Portfolio if it was to all kick off!

[Nowler]

How might you adjust your portfolio if you felt military conflict between great nations was imminent?

In this situation, other nations could get involved too.

What does well during times of war and global instability?

 

[tomorton]

The other way of thinking about this is what can I be ready to short in a time of war?

 

[1nvest]

This table can only tell us what happened in the past of course, and this relates to the 30 years between 1914 and 1945 and gives a country by country snapshot
both equity and bonds did well, primarily due to the fiscal policy at the time: namely reduced interest rates.
The other key thing to note was who won..germany's T bills nose dived
elsewhere, around the world at the time, equities between 1914 and 1918 for example went up significantly (Dow up 100% between 1915 and 1917 once it reopened after 6 months)
lastly due to demand and scarcity, commodities soared

i read somewhere that the war if its already well expected, equities don't suffer as much compared to something "kicking off" as you put it. they do however tend to recover quickly, again due mostly to the fiscal policy adopted

the chart of the Dow clearly displays the overall effect of the cycles within the period
clearly signs of hysteria leading out of the war, and then back to despair in the 30's

 

[Nowler]

Hmmm...
I'll have to put some serious thought into this...

My first thought was surely the price of Boeing, Airbus, Olin Corporation etc.. would go up.
Being manufacturers of military craft/ammunition.

This thought is still in the very early stages

 

[1nvest]

Hmmm...
I'll have to put some serious thought into this...

My first thought was surely the price of Boeing, Airbus, Olin Corporation etc.. would go up.
Being manufacturers of military craft/ammunition.

This thought is still in the very early stages

problem with aviation such as boeing, airbus etc they are still reliant on commercial activity. boeing at the start of the gulf war dropped 50%. Aviation has had it, for some time at least. Lockheed may be an alternative, BAe (british aerospace) make missile defence systems another. then there's construction would be a winner i would have thought

Of course you could just wait, check the sector charts and you will soon find which sectors begin to climb
rather than individual stocks and trying to second guess, the sector ETF(s) might be a little less volatile whilst still getting that exposure to its participants. choose the two or three with the highest relative strength, and switch to the strongest ones. a strategy that is proven to outperform

 

[Nowler]

problem with aviation such as boeing, airbus etc they are still reliant on commercial activity. boeing at the start of the gulf war dropped 50%. Aviation has had it, for some time at least. Lockheed may be an alternative, BAe (british aerospace) make missile defence systems another. then there's construction would be a winner i would have thought

Of course you could just wait, check the sector charts and you will soon find which sectors begin to climb
rather than individual stocks and trying to second guess, the sector ETF(s) might be a little less volatile whilst still getting that exposure to its participants. choose the two or three with the highest relative strength, and switch to the strongest ones. a strategy that is proven to outperform

That's some food for though, thanks.
A sudden drop in value in something like Boeing wouldn't be a bad thing though.
Not for someone waiting to invest in it anyway...

If I was waiting on the wings with some cash, then a spike down would be a great entry opportunity.
The US government would be reluctant to let Boeing fail.

I assume you are referring to Covid when you say "Aviation has had it, for some time at least"?
I think Covid will be a distant memory by the time we had such a military conflict, so the commercial industry will be healthier by then.

I dont place huge importance on positioning my portfolio for such a conflict just yet.
I've my eye on a different play for the next decade or so anyway, but I like to keep thinking...searching...
At least then should something become apparent or imminent, then I have a head start on those who haven't been thinking ahead.

 

[Nowler]

I am not prepared for a war like situation. Do I need to be ready whenever the need be?

How would you feel if this, or anything happened that negatively impacted you?
Would you then wish you had been better prepared?

 

[NVP]

How might you adjust your portfolio if you felt military conflict between great nations was imminent?

In this situation, other nations could get involved too.

What does well during times of war and global instability?

investments - go to cash and wait for dust to settle plus load up a little on Gold
Forex wise i would probably go nuts deep buying USD , Yen and CHF.....

 

[Nowler]

investments - go to cash and wait for dust to settle plus load up a little on Gold
Forex wise i would probably go nuts deep buying USD , Yen and CHF.....

Are you basing the forex part purely on the safe haven status effect?

In regards to going to cash - I guess going to cash and buying at cheaper prices later is easier than trying to guess what will do well.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Long Gold .
Dalio created his All Weather with Gold exactly for this reason.

 

[1nvest]

Long Gold .
Dalio created his All Weather with Gold exactly for this reason.

No he didn't
Dalio introduced gold in the portfolio to "weather" periods of inflation
THATS why dalio introduced gold. Its an all weather portfolio
times of inflationary (commodities)
times of economic growth (equities)
times of deflation (bond/fixed income)
and bond was further mixed for fluctuation in interest rates, where long term bonds would have been unduly impacted

inflation and deflation is a result of imbalances in money supply which can happen irrespective of times of war