Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

[penrithem]

There you go penrithem, my pleasure...click on search for a post...enter the title of the thread and it wiil come up ...4th page I think.

Thanks for that. I've actually got my threads mixed up, saw the reference on the other thread. Apologies all. FYI, I received a private message to say it was a great thread!

Cheers

 

[CYOF]

Another one for you to view.

Black Swan & the Magnificent Seven Vs The Golden Bulldozer

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=16863

 

[laptop1]

Another one for you to view.

Black Swan & the Magnificent Seven Vs The Golden Bulldozer

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=16863

You getting more like SOCRATES day be day with your quotes.

 

[SOCRATES]

Update:~
######

Total Realised Profits so far...................................................................................................£5255=

(this is not including trade E, carried out by CYOF)

Open Positions:~

Trades D, 6F, 7 and 9. all in FTSE 100 Apr 5925 puts, totalling 23 puts
written at a mean average price of
48.8260 each.

Market price to buy last seen at close to buy is 21


therefore current unrealised profit for these is (27.826 X 23 X 10) =.................................................................................................................................................... £6400=

....................And................


Trade number 12...

3 X FTSE 100 Index puts 6225 May written @ 115.5 and last seen 28

therefore Current Unrealised Profit for this one is (3 X 87.5X 10 ) = ..........................£ 2625=

Plus

Trade 15

6 Apr 6175 Written @ 84

Closing Price 52.5

(6 X 31.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit..........................................................................................£1890=

Plus....

Trade 15A

Written 3 May6225 @ 110
Closing Price 87.5

(3 x22.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit...............................................................................................£675=

Plus ....

Trade 16
Written 3May 6075 @ 74.5
Closing Price 56.5
(3 X 18 X10)= Unrealised Profit...............................................................................................£520=

Plus....

Trade17
Written 6 Mar6175 @ 42.5
Closing Price 21.5
(6 X 21 X10) =Unrealised Profit............................................................................................. £1260=

Plus...

Trade 19
Written2 May5925 @ 62
Closing Price 36
(2 X 26 X10)= Unrealised Profit.................................................................................................£520=

Plus...

Trade20
1 May6225 @ 116
Closing Price 87.5
(1 X28.5 X10)= Unrealised Profit................................................................................................£285=


Sub total of Unrealised Profits so far................................................................................ £14,175 =

Plus

Realised Profits so far carried down......................................................................................£5255=

Total Profits so far................................................................................................................... £19,430=
###############...................................................................................................................########

And all in under a month...in fact a total of only 18 trading days...

And...not to rub it in....but because it is a fact...every single position is profitable and has been profitable from the word go.....may this serve to please my fans and infuriate my detractors, ........
I Thank You Once Again.... ...

 

[laptop1]

A pointless exercise

 

[Glenn]

A pointless exercise

Agreed, and also :-

"There is an old saying on trading floors:
Watch the trader who makes consistent money. He is the one who is going to blow up."

"........is like selling far out-of-the-money options. It makes consistent money, but occasionally realizes a dramatic loss. It is a negatively skewed trading strategy."

www.trade2win.com/boards/attachment.php?attachmentid=25534
Courtesy of Profitaker.

Glenn

 

[dc2000]

19K in the time sounds impressive but without details on margin required to hold these positions and also a comparison Call buying strategy the point of the thread has not been proved

A shame really as I was genuinely interested when the thread was started to see it proven

 

[Crap Buddist]

I read a member bought an S 'n' P call option on another thread, returned 160% over the week ,with a limited risk , I think .

a one off ? an edge? edge of buyers over writers ? I can see the logic on the apparent 3 to 1 against expiry argument ,but if the buyer of options engages in very selective call buying , when the market is anticipated to spring and the buyer can spot excellent cost of option to underlying at the time then he may be showing a super edge.

Im open either way but suspect its traders edge.

That call buyer of the sp option is a white crow.

 

[Glenn]

19K in the time is impressive ........... A shame really as I was genuinely interested when the thread was started to see it proven

Why impressive DC ?
You can see all the Put premiums sitting there on Liffe waiting to be plucked and the money goes straight into your account. Just wait for a dip in the market. Do a dummy run and try it yourself.
That's the point - any fool ( I don't mean you) can do that. And they can repeat it, but overall the mathematical odds are against them.
It's easy to write puts and collect money, the real hard skilled part is when it all goes quickly wrong and you can recover the situation or limit the damage if you're lucky. There is no evidence of that yet other than mention of rolled-up newspapers. You might want to see a skilled recovery before you make your mind up. And then ask whether you could do the same every time the bomb goes off. It only takes one to blow you up.
And all that without the margin aspects as you say.

I'm surprised that you thought that an exercise such as this would prove an edge. Scientifically you have to show that a proposition is true in all cases before is can be considered proven.
An unproven proposition for which there is some sort of empirical evidence is known as Conjecture.

Glenn

 

[roguetrader]

The real skill in 'edges' as people like to call them, is not in finding them, for there are many out there related to time and circumstance, it's knowing when and how to apply them, and how to manage them.

