AI opportunities, and benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures Dip Amidst iPhone 15 Launch, Focus on August CPI Report and Fed Rate Expectations
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.1% drop. On Tuesday, Apple's stock experienced a 1.8% decrease following the unveiling of the iPhone 15 during its "Wonderlust" launch event in Cupertino.
Now, attention on Wall Street is shifting towards the release of the August CPI report scheduled for Wednesday morning. Economists are predicting a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 0.6% monthly uptick in inflation, according to Dow Jones. These figures represent an uptick from the previous month's readings of 3.2% and 0.2%, respectively. As for the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs due to their volatility, it is expected to have risen by 4.3% compared to the previous year, a slight decrease from the 4.7% annual gain observed in July. The monthly core increase is projected to be 0.2%.
Furthermore, Wall Street seems to have factored in an expectation that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. As of Wednesday morning, Fed funds futures pricing data indicates a 93% probability of rates staying unchanged.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Tight Crude Supply Helps Oil Prices Climb, With Brent Eyeing $100 Per Barrel
Oil prices reached a 10-month high due to expectations of ongoing tight crude supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to extend their crude oil production cuts by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, creating a substantial market deficit in the fourth quarter, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Bank of America analysts suggest that these supply cuts could push Brent futures above $100 per barrel before the year's end.
The spread between front-month Brent futures contracts and those for delivery six months later widened to $4.68 per barrel, indicating a tighter supply in the market.
Concerns lingered regarding the European and US economies, with investors closely watching the release of US consumer price index data for potential insights into future interest rate adjustments. There were expectations of an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank at its upcoming meeting.
The IEA adjusted its fourth-quarter demand growth forecast downward by 600,000 barrels per day, roughly matching the additional voluntary cut made by Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth in 2023 and 2024.
In Libya, four oil ports that were temporarily closed due to severe storms reopened on Wednesday.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and going toward the 90 target. Price is going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91 level followed by the 94 important level.

Crypto

FTX's Last-Minute Changes to Asset Sales
FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange currently facing bankruptcy, has made last-minute changes to its proposal for selling its Bitcoin and crypto holdings in response to concerns from the US Trustee, a branch of the Department of Justice. The original plan aimed to liquidate $3.4 billion in crypto assets, causing worries about its impact on the market.
In the initial proposal, FTX had suggested appointing Galaxy Digital as the investment manager to oversee asset sales, with a weekly cap of $100 million per token, potentially increasing to $200 million for individual tokens.
The revised proposal no longer requires advance public notice of transactions due to their potential to affect market prices. Instead, FTX will keep the US Trustee and creditor committees informed. FTX's holdings as of August 31 include Solana (SOL) at $1.16 billion, Bitcoin (BTC) at $560 million, Ethereum (ETH) at $192 million, and several other assets.
Notably, a significant portion of FTX's SOL tokens is locked until 2025-2028, preventing a sudden massive dump of SOL tokens.
FTX's last-minute changes aim to minimize market disruptions but raise transparency questions. The final decision by Judge John Dorsey in the Delaware courtroom and market reactions will be closely watched. US CPI today may have an impact on risk sentiment and on risky assets which may affect the crypto market too.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

NASDAQ
Markets Await Key Economic Data and Arm's NYSE Debut
Stock futures rose on Thursday morning as traders geared up for the release of the August Producer Price Index, which gauges wholesale inflation.
S&P 500 futures increased by 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.39% uptick.
Arm, the British chip design company established in 1990, is set to commence trading on the New York Stock Exchange today, marking its first appearance since being taken private by SoftBank in 2016. On Thursday, SoftBank's shares dipped slightly following Arm's initial public offering pricing at $51 per share.
Traders were closely watching the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 4.3% rise from the same period a year ago, in line with economists' expectations.
Headline inflation also grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% from the prior year, meeting economists' predictions.
The August CPI data is not anticipated to alter the Federal Reserve's stance, with a 97% probability of unchanged interest rates next week, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Another key inflation indicator to be released on Thursday is the August producer price index, which economists expect to have increased by 0.4%, following July's surprising 0.3% rise in wholesale prices. Additionally, retail sales and jobless claims data are scheduled to be released before the market opens.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL
Crude Oil Surges Past $93 as Supply Concerns Trump Economic Worries
Brent crude oil prices surged above $93 per barrel, marking their highest level in 10 months, as concerns over tightening supply for the remainder of 2023 outweighed worries about slowing economic growth and increasing US oil inventories. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted a market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Although a bearish U.S. inventory report caused a brief dip in prices, market sentiment remained bullish.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM noted that the market's resilience in the face of bearish inventory data demonstrates the prevailing sentiment. The tight oil balance is expected to be the primary driver of oil prices for the rest of 2023.
Gains on Oil followed a previous decline in prices triggered by a U.S. supply report indicating an increase in crude and refined product stocks.
Supply concerns continue to support oil prices as producers remain committed to limited production. OPEC recently updated its demand forecasts and predicted a supply deficit for 2023 if production cuts are maintained.
Meanwhile, investor attention remains on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. While expectations initially leaned toward a pause in rate hikes, a Reuters report suggested the ECB might raise its inflation forecast for the next year to more than 3%, making a case for higher interest rates.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and touched the 90 target. Prices are going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91-level, followed by the significant 94 level.

