Political betting (in the UK)

[tomorton]

Interesting political developments today.

Odds on Hillary Clinton have pushed out to 1.57 as she is announced to be suffering from pneumonia. Donald Trump's odds have come down to 2.37. I know pneumonia's a serious thing but I'm tempted to double up on Hillary Clinton.

There's a new market available, following David Cameron's announcement he is standing down, on the Witney by-election: 1.04 Conservative, 11.00 Labour, 15.00 UKIP, 21.00 Liberal Democrats. 1.04 is too low to be interesting.

 

[timsk]

. . .Odds on Hillary Clinton have pushed out to 1.57 as she is announced to be suffering from pneumonia. Donald Trump's odds have come down to 2.37. I know pneumonia's a serious thing but I'm tempted to double up on Hillary Clinton.

She's gonna lose Tom, she's gonna lose, don't do it!

 

[tomorton]

The next French presidential election is scheduled to be held in two rounds of voting, on 23/04 and 07/05 next year. If you voulez take an early punt on this one, voici les odds -
2.50 Alain Juppe
3.75 Nicolas Sarkozy
5.00 Marine Le Pen
7.00 Emmanuel Macron
10.00 Francois Hollande
21.00 Manuel Valls
26.00 Francois Bayrou
34.00 Jean-Luc Melenchon

 

[counter_violent]

The next French presidential election is scheduled to be held in two rounds of voting, on 23/04 and 07/05 next year. If you voulez take an early punt on this one, voici les odds -
2.50 Alain Juppe
3.75 Nicolas Sarkozy
5.00 Marine Le Pen
7.00 Emmanuel Macron
10.00 Francois Hollande
21.00 Manuel Valls
26.00 Francois Bayrou
34.00 Jean-Luc Melenchon

Le Pen looks good value

 

[tomorton]

Maybe of more direct interest to ourselves - BoE's next interest rate rise to be not before 2018 - 1.08.

 

[tomorton]

Tomorrow we get the announcement of who's next Labour leader. Jeremy Corbyn is ahead at 1.01, about as low as it gets: Owen Smith is 17.00. This is the last chance to back one of them, but in reality there's nothing to be done here. 1.01 is pointless.

As is the Conservatives to win the Witney by-election at 1.03.

The next UN Secretary General is a much more interesting game, with the favourite, some guy called Antonio Guterres all the way out at 3.50. Now that's a nice return, but the finish is away off at the end of the year.

 

[tomorton]

Jeremy Corbyn has won the Labour leadership contest. We might even see London markets surge a little on Monday.

 

[tomorton]

Maybe this is now more relevant? -
When Will Jeremy Corbyn Leave The Post Of Labour Leader?
11.00 - 2016
7.00 - 2017
11.00 - 2018
11.00 - 2019
2.50 - 2020
2.50 - 2021 Or Later

 

[timsk]

Tom,
What are the prices offered for Labour winning the next general election? Gotta be worth a £10 punt!
Tim.

 

[tomorton]

Hi Tim -

At this moment -
Conservative = 1.73
Labour = 7.00
No Overall Majority = 2.62

So the bookies rate Labour as the least likely, and an unlikely, option.

They also offer a market on the year of the next election, with 2020 as a far ahead favourite -
2016 = 7.00
2017 = 3.25
2018 = 13.00
2019 = 15.00
2020 = 1.83

But the election and its outcome are complicated, I suggest, by who is Labour leader. The bookies offer odds on when Jeremy Corbyn will cease to be leader -
2016 = 11.00
2017 = 7.00
2018 = 11.00
2019 = 11.00
2020 = 2.50
2021 or later = 2.50

So I guess the money favours the next General Election not being until 2020, the conservatives win, and Jeremy Corbyn vacates the leader's seat in the same year. As a result?

Of course, if he leaves office before the election, the odds will change but by that point anything could have happened. One thing I don't expect is a break-away new Labour party - I suspect the anti-Corbyn MPs will just wait for him to stand down, he'll be 71 in 2020.

