Please give your judgement on my TA

[foghorn]

Newbie alert!

Armed with JJ Murphy and Metastock I am trying to get to grips with TA and am early in the learning phase with a view to trading seriously at some point in the (currently distant) future, so please give me your judgement on my analysis. Please be as critical as you like as it is all part of the learning process.

I'm looking at the FTSE cash daily chart. I see that we've now cleared the previous year's high and resistance at 4218. The old now-broken uptrend support line is at this level also. If we can test this level and bounce off I'm looking to be long with an initial target in the 4300-4325 area which I think is a very weak resistance level, above that nothing until 4450-60 (August 2002 resistance). Stop at 4195 for a minimum 2:1 R:R assuming a 4130 entry, more with better entries/exits.

I feel initially that I am over-analysing this, particularly some of the weaker resistance levels.

Anyone got any thoughts?

Time will tell I suppose

cheers!

(You'll have to check the resistance for yourself on the chart below. If I zoomed out it got too small)

 

[bonsai]

foggy
have you posted the wrong chart ?

we closed on friday at 4161.

 

[foghorn]

No, I've posted the right chart, I'm just being a complete muppet.

Learned lesson number 1. Check the last date on your chart and don't rely on your data to be up-to-date.

Yes. The last date is the 15th August. Eeek. Thankfully I put the 'if it bounces' condition into the trade as it didn't bounce!

And would you believe I spent all day watching the FTSE fall yesterday on Yahoo as well. My memory is not as good as it used to be. Oh well.

Not sure whether to delete this thread now, but I'll leave it as enough people have read it...

Managed to enter t2w in a blaze of glory, ahem

 

[rglenn]

Foghorn welcome to T2W

Don't worry about initial mistakes- These things are all part of your training to becoming a succesful trader.

Mistakes I have made are pressing the sell button when It should have been the Buy button. Strangely enough I did this about 3 times before I learnt my lesson.

Anyway the markets looks to be in a upward trend at the moment. I am looking for an opportunity to go short when the time comes and believe me I will be pressing the right button this time around.

 

[barjon]

Foghorn

welcome.

ah, but when is a bounce a bounce? After your chart end came
a pullback when the ftse 4 times closed above June 207 high and
twice intraday powered up through your 4230 entry point.
Without the benefit of knowing what happpend next might
someone have concluded it was bouncing?

imo follow what it's doing and use TA to find points where it
MIGHT do something different. If it does, follow it and trade it.

good trading

jon

 

[oatman]

Foghorn, now imagine you are bearish and look at the same information. I think you might surprise yourself . Always look at the contra view, it will strengthen or kill your opinion.

 

[foghorn]

Good advice from everyone - thanks