BTC
Franklin Templeton Joins Bitcoin ETF Race, but Caution Prevails in Crypto Markets
Franklin Templeton, a major financial institution, has entered the Bitcoin ETF race, submitting a filing with the SEC on September 12th for a Coinbase-custodied ETF called the Franklin Bitcoin ETF.
This announcement initially boosted Bitcoin's price from $25K, leading to increased social interest in Franklin. However, it's important to note that the initial excitement has faded, and experts caution against overreactions, comparing it to past ETF filings. Despite the temporary buzz, the traditional financial sector appears to be gradually embracing the idea of a Bitcoin ETF for the US market.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Strong Dow Jones Rally Fueled by Wall Street IPO Optimism
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its strongest rally in over a month, thanks to positive developments in the Wall Street IPO market and favorable economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.84% to reach 4,505.10, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, reaching 13,926.05.
Arm's shares experienced a remarkable surge of 24.7% on its first day of trading, following its IPO priced at $51 a share, which closed at $63.59 a share. This IPO has sparked hope for a revitalization of the IPO market.
August's producer price index indicated that core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations. However, the headline number rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% increase.
In addition, August's retail sales exceeded expectations, with a 0.6% increase compared to the expected 0.1% rise, and excluding autos, retail sales also rose by 0.6%, surpassing the forecasted 0.4% increase.
Nasdaq is challenging the 15600-level aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. The risk in the market today will help the Nasdaq make new highs, especially with the ARM performance.

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise for Third Week on Production Cuts
Oil prices were set for a third consecutive weekly increase due to a combination of factors. Saudi Arabia, with support from Russia, extended its production cuts, leading to a decrease in global oil inventories. This move pushed both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks to their highest levels since November. Additionally, positive signs from the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, boosted optimism for oil demand growth. China's industrial output and retail sales showed better-than-expected growth in August. Oil refinery processing also increased significantly from the previous year.
Furthermore, the outlook for borrowing costs is improving. While US headline inflation rose in August, the core figure moderated, potentially hinting at a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the possibility of a final increase in November remains open. The European Central Bank recently implemented its tenth consecutive increase but suggested that it might stop there.
Wall Street is increasingly favoring oil trading as confidence in the OPEC+ decision to tighten oil output remains strong. Analysts believe that the oil market will remain tight in the fourth quarter of the year.
WTI touched its 91-confluence point target. Technically, this level is important for a correction, and we are currently witnessing a slight pullback in prices. This correction may take the price back towards the 88-support level. If a breakout occurs above the current resistance level, the next target will be 93.80.

Crypto

BTC Surges, Altcoins Rise on Positive China Data, SOL Faces Liquidation Risk
As Bitcoin (BTC) surges above $26,600, alternative cryptocurrencies like Solana's SOL face potential liquidation of leveraged positions. Positive data on China's economy has boosted confidence, driving the prices of altcoins such as XRP, Ether (ETH), SOL, Tron's TRX, and Dogecoin (DOGE) higher. However, SOL saw an 8% drop on Monday due to concerns about FTX's Solana holdings being sold off in a court filing, making bearish altcoin traders vulnerable to liquidation.
Funding rates in perpetual futures contracts have been consistently negative, indicating bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, open interest in SOL's futures has increased by over 16%, reaching a one-month high at $338 million, according to Coinglass data. These factors suggest growing bearish bets on SOL.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 level but the correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Dip Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting
On Monday morning, US stock futures experienced a slight dip as investors turned their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures saw minor declines of around 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in negative territory, marking their second consecutive week of losses.
Investors have high expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during this week's policy meeting. Traders are eager to gain a better understanding of the central bank's position on inflation going forward.
Recent inflation data largely aligned with economists' predictions. Although the producer price index exceeded expectations, the Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, matched the anticipated figure. Furthermore, the core consumer price index for August showed a slightly higher increase than expected, rising by 0.3% month-over-month compared to the estimated 0.2%.
Nasdaq is forming a price concentration on the daily chart, indicating weakness in the price. The next key level to watch is the median line, followed by the 100MA.

USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Surge on Supply Deficit Concerns and Geopolitical Factors
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 72 cents to $91.49 as of September 18, driven by concerns of a widening supply deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. These prices mark the highest levels since November and are on pace for the largest quarterly gains since the first quarter of 2022, influenced by geopolitical factors.
Citi recently predicted that Brent prices could exceed $100 per barrel within the year. Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) until the year-end.
The sustainability of these supply cuts into the following year remains uncertain, as higher prices could incentivize increased US shale oil production. Meanwhile, concerns persist regarding oil demand, particularly in China, a major driver of global demand. China's post-pandemic economic recovery has been sluggish, although its oil imports have remained robust. The uncertain pace of economic progress poses a significant demand-side risk.
Despite concerns about reduced demand from Europe and China due to economic slowdowns, the oil market has experienced a relentless price rally, reflecting the tightness in supply. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will be closely watched for their interest rate decisions. There is growing consensus that peak interest rates may be approaching, as inflationary pressures have been effectively managed. However, the timing of central banks' rate cuts remains uncertain, with potential implications for economic growth and oil demand.
WTI is breaking the 91 level and touching the 92 going toward the 93-resistance level. The trend continues bullish the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Despite 'Death Cross' as Fed Rate Expectations Drive Market
BTC has surged by 8% since the appearance of the "death cross" on its daily chart on September 11. This uptick is attributed to traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain steady interest rates for the remainder of the year. Bitcoin reached $27,220, its highest point since August 31, fueled by the belief that the death cross signal, which occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, is not a reliable indicator on its own.
Market sentiment is influenced by Fed funds futures, which suggest a 99% likelihood that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged this week, along with a 69% chance of no action in November and a 58% probability of the same in December. The Fed has already raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 to combat inflation, which played a role in the previous year's crypto crash.
Analysts anticipate that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate forecast, but some do not expect the final projected rate hike to materialize. The recent bitcoin rally may be linked to the perception that the Fed's tightening cycle is concluding, as the cryptocurrency is highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations due to its liquidity-driven nature.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 nut a correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. The BTC needs to break the 28000 resistance area to form a new hope of possible bullish direction toward the 31000 area.

 

[Z Forex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Federal Reserve's September Meeting
Stock futures traded relatively unchanged on Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for the commencement of the Federal Reserve's two-day September policy meeting. S&P 500 futures also remained stable, while Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a slight 0.1% decline.
It is not anticipated that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, as traders are currently pricing in a 99% probability of the central bank abstaining from a rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks pricing in Fed funds futures. As of early Tuesday, traders are assigning only a 29% likelihood of a rate hike in November.
On Monday, six out of the 11 major S&P sectors ended the session positively, with energy leading the way with a 0.7% gain, while consumer discretionary was the poorest-performing sector, posting a decline of approximately 1%.
In terms of technical analysis, the Nasdaq is showing a concentration of price on the daily chart and has retraced towards the 15225-support level, suggesting vulnerability in the price leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The next significant level to monitor is the median line, followed by the 100-day moving average (100MA).

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise on Supply Concerns Despite Weaker US Shale Output
Oil prices climbed for a fourth consecutive day on concerns of a supply deficit. Weak U.S. shale output, coupled with extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, drove prices higher.
In September 2023, U.S. shale oil production is set to drop for the third consecutive month, reaching 9.39 million bpd, down from 9.433 million bpd in August and a record 9.476 million bpd in July, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Permian Basin leads the decline, with a projected 26,000 bpd reduction, followed by the Eagle Ford Basin, expected to drop by 17,000 bpd. This marks the largest monthly decline since December last year. Despite this, the EIA maintains its forecast of record U.S. oil production for 2023, at 12.76 million bpd, with an increase to 13.09 million bpd in 2024. Rising oil prices persist despite improved drilling efficiency.
Analysts cited concerns over supply constraints and technical factors as supporting oil prices. However, they cautioned that the market's ascent into overbought territory could leave it vulnerable to a correction.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revised the company's long-term demand outlook, projecting global demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, defended OPEC+ supply cuts, emphasizing the need for light-handed regulation to curb volatility and expressing uncertainty about Chinese demand, European growth, and central bank actions to address inflation.
WTI is continuing up touching the 92.6 level. The trend is bullish and the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.


Crypto

Crypto Prices Rally Ahead of Federal Reserve's Rate Decision, Bitcoin Shows Resilience
Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, experienced a rise in prices on Tuesday as traders displayed bullish sentiment in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Bitcoin's price saw a 1% increase in the past 24 hours, reaching approximately $27,100. However, it retreated from its peak above $27,400, the highest level this month. Bitcoin has been hovering around the $26,000 mark for over a month, characterized by minimal volatility and trading activity as investor interest waned.
Similar to traditional stock markets like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, the crypto market is poised to react to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While the central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs steady, investors are closely watching for signals regarding future rate hikes in November or the maintenance of current rates. Historically, higher interest rates have weighed on both Bitcoin and stocks, as investors tend to favor risk-free assets during such periods.
Before the Fed's decision, traders have become notably bullish, particularly in Bitcoin perpetual futures, the most liquid market in the cryptocurrency world. Open interest on Binance, the largest crypto exchange, increased by 3% in the past 24 hours to exceed $3.2 billion, with a prevailing bullish sentiment, according to Coinglass data. Analyst Yuya Hasegawa from Bitbank noted that some crypto market participants might be getting ahead of themselves in anticipation of the Fed meeting, where rate hikes are not expected. This surge in Bitcoin's price may slow down as no significant economic data releases are expected until after the conclusion of the Fed meeting later this month.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues being bearish supported by the 25000 while 27400 is the resistance area. The BTC needs to break the 28000-resistance area to make a new possible bullish movement toward the 31000 area.