 

[tomorton]

Haven't seen anything like this before - there isn't long to get a bet on but its Theresa May Word Bingo. In her closing speech at the Conservative Party conference, the odds for her using the following phrases are -
Brexit (does) means Brexit 1.01
David Cameron 1.10
Jeremy Corbyn 1.10
Scotland/Scottish 1.25
Trigger Article 50 1.33
Northern Powerhouse 1.44
Boris 1.50
Affordable Housing 1.57
Human Rights Act 1.67
Austerity 2.00
Budget Surplus 2.00
Donald Trump 4.00
Exchange Rate 4.00
Heathrow 4.00
Shoes 4.00
Snap Election 4.00
Hinkley Point 7.00
Delia Smith 11.00
Three Brexiteers 34.00

I would have thought, "Oh my God, what have I done?" would have been a contender too but there you go.

 

[tomorton]

UKIP leader Diane James standing down after 18 days
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37558485

The upside for us is bets are already open on a new, new leader -
1.50 Steven Woolfe
6.00 Paul Nuttall
6.00 Suzanne Evans
9.00 Nigel Farage
11.00 Arron Banks
15.00 Lisa Duffy
17.00 Douglas Carswell
21.00 Neil Hamilton
21.00 Peter Whittle
26.00 Raheem Kassam
34.00 David Coburn

 

[counter_violent]

UKIP leader Diane James standing down after 18 days
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37558485

The upside for us is bets are already open on a new, new leader -
1.50 Steven Woolfe
6.00 Paul Nuttall
6.00 Suzanne Evans
9.00 Nigel Farage
11.00 Arron Banks
15.00 Lisa Duffy
17.00 Douglas Carswell
21.00 Neil Hamilton
21.00 Peter Whittle
26.00 Raheem Kassam
34.00 David Coburn

Smacks of a shoe in.

Steven Woolfe was favorite last time but didn't submit his papers on time.

@ 1.50 I'd say it's a done deal !

 

[tomorton]

Smacks of a shoe in.

Steven Woolfe was favorite last time but didn't submit his papers on time.

@ 1.50 I'd say it's a done deal !

As long as he actually stands, I don't think we've heard anything from the man himself yet.

 

[tomorton]

Woolfe says he's standing so I'm backing him at 1.40 - only dropped a bit after his announcement so happy with that.

 

[tomorton]

It sounds like Steven Woolfe is recovering, I'm sure nobody wants to hear any more bad news there.

The bookies have resumed the UKIP leadership bets offered, suspended while his situation was unclear -
1.40 Steven Woolfe (no change)
4.00 Paul Nuttall (slightly better odds)
5.00 Nigel Farage (better odds)
6.00 Suzanne Evans (no change)
11.00 Raheem Kassam (much better)
15.00 Arron Banks (worse)
17.00 Lisa Duffy
26.00 Neil Hamilton
26.00 Peter Whittle
29.00 David Coburn
34.00 Douglas Carswell (the big loser out of this re-set)

 

[tomorton]

Its all going pear-shaped for Donald Trump. His odds pushed out now to 4.00, Hillary Clinton's down to 1.25, lowest quote for her I can recall

If you're going to take a position on Hillary Clinton, some time before tonight's second TV debate would probably be a good idea, could be last chance for a decent price.

 

[tomorton]

The longest-term political bet bet available? -
When Will Labour Next Form A Majority Govt In The UK?
5.50 - In Or Before 2020
3.25 - Between 2021-2025 Inclusive
3.75 - Between 2026-2030 Inclusive
2.75 - 2031 Onwards

2031! Anyone fancy placing a bet to run for the next 15 years?

 

[tomorton]

Up-coming dates to remember for your political bets -

20 Oct - Witney by-election
08 Nov - US Presidential election
31 Dec - Liam Fox remains in cabinet?
31 Dec - BoE rate rise?
01 Jan - Jeremy Hunt remains Secretary of State for Health?

Date expected to be announced soon - UKIP leadership election.

 

[tomorton]

Another route to trade the US Presidential election - bet on the outcome per State. Looking at the favourites in each state, the majority are now showing very low scores for their favourite parties in each case, typical is Alabama 1.02 for the Republicans, versus 15.00 for the Democrats: a safe bet for Trump but at 1.02 what's the point for us?

More interesting favourites would include -
Arizona 1.50, Democrats
Georgia 1.40, Republicans
Iowa 1.44, Democrats
Utah 1.57, Republicans

Arizona has only gone to the Democrats once in recent times (since the one-sided Democrat victory of LB Johnson in 1964). Republicans there are currently 2.50 so this is a close race.

If you prefer a long shot, what about New York to go to the Republicans at 29.00? (Democrats here are 1.00 to win, so truly a pointless bet).

See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_election_results_by_state