Place your bets: are interest rates going to rise in 2010???

[Rossini]

Thoughts....

 

[GammaJammer]

Yes.

There. I've said it.

 

[blancspa]

what are the odds and which broker?

 

[Rossini]

what are the odds and which broker?

Which I knew a broker that would take on a bet like that....

 

[advfntrader]

of course they will....can't stay this low for long!

 

[gooseman]

what odds do you think are fair then rossini?

 

[Rossini]

Haven't a clue, but it would be interesting to see what odds would be given.

 

[MrGecko]

Can one of you chaps post what the futures are pricing?

 

[gooseman]

M10 99.11
U10 98.68
Z10 98.20

3m libor is 61.375 bps

 

[MrGecko]

thanks mate, but I meant the bloomberg screen that shows a histogram of rates over rate decision dates - it shows probability of rates being ABC on XYZ..??

 

[Mr. Charts]

UK
March .5%
June .75% (after post-election budget)
Sept 1.00%
Dec 1.25%

 

[PualoP]

thanks mate, but I meant the bloomberg screen that shows a histogram of rates over rate decision dates - it shows probability of rates being ABC on XYZ..??

This?

 

[MrGecko]

yeah thats the one.. any chance you could post a screenshot of the "future implied probability" tab..??

:cheesy:

 

[PualoP]

yeah thats the one.. any chance you could post a screenshot of the "future implied probability" tab..??

:cheesy:

No probs

 

[dimsdaletraders]

If the UK's long-term sovereign rating gets a downgrade, rates will have to go up before 2011 to support the pound, but apart from that proviso, my best guess is that they'll stay at 0.5% for the whole of 2010, mebbe reaching 1.5% by the end of next year.

The downgrade (or not) is going to depend on the reaction to the post-election budget, I reckon.

That said, I've called it wrong before plenty times!