 

[dc2000]

Why impressive DC ?

that will teach me to start posting before having 4 coffee's, the sentence should read "sounds impressive" the thread was of interest as I have often bought options against a futures position and I thought it might give me a greater insight in to some long term options writting strategies rather than the scalping trades that have taken place

 

[starspacer]

Why impressive DC ?
You can see all the Put premiums sitting there on Liffe waiting to be plucked and the money goes straight into your account. Just wait for a dip in the market. Do a dummy run and try it yourself.
That's the point - any fool ( I don't mean you) can do that. And they can repeat it, but overall the mathematical odds are against them.
It's easy to write puts and collect money, the real hard skilled part is when it all goes quickly wrong and you can recover the situation or limit the damage if you're lucky. There is no evidence of that yet other than mention of rolled-up newspapers. You might want to see a skilled recovery before you make your mind up. And then ask whether you could do the same every time the bomb goes off. It only takes one to blow you up.
And all that without the margin aspects as you say.

I'm surprised that you thought that an exercise such as this would prove an edge. Scientifically you have to show that a proposition is true in all cases before is can be considered proven.
An unproven proposition for which there is some sort of empirical evidence is known as Conjecture.

Glenn

There is a flaw in this argument. The flaw is that the mathematical odds you and pt quote inherently assume that the options writer has no edge. The mathematics says that if the writer keeps writing forever, then at some point, and assuming he does not have an edge, he will blow up. Very true, but I believe Soc is saying that he does have the necessary 'edge' to avoid a blowout. And, whilst he continues to be profitable, no-one can truthfully claim that he does not have this 'edge'. The trading zephyr is with him, so to speak.

 

[SOCRATES]

There is a flaw in this argument. The flaw is that the mathematical odds you and pt quote inherently assume that the options writer has no edge. The mathematics says that if the writer keeps writing forever, then at some point, and assuming he does not have an edge, he will blow up. Very true, but I believe Soc is saying that he does have the necessary 'edge' to avoid a blowout. And, whilst he continues to be profitable, no-one can truthfully claim that he does not have this 'edge'. The trading zephyr is with him, so to speak.

Exactlly, quite so.

 

[SOCRATES]

that will teach me to start posting before having 4 coffee's, the sentence should read "sounds impressive" the thread was of interest as I have often bought options against a futures position and I thought it might give me a greater insight in to some long term options writting strategies rather than the scalping trades that have taken place

Yes, but you have for a very long time persisted in incurring my displeasure, have you not ?
You are not alone guilty of these misdemeanours with regard to me on these boards. Therefore you now have to suffer the consequences of your ill advised transgressions and share them collectively with your fellow transgressors, and this is the result.

 

[counter_violent]

Yes, but you have for a very long time persisted in incurring my displeasure, have you not ?
You are not alone guilty of these misdemeanours with regard to me. Therefore you have to suffer the consequences of your ill advised transgressions and share them collectively with your fellow transgressors, and this is the result.

 

[SOCRATES]

Yes...indeed....

 

[dc2000]

Yes, but you have for a very long time persisted in incurring my displeasure, have you not ?
You are not alone guilty of these misdemeanours with regard to me on these boards. Therefore you now have to suffer the consequences of your ill advised transgressions and share them collectively with your fellow transgressors, and this is the result.

I dont know how I will sleep at night :cheesy:

Come on Soc Big Smile

Thats it
Big Smile

 

[Glenn]

There is a flaw in this argument. The flaw is that the mathematical odds you and pt quote inherently assume that the options writer has no edge. The mathematics says that if the writer keeps writing forever, then at some point, and assuming he does not have an edge, he will blow up. Very true, but I believe Soc is saying that he does have the necessary 'edge' to avoid a blowout. And, whilst he continues to be profitable, no-one can truthfully claim that he does not have this 'edge'. The trading zephyr is with him, so to speak.

With respect sir I think the flaw is in your argument for two reasons:-

1. The argument is not about the Writer as a person with skill or edge, it is about Writing itself.

2. There is no evidence in this thread of 'blow-out avoidance', which is where the real skill lies.
You can Write options to your hearts content and pick up the premiums. You are picking up time-bombs for a wage, or what appears to be a wage because the job has only just started and you got paid something in advance.
It is how you perform bomb-disposal that is where the skill lies. You can pass it to someone else at a cost (buy it back) or it may fizzle out by expiry, or it may go off.
If you are still holding it when it is about to go off, then unless you can predict the change in the market in advance then you will be left holding it when it goes off. You then have to do your best to limit the damage if the market allows, and it might not; that is the risk.
And you may yet see an example of succesful explosion-avoidance here, but that does not mean that it works every time, or that you yourself can do it.
And if you believe that anyone has the skill just because they say so without evidence, then one can only assume that you are hearing what you what to hear and denying what you don't.

It only takes one bomb to go off in the right way and you are toast.

As the man who jumped off the cliff and was half-way down said "So far, so good".

Glenn

 

[starspacer]

I sense the time is nearing when the rolled up newspapers will be smartly thwacked across the black swan.

DC, Glenn, DB, please, no more bs.

 

[starspacer]

....unless you can predict the change in the market in advance...Glenn

Precisely, all is known in